WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1721 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Feb 06, 2014 6:33 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:One thing that surprises me is that Haiyan trails Bopha as the costliest typhoon to strike the Philippines.

Haiyan: PHP 36.7 billion (US $827 million)

Bopha: PHP 42.2 billion (US $1.04 billion)

That's wrong by a enormous amount, its over 13 Billion USD. This value comes from the Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report.

Philippines, Super Typhoon Haiyan, $13 billion. Previous record: $2.2 billion, August 2013 floods near Manila.


Haiyan killed over 7,700 people and did at least $13 billion in damage, making it the costliest and deadliest disaster in Philippine history, and Earth's deadliest natural disaster of 2013.


Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2612
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1722 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Feb 09, 2014 3:41 am

Surprising indeed, considering the areas ravaged by Haiyan are more urbanized than the cities in Mindanao hit by Bopha. Tacloban city is the socio-economic capital of the Eastern Visayas region. The cost of all disrupted businesses and industries in that region plus the over-all cost of damage to properties, is easily more than a billion dollars (at least). There is something fishy with the 'official' tally of the Philippines.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1723 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 25, 2014 2:23 pm

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#1724 Postby stormkite » Fri May 09, 2014 2:39 am

Super Typhoon Haiyan Storm Surge Survey Finds High Water Marks 46 Feet High
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:47 PM GMT on May 08, 2014

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2676
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1725 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 14, 2014 11:39 am

Possibly the strongest Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone this planet has ever seen since records began in the WPAC.

Winds of 170 to 190 knots sustained and pressure of below -880 and possibly lower and dvorak off the charts at 8.0 and ADT of 8.1 makes it the 3rd highest dvorak ever for a Tropical Cyclone.

Super Typhoons Gay and Angela of 1992 and 1995 had higher at 8.7 and and 8.3! But other typhoons have come close in Super Typhoon June of 1975 which peaked at 875 mb but dropsonde measured this near the eyewall not in the center of eye where lowest pressure can be found and observed by a pro met that is also a member of this forum and Super Typhoon Forrest of 1982 which dropped 100 mb from 976mb to 876 mb- 100 mb drop in 24 hours, a record worldwide. Both displayed a pinhole eye unlike haiyan...

Sucks that the strongest TC worldwide still is STY TIP (35 years ago ) because Tip was penetrated and these typhoons had no recon which ended in 1987 or had dropsondes missed the center of lowest pressure aka the center of eye...

Too much data lost which would haven been great for studying...
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1726 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu May 15, 2014 8:09 am

euro6208 wrote:Possibly the strongest Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone this planet has ever seen since records began in the WPAC.

Winds of 170 to 190 knots sustained and pressure of below -880 and possibly lower and dvorak off the charts at 8.0 and ADT of 8.1 makes it the 3rd highest dvorak ever for a Tropical Cyclone.

Super Typhoons Gay and Angela of 1992 and 1995 had higher at 8.7 and and 8.3! But other typhoons have come close in Super Typhoon June of 1975 which peaked at 875 mb but dropsonde measured this near the eyewall not in the center of eye where lowest pressure can be found and observed by a pro met that is also a member of this forum and Super Typhoon Forrest of 1982 which dropped 100 mb from 976mb to 876 mb- 100 mb drop in 24 hours, a record worldwide. Both displayed a pinhole eye unlike haiyan...

Sucks that the strongest TC worldwide still is STY TIP (35 years ago ) because Tip was penetrated and these typhoons had no recon which ended in 1987 or had dropsondes missed the center of lowest pressure aka the center of eye...

Too much data lost which would haven been great for studying...

The Dvorak numbers of Gay and Angela were most likely lower than that, but still at 8.0.
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#1727 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu May 15, 2014 8:18 am

Haiyan's pressure could not be lower than 880 mb due to the higher pressures as a result of the STR pushing it in a more south location and having a westward movement. It's pressure could not be lower too due to its fast movement and having a smaller wind radius. This was explained by a pro-met, Alyono.
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#1728 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu May 15, 2014 8:19 am

Its small wind radius resulted in weaker than expected winds over much of Tacloban City, at around 125-130 kts 1-min or 110-115 kts 10-min sustained with category 5 wind gusts, also explained by Alyono. It was a result of my overexaggeration which let me say high-end cat 5, as I have not known about the wind radius yet which led to an argument with me (a weak amateur) and a pro-met. Pressure there was at around 950 mb as the city was about 30 km away from the eye/storm center. Wind duration was quite short due to the typhoon's very fast movement and of the smaller wind radius mentioned earlier.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1729 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu May 15, 2014 8:23 am

The name Yolanda was retired by the PAGASA, and, the name was sebsequently replaced by Yasmin.

In your opinion guys, do you think that the name given by the PAGASA, Yasmin is better than Yolanda? I'm also wondering what would replace Haiyan.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1730 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 16, 2014 7:48 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Possibly the strongest Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone this planet has ever seen since records began in the WPAC.

Winds of 170 to 190 knots sustained and pressure of below -880 and possibly lower and dvorak off the charts at 8.0 and ADT of 8.1 makes it the 3rd highest dvorak ever for a Tropical Cyclone.

Super Typhoons Gay and Angela of 1992 and 1995 had higher at 8.7 and and 8.3! But other typhoons have come close in Super Typhoon June of 1975 which peaked at 875 mb but dropsonde measured this near the eyewall not in the center of eye where lowest pressure can be found and observed by a pro met that is also a member of this forum and Super Typhoon Forrest of 1982 which dropped 100 mb from 976mb to 876 mb- 100 mb drop in 24 hours, a record worldwide. Both displayed a pinhole eye unlike haiyan...

Sucks that the strongest TC worldwide still is STY TIP (35 years ago ) because Tip was penetrated and these typhoons had no recon which ended in 1987 or had dropsondes missed the center of lowest pressure aka the center of eye...

Too much data lost which would haven been great for studying...

The Dvorak numbers of Gay and Angela were most likely lower than that, but still at 8.0.


Nope ADT had 8.7 and 8.3 for Gay and Angela...Haiyan had 8.1! :eek:
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1731 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 16, 2014 7:49 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:The name Yolanda was retired by the PAGASA, and, the name was sebsequently replaced by Yasmin.

In your opinion guys, do you think that the name given by the PAGASA, Yasmin is better than Yolanda? I'm also wondering what would replace Haiyan.


Yasmin is a nice name...

Since haiyan was contributed by china, expect the replacement name to be chinese :D
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#1732 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat May 17, 2014 7:37 am

The NDRRMC updated the damage to PHP 88 billion (likely around $2 billion) which I think is too low, while the NEDA estimates it to be at PHP 581 billion ($13.28 billion) which may be more reasonable. I just hope our infrastracture could be more resilient, maintained and be built properly and to be sturdier. This is just too devastating and sad. We hope that we could be well prepared. We hope that we could rise again.


BANGON MGA HIGALA!
BANGON VISAYAS!
BANGON PILIPINAS!
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#1733 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun May 18, 2014 11:25 am

I can never forget the experience of this storm, though not as severe as those bared by our brothers in areas worse hit, that was horrible. In the happy side though, we made fun of the weird sound of the annoying wind. :D We had no power for 25 hours, which made us feel unusually humid during the storm, mainly above 90% the entire time. Oh well, this storm was a wake-up call for our alertness and resilience.

REGARDING THE STORM'S INTENSITY
It would be better if our RSMC would not use some screwed scale, as it influences our official agency in the country to be very conservative in giving intensities to storm systems. It makes people less prepared and would underestimate a storm. cost us like 20000 lives and destroyed $10 billion instead.

IMO, JMA and PAGASA should revise the intensity of the storm and should NEVER underestimate a storm's intensity again. Would say, 145 kts and 885 mb is accurate and reasonable.
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Re:

#1734 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 18, 2014 7:48 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I can never forget the experience of this storm, though not as severe as those bared by our brothers in areas worse hit, that was horrible. In the happy side though, we made fun of the weird sound of the annoying wind. :D We had no power for 25 hours, which made us feel unusually humid during the storm, mainly above 90% the entire time. Oh well, this storm was a wake-up call for our alertness and resilience.

REGARDING THE STORM'S INTENSITY
It would be better if our RSMC would not use some screwed scale, as it influences our official agency in the country to be very conservative in giving intensities to storm systems. It makes people less prepared and would underestimate a storm. cost us like 20000 lives and destroyed $10 billion instead.

IMO, JMA and PAGASA should revise the intensity of the storm and should NEVER underestimate a storm's intensity again. Would say, 145 kts and 885 mb is accurate and reasonable.


One advice, don't follow it! It's about time we stop quoting them and using their forecasts.

As one pro-met on this board said, JMA uses ISLAND OBS to callibrate the Dvorak scale, basically the same level of absurdity to IMD (Some agency in India) and using 10 min winds is AWFUL plus JMA puts many people at risk for designating storms weaker. They often underestimate storms.

Better to follow 1 min just like NHC/JTWC/CPHC.


Alyono wrote:
yes, their methodology is outlandish... using ISLAND OBS to callibrate the Dvorak scale. That is IMD level of absurdity. However, their Dvorak numbers are usually at least right on line, unlike IMD

As for using 10 min winds... AWFUL for a TC situation. The reason is it can make measuring the peak winds in a fast moving system impossible as one is not in the peak winds for a full 10 minutes.
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#1735 Postby Meow » Mon May 19, 2014 12:56 pm

It is really weird that some people still disagree at 10-minute maximum sustained winds. We still cannot get the actual intensity of any tropical cyclone, so making people getting prepared and using a proper scale are more realistic.

Yes, the Koba table adopted by the Japan Meteorological Agency may be lower for strong systems, but it may be closer to how normal people actually feel. JMA does better job on tropical cyclones than most of other agencies, why should we ignore JMA?

Be realistic and mature, please.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1736 Postby Meow » Mon May 19, 2014 1:05 pm

euro6208 wrote:Yasmin is a nice name...

Since haiyan was contributed by china, expect the replacement name to be chinese :D


As Haiyan is retired, there may be a new Hai- name in the future, possibly something known by Chinese people. Haishen (sea cucumber), Haidan (sea urchin) or Haixing (Starfish) may be choices. :ggreen:
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Re:

#1737 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue May 20, 2014 5:17 am

Meow wrote:It is really weird that some people still disagree at 10-minute maximum sustained winds. We still cannot get the actual intensity of any tropical cyclone, so making people getting prepared and using a proper scale are more realistic.

Yes, the Koba table adopted by the Japan Meteorological Agency may be lower for strong systems, but it may be closer to how normal people actually feel. JMA does better job on tropical cyclones than most of other agencies, why should we ignore JMA?

Be realistic and mature, please.

The KOBA scale has lower estimates than the actual wind recorded. It also resulted with JMA using higher pressures. But as far as I know JMA is still reliable ONLY IN GIVING ESTIMATES TO MIDDLE INTENSITY and uses better technology. It is still a good agency. And if anything, this is very confusing!
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Re: Re:

#1738 Postby Meow » Wed May 21, 2014 12:34 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:The KOBA scale has lower estimates than the actual wind recorded. It also resulted with JMA using higher pressures. But as far as I know JMA is still reliable ONLY IN GIVING ESTIMATES TO MIDDLE INTENSITY and uses better technology. It is still a good agency. And if anything, this is very confusing!

Actually, the new scale adopted by JTWC uses much higher pressure, making Haiyan’s equal to JMA’s estimate, 895 hPa.
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Re: Re:

#1739 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 21, 2014 12:38 am

Meow wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:The KOBA scale has lower estimates than the actual wind recorded. It also resulted with JMA using higher pressures. But as far as I know JMA is still reliable ONLY IN GIVING ESTIMATES TO MIDDLE INTENSITY and uses better technology. It is still a good agency. And if anything, this is very confusing!

Actually, the new scale adopted by JTWC uses much higher pressure, making Haiyan’s equal to JMA’s estimate, 895 hPa.


Do you have a link to this new scale?
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1740 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed May 21, 2014 1:09 am

Meow wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Yasmin is a nice name...

Since haiyan was contributed by china, expect the replacement name to be chinese :D


As Haiyan is retired, there may be a new Hai- name in the future, possibly something known by Chinese people. Haishen (sea cucumber), Haidan (sea urchin) or Haixing (Starfish) may be choices. :ggreen:

Haishen is already in the list, first used in 2002, and is not applicable to be a replacement name for Haiyan.
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