WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[Tom8]

photos
http://ocha.smugmug.com/photos/swfpopup ... Key=nXWcmp

[supercane4867]

Doesn't look like a powerful typhoon this morning

[Aric Dunn]

yeah no reports really from northern eyewall area where the storm chasers were in tacloban. likely a bit worse off ...

[cycloneye]

I can't believe JB said this:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7 Nov
@HeidiCullen
Are you for real? Of course water is warm, NO typhoons within 100 miles of this since 2008. No stirring of water

[RL3AO]

I can't believe JB said this:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7 Nov
@HeidiCullen
Are you for real? Of course water is warm, NO typhoons within 100 miles of this since 2008. No stirring of water

What led up to it? Of course the water is warm 10 degrees north of the equator. Lets be clear, perfect atmospheric conditions led to this monster, not some unusually warm water.

[supercane4867]

Haiyan was also a very large storm for the region (easy to forget) size-wise. The damage probably extends across several provinces.

In terms of geographic footprint, it was larger than Katrina and about the size of Irene and Ike.

Interesting tweet from Greg Postel claims that Haiyan was much smaller than Katrina

Greg Postel‏@GregPostel15m
Estimates of wind radii much smaller in #Haiyan than in #Katrina (1/2 size), consistent w/ limited observations I saw

[Zanthe]

I can't believe JB said this:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7 Nov
@HeidiCullen
Are you for real? Of course water is warm, NO typhoons within 100 miles of this since 2008. No stirring of water

Yes. It was all warm water. Nothing else effected it at all. And there were never any other typhoons ever in the area ever since before time started. What a joke.

[somethingfunny]

Geographic footprint and wind radii aren't always the same thing. Geographic footprint is just how far the cloud canopy extends, and Haiyan is a big storm. If you recall though, the winds and rain really didn't pick up in most locations until the center was very close. I don't think the "small" wind radii had much of a lessening effect on the storm surge though. The images I've seen imply the surge was at a minimum 5 meters, and likely higher in the areas (like Guiuan, especially Matarinao Bay) that we haven't seen yet.

As for the Bastardi-Cullen thing, I don't understand the issue and I don't think I want to follow it, lol...

I'm concerned about the storm chasers too, and stormstrike, and of course everybody else there too.

Here is another news station's report from a crew that endured the storm in Tacloban:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/video/nation ... er-typhoon

[RL3AO]

Remember that very strong storms generally have a small wind radii. I think Wilma had hurricane winds going out only 15 or 20 miles at its peak. After an EWRC, the wind field generally expands, has we saw with Wilma, Katrina, Sandy, ect. I'm sure the windfield of Haiyan is larger now then it was during landfall.

[cycloneye]

Down to 115kts.

31W HAIYAN 131109 0000 12.3N 116.2E WPAC 115 937

[dexterlabio]

Haiyan underwent EWRC too before its peak. But it didn't do much on the storm's structure or windfield because it was quick, many wouldn't even notice that it happened.

[hurricanes1234]

Hanging on to Category 4 status. Who thinks this'll reintensify again?

[CrazyC83]

It seems to have been pretty steady-state in intensity since leaving the Philippines. Hard to say what it will do, but the RMW is likely quite large now.

[mrbagyo]

death toll : at least 100 on Leyte based on latest reports by ABS-CBN

[CrazyC83]

I just analyzed the videos and Google Earth, and estimate that - at the time of the videos (before the eyewall if it went through Tacloban) the storm surge was about 21 to 25 feet high. The mean elevation in downtown Tacloban is about 16 feet ASL and the surge at that time was 5 to 7 feet high. It may have gone even higher...

[cycloneye]

death toll : at least 100 on Leyte based on latest reports by ABS-CBN

Oh my. Now the news (not good) will come more frequent after more than 24 hours of Haiyans landfall.

Tiny Klout Flag86ABS-CBN News Channel ‏@ANCALERTS 1m
RT @charievilla Only the runway of Tacloban City Airport remain because the entire terminal was destroyed #YolandaPH

[RL3AO]

25ft surge seems logical given just how strong and for how long the winds were building up water. If anything, you would think the fast forward speed of the storm would help increase the surge level. Maybe it limited the length of high winds, but water is such a big part of the tropical cyclone threat, that the forward speed may have meant more damage overall.

[Alyono]

http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-says- ... 00919.html

bodies are in the streets

[cycloneye]

Barely any houses standing in Tacloban City

[RL3AO]

http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-says-least-100-dead-typhoon-haiyan-014400919.html

bodies are in the streets

Surge surge surge. Water water water. Flooding flooding flooding.

Those are the words that should be mentioned over and over again before a storm hits.

Not 190 mph, category 5, and record winds.