WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1761 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 24, 2014 9:58 pm

Meow wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
Super Typhoon Haiyan at 170 knots.

Winds could be as high as 180-185 knots according to some professional mets.

Who knows. We just have a most accurate value, 8.0.



Image

Yes Dvorak at 8.0 which is the highest they can go but ADT had 8.1 :double:
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1762 Postby Meow » Sat May 24, 2014 10:02 pm

euro6208 wrote:Yes Dvorak at 8.0 which is the highest they can go but ADT had 8.1 :double:

The top of Dvorak technique is officially 8.0. Haiyan may be slightly stronger than 8.0, but I don’t think JTWC would make it 175kt or higher. It is not NHC.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1763 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 24, 2014 10:03 pm

TXPQ25 KNES 071551
TCSWNP

A. 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 10.4N

D. 128.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T8.0/8.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
BASED ON A 19C EYE THAT IS MORE CIRCULAR AND EMBEDDED IN CDG BY AT
LEAST 1 DEGREE. THIS RESULTS IN A MET THAT IS 8.0. WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED
IN CDG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.5 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THERE IS A VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL FEATURE BUT THE WARM EDGE BETWEEN THE TWO IS TECHNICALLY TOO
COLD TO ADD FOR BF. DT IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE DVORAK TECHNIQUE MAKES
NO ALLOWANCE FOR AN EYE EMBEDDED SO DEEPLY IN CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
CDG.
FURTHERMORE ADT V8.1.4 CURRENT INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN 8.0 SINCE
1230Z. FT IS BASED ON MET FOR THESE REASONS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK


Intensity scale just wasn’t designed to handle a storm this strong.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1764 Postby Meow » Sat May 24, 2014 10:09 pm

euro6208 wrote:Intensity scale just wasn’t designed to handle a storm this strong.

I wonder how Vernon Dvorak thinks about Haiyan. T7.5 storms are already rare in the North Atlantic, so I guess Drovak himself did not think that storms over T8.0 are possible.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1765 Postby supercane4867 » Sat May 24, 2014 10:11 pm

Meow wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Yes Dvorak at 8.0 which is the highest they can go but ADT had 8.1 :double:

The top of Dvorak technique is officially 8.0. Haiyan may be slightly stronger than 8.0, but I don’t think JTWC would make it 175kt or higher. It is not NHC.

The NHC won't give any numbers that high based solely on Dvorak analysis also, they were hesitate to upgrade Igor to a Cat.5 only because there was no recon in it.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1766 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 24, 2014 10:12 pm

Meow wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Yes Dvorak at 8.0 which is the highest they can go but ADT had 8.1 :double:

The top of Dvorak technique is officially 8.0. Haiyan may be slightly stronger than 8.0, but I don’t think JTWC would make it 175kt or higher. It is not NHC.


Well NHC has never tracked a storm as strong as haiyan. Atlantic storms rarely get 7.5 or 8.0.
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#1767 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat May 24, 2014 10:30 pm

These arguments are very off-topic. If you want to argue more, don't argue here.
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#1768 Postby Meow » Sat May 24, 2014 10:35 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:These arguments are very off-topic. If you want to argue more, don't argue here.

You are the off-topic one. We are discussing the Dvorak technique to Haiyan.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1769 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 25, 2014 9:54 pm

Will we ever track a typhoon as strong as haiyan in the future?

looking at JTWC best track, there were a few typhoons similiar and some stronger than haiyan but recon was said to overestimate but is it really?

What if recon was correct that storms like haiyan do occur and has occured in the past in the wpac?

The world is stuck in the belief that no tropical cyclones can be stronger than 165 knots but haiyan and a few others have occured in the wpac stronger than that.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun May 25, 2014 10:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1770 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun May 25, 2014 9:59 pm

euro6208 wrote:Will we ever track a typhoon as strong as haiyan in the future?

Probably later this year, and the lower pressures, higher SSTs and lower shear could help develop storms like this.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1771 Postby Meow » Mon May 26, 2014 12:35 am

euro6208 wrote:Will we ever track a typhoon as strong as haiyan in the future?

looking at JTWC best track, there were a few typhoons similiar and some stronger than haiyan but recon was said to overestimate but is it really?

What if recon was correct that storms like haiyan do occur and has occured in the past in the wpac?

The world is stuck in the belief that no tropical cyclones can be stronger than 165 knots but haiyan and a few others have occured in the wpac stronger than that.

There is very few reliable information for typhoons before 1975 or so, and JTWC has claimed that the intensity of many strong storms such as Nancy in 1961 is way too overestimated.

Although Gay in 1992 and Angela in 1995 had similar convection comparing to Haiyan, there is still only one T8.0 storm by both JMA and JTWC as of today, which is definitely Haiyan.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1772 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 31, 2014 11:20 am

Meow wrote:Although Gay in 1992 and Angela in 1995 had similar convection comparing to Haiyan, there is still only one T8.0 storm by both JMA and JTWC as of today, which is definitely Haiyan.


Well I'm talking about the standard dvorak scale for 1 min and there have been a few typhoons that reach 8.0 in some way.

Super Typhoons Gay
Super Typhoon Angela
Super Typhoon Ivan
Super Typhoon Joan...

More on that later.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1773 Postby Meow » Sat May 31, 2014 9:16 pm

euro6208 wrote:Well I'm talking about the standard dvorak scale for 1 min and there have been a few typhoons that reach 8.0 in some way.

Super Typhoons Gay
Super Typhoon Angela
Super Typhoon Ivan
Super Typhoon Joan...

More on that later.

You think they reached, but you haven’t provided any source from JTWC. Haiyan is the only one accepted by JTWC, SSD and JMA.

Satellite imageries are possibly colder in 1990s.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1774 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat May 31, 2014 9:53 pm

Meow wrote:You think they reached, but you haven’t provided any source from JTWC. Haiyan is the only one accepted by JTWC, SSD and JMA.

Satellite imageries are possibly colder in 1990s.

You are definitely spot on in that statement, Meow. Haiyan is the most widely accepted typhoon to be in the 8.0 in the scale. Other storms had disagreements in intensity, one agency is for 8.0, as the other is not. But yes again, Haiyan is completely 8.0 unanimously by the agencies. 1 min is more accurate but I think 10 min is the most important and widely accepted.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1775 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:11 am

Yes many post dvorak analysis shows many typhoons reaching the upper scale of 8.0 (ODT,DT,Manual) and higher but right now can't go through the best track archives. Am too busy with work. If anyone is willing to research go ahead :D
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1776 Postby Meow » Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:55 am

euro6208 wrote:Yes many post dvorak analysis shows many typhoons reaching the upper scale of 8.0 (ODT,DT,Manual) and higher but right now can't go through the best track archives. Am too busy with work. If anyone is willing to research go ahead :D


JTWC’s best track data do not include a T-number.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1777 Postby tolakram » Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:48 pm

Let's keep this on topic or I will have to lock it. This should be about Haiyan and aftermath, you all can discuss other storms and comparisons in a new thread if you want. Thanks.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1778 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:56 pm

Image

Dvorak BD imagery comparing Super Typhoon Angela (left) 1995 at 175-knots maximum estimated intensity vs. Super Typhoon Haiyan at 170-knots.


Haiyan is definitely stronger... :eek:
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1779 Postby Meow » Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:26 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Dvorak BD imagery comparing Super Typhoon Angela (left) 1995 at 175-knots maximum estimated intensity vs. Super Typhoon Haiyan at 170-knots.


Haiyan is definitely stronger... :eek:

The quote is unofficial. JTWC’s best track data give Angela 155-knot.

Based on satellite imageries, Tip is not comparable to Haiyan at all. Gay and Angela may be, but Haiyan had a larger and complete CDG ring and a warmer eye, proving that Haiyan should not be equivalent to the two typhoons in 1990s.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

#1780 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 03, 2014 9:12 pm

Basis for Angela's 175 knots is it's ridiculous high dvorak ODT numbers 8.3 compared with STY haiyan's 8.1...One heck of a typhoon...

Hopefully they do another reanalysis this time comparing all three typhoons, Gay, Angela, and Haiyan and possibly include other typhoons.


http://www.typhoon2000.ph/karl/hoarau001.pdf
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