WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

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WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:21 pm

Here comes another one.

90W INVEST 131109 0000 2.0N 144.0E WPAC 15 1010


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#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:29 pm

Stay away from the Philippines!!!
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Re:

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Stay away from the Philippines!!!


Good news is it wont be very strong but the bad news is the copious amounts of rain it may send to the area.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby ManilaTC » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:55 pm

It just never ends eh?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:14 pm

Look at how close to the equator this is!!! It's virtually right over that 0° line. :eek:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:58 pm

wow another washi type event?

Washi made landfall over mindanao as a TS but caused over 1000 deaths...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:25 am

Image

landfall in the same vicinity where haiyan made landfall... :roll:
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#8 Postby ohno » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:53 am

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.0N 144.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND LOOSELY
ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN
THE OUTER PERIPHERIES. A 082337Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
HIGHLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH SOME BROKEN CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW


From JTWC website. What does it mean?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:04 am

Image

2.0 from the equator!
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#10 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:06 am

Will this have a chance to reach typhoon strength?
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#11 Postby ohno » Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:41 am

from JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 02N 143E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 09, 2013 4:53 am

euro6208 wrote:Image

landfall in the same vicinity where haiyan made landfall... :roll:

That's SOUTH of Haiyan's track.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 09, 2013 9:54 am

90W INVEST 131109 1200 1.9N 141.1E WPAC 15 1010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 01N 142E WEST SLOWLY.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#14 Postby cebuboy » Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:27 am

No more monsters!
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:49 am

Image

moist environment...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:40 pm

good news...both euro and gfs don't develop this at all but tracks the low pressure in almost the same vicinity where haiyan made landfall...the real development will occur in the south china sea...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 09, 2013 2:44 pm

JMA first warning.

TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 9 November 2013
<Analyses at 09/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N1°30'(1.5°)
E141°00'(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N3°05'(3.1°)
E136°30'(136.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

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#18 Postby Meow » Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:35 pm

1.5N... Very close to the equator.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#19 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:19 pm

18Z GFS has weak TS at landfall

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#20 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:22 pm

GFS likely too far north. These equatorial cyclones tend to not move north as fast as the models indicate
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