WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:39 pm

Image

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Powerful typhoon makes landfall over the southern part of Samar province but should pass north of earthquake devastated cebu but still the islands should see tremendous rains, flooding, and winds... very dangerous as this part of the country rarely experience a direct typhoon landfall...
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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 03, 2013 1:49 pm

What is the population of the area that the forecast track has it moving thru?
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#43 Postby Meow » Sun Nov 03, 2013 2:53 pm

JMA expects it will become a TS within 24 hours.

Image

TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 3 November 2013

<Analyses at 03/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N6°05'(6.1°)
E153°20'(153.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°40'(6.7°)
E148°30'(148.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#44 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 03, 2013 4:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:What is the population of the area that the forecast track has it moving thru?

Cebu alone has 4 million, so probably around over 7 million.
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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 03, 2013 4:59 pm

Here is the 21:00 UTC track.

Image
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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 03, 2013 5:07 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
800 AM CHST MON NOV 4 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W PASSING SOUTH OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK AND
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL...FARAULEP AND WOLEAI
IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL AND FANANU IN
CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF
40 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.5N 152.0E

ABOUT 55 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF FANANU
ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 205 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 560 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 975 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.0
EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 MPH.
MOVEMENT IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK
AROUND MID MORNING TODAY AND VERY CLOSE TO SATAWAL AROUND SUNSET.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATE
TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM CHST.

$$

MCELROY
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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 03, 2013 5:36 pm

31W is organizing fast. Saved images.

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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#48 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:52 pm

Looking at JTWC's forecasted peak of 140 mph, so early in advance, I'd say this has a chance at becoming our fourth Category 5 super typhoon of the season. Hopefully it becomes a typhoon before 30W, so that we can add 1 more storm to our ongoing streak of major typhoons in a row. I think very soon, we'll be exceeding the 2012 WPAC Season in both ACE and number and strength of storms. We're already at our 31st depression with one more month to go before the season ends! :eek:
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#49 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Nov 03, 2013 8:18 pm

HAIYAN naaaaa!!!

WTPQ21 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1330 HAIYAN (1330) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 06.1N 152.2E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 06.9N 148.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 060000UTC 08.2N 143.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 070000UTC 09.8N 137.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 03, 2013 8:47 pm

JTWC 03:00 UTC warning has the peak intensity of Haiyan up to 125kts.

WTPN33 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 6.0N 151.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.0N 151.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 6.2N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 6.6N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 7.1N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 7.9N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.7N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.1N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 6.0N 151.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 31W (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 829 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby stormstrike » Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:20 pm

well here's the prognostic reasoning..
HIGH confidence for extended taus..
max winds increased to 125 kts

WDPN33 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 829 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT IS STEADILY CONSOLIDATING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED
HOWEVER CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI ANIMATION AND FROM A 032339Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS EASILY BEING OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 31W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THAT IS HIGHER THAN
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS FORECAST AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PREVAIL. TS
31W IS FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36 AS IT APPROACHES
THE ISLAND OF YAP. BY TAU 72, TS 31W WILL BE AN INTENSE TYPHOON AT
105 KNOTS JUST NORTHWEST OF PALAU.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS HAIYAN WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
PHILIPPINE SEA WHERE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND SEA
SURFACE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REACH 125 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF
SAMAR, PHILIPPINES. THE LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING
MECHANISM, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby stormstrike » Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:23 pm

Here's the JMA track for TS Haiyan

Forecast winds of 70 kts by 7/00 UTC

Image
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#53 Postby Alyono » Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:04 pm

likelya major disaster in the making
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:06 pm

guam likely to get spared from strong winds and heavy rains with that forecast track but our brothers and sisters in the islands might get the brunt . :(
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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#55 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:24 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What is the population of the area that the forecast track has it moving thru?

Cebu alone has 4 million, so probably around over 7 million.


if you count the total number that will get affected by this large storm, easily as high as 90 million alone in the philippines...
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:32 pm

815
WTPQ33 PGUM 040300
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (31W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
200 PM CHST MON NOV 4 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK
STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40
MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AT LOSAP...FANANU
AND CHUUK.

A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS...ULITHI...YAP AND
NGULU IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL AND FARAULEP IN
YAP STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.0N 151.0E

ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FANANU
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 285 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 915 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 1140 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN
(31W) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE
151.0 EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (31W) IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 13 MPH.
MOVEMENT IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W JUST
SOUTH OF CHUUK AROUND MID MORNING TODAY AND VERY CLOSE TO SATAWAL
AROUND SUNSET.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (31W)
IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN
(31W) IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATE TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
800 PM CHST.

$$

ZIOBRO
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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#57 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:56 pm

euro6208 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What is the population of the area that the forecast track has it moving thru?

Cebu alone has 4 million, so probably around over 7 million.


if you count the total number that will get affected by this large storm, easily as high as 90 million alone in the philippines...

Only SOUTHERN LUZON AND VISAYAS, so about 50 million. Not the whole country will be affected. Still, no matter what, we should stay safe!
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Re: WPAC: 31W - Tropical Depression

#58 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 04, 2013 12:15 am

Only SOUTHERN LUZON AND VISAYAS, so about 50 million. Not the whole country will be affected. Still, no matter what, we should stay safe!



let's not focus on the exact track as winds and rains can cover an enormous area extending hundreds even thousands of miles away from the system center. That is why i said the whole philippines will get affected and likely around 90 million but we'll see...
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 04, 2013 2:14 am

A slight jog to the south, at TS intensity. I expect a slight change in the forecast track, closer to Cebu City. We should pray and I hope to see less than 100 fatalities.

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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

Grifforzer
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Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#60 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:06 am

Storm Warning in this advisory from JMA

75 knots typhoon forecast in sea east of the Philippines in 3 days.

** WTPQ21 RJTD 040600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1330 HAIYAN (1330)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 06.2N 150.4E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 07.8N 145.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 060600UTC 09.2N 140.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 070600UTC 10.9N 133.5E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
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