WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13726
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#61 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:52 am

90W INVEST 131114 0600 11.7N 113.1E WPAC 20 1005

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
117.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 114.8E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN OVERALL BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS. A 140206Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ILL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO
30 KNOTS) WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD INTO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2542
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#62 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Nov 14, 2013 8:20 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1331 PODUL (1331) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 11.9N 111.0E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 10.7N 105.9E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111279
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:05 am

JTWC first warning.

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141151Z NOV 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (PODUL) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 11.8N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 11.3N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.8N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 110.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 141151Z NOV 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 141200).//
NNNN

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13726
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:23 am

20131114 0830 11.8 -112.4 T1.5/1.5 90W 90W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1008.0mb/ 26.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.6 1.7 3.1


WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (PODUL)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294
NM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AS
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BUILD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 140748Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEFINITION OF THE LLCC AS DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE IR
LOOP AS THE CONVECTION IS OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE
SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS WHICH IS COUNTERING
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. TD 32W IS TRACKING WEST ALONG A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD PODUL IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN AFTERWARDS AS THE
LAND EFFECTS ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 24.
DESPITE LANDFALL BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(APPROXIMATELY 27 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
MODERATELY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DESPITE COTC AND GFDN
TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
IS LOW, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE COTC AND GFDN SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2542
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:33 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1331 PODUL (1331)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 150000UTC 12N 108E

MOVE W 15KT

PRES 1006HPA =

A wasted storm...
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13726
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

#66 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 15, 2013 1:59 pm

indeed...wasted storm...

makes me wonder if this was even a tropical storm at all...the LLCC was far removed from the deep convection in it's life and it wasn't really that impressive...even dvorak from PGTW and KNES never got above 2.0...

I wonder what JMA uses to determine storm strength.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Meow

Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

#67 Postby Meow » Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:45 am

euro6208 wrote:indeed...wasted storm...

makes me wonder if this was even a tropical storm at all...the LLCC was far removed from the deep convection in it's life and it wasn't really that impressive...even dvorak from PGTW and KNES never got above 2.0...

I wonder what JMA uses to determine storm strength.

Podul is not wasted. It killed 31 people in Vietnam.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 3005812948
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3283
Age: 16
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

#68 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Nov 20, 2013 1:44 am

euro6208 wrote:indeed...wasted storm...

makes me wonder if this was even a tropical storm at all...the LLCC was far removed from the deep convection in it's life and it wasn't really that impressive...even dvorak from PGTW and KNES never got above 2.0...

I wonder what JMA uses to determine storm strength.

You exaggerate things about always taking JTWC's side. Satellite estimates are not actual estimates.

And whenever you talk about JMA, you always look at the negative side.

No agency is perfect.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

Meow

Re: WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

#69 Postby Meow » Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:14 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:You exaggerate things about always taking JTWC's side. Satellite estimates are not actual estimates.

And whenever you talk about JMA, you always look at the negative side.

No agency is perfect.

Code: Select all

CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF 0.25000000000000E+001


JMA can upgrade a system to a tropical storm when the CI-number is at or above 2.0. RJTD analysed 2.5, so JMA had enough reasons to upgrade.

JTWC did not upgrade Podul to a tropical storm because of CI2.0. A storm has to be CI2.5 to get upgraded by JTWC.

By the way, the remnants of Podul has got another name just now: Helen.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2802
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

#70 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:32 am

^So why did we create a separate thread for Helen if it came from Podul's remnants? 30W remained 30W even in the Indian Ocean.

We're having a lot of storms crossing over lol. Now we have 92W (or 91W?) making it to IO and forecast to become a significant TC.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests