WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:59 pm

Upgraded to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.0N 144.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.0N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092006Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 091220Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK, EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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TD

#22 Postby stormkite » Sat Nov 09, 2013 9:03 pm

This TD if it does develop and follow the projected track and does not encounter shear it has the potential to be a very severe typhoon . It will move over the same water that fueled Haiyan to its immense power. The ocean is very warm to deep depths in the projected area and is the ultimate fuel source for typhoons. It would be ludicrous to play down this TD at this early point of time.



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Re: TD

#23 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 09, 2013 9:46 pm

stormkite wrote:This TD if it does develop and follow the projected track and does not encounter shear it has the potential to be a very severe typhoon . It will move over the same water that fueled Haiyan to its immense power. The ocean is very warm to deep depths in the projected area and is the ultimate fuel source for typhoons. It would be ludicrous to play down this TD at this early point of time.



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I hope not Tacloban! They had enough, Cebu has better infrastructures and less prone to storm surge. We are more prepared but I still hope that the ENTIRE VISAYAS can recover faster.
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#24 Postby stormkite » Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:07 pm

Ditto to that.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#25 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:27 pm

I wouldn't even sacrifice any areas to be hit instead. Let's hope dry air kills it or maybe the STR lets up and recurve this booger away. Enough lives have been lost.


According to some models though, this could be something Mindanao should keep an eye on. From a mere tropical storm (Washi) to a Category 5 (Bopha), this place has proven to be very vulnerable to tropical cyclone hits.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:42 am

Image

slowly consolidating...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.0N
142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.3N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100010Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD SYSTEM THAT IS SLIGHTLY
UNORGANIZED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WEAK, EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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#27 Postby stormkite » Sun Nov 10, 2013 7:58 am

Image


Looks to be positioned in the centre of the trough at the convergence axis atm.




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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:48 am

This is organizing in a fast pace and it has gained latitude as it was almost in the equator when they started to do best track on 90W.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 10, 2013 11:51 am

Image

More rain for devastated palau and philippines...

WTPN21 PGTW 101700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 138.0E TO 9.6N 129.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.3N
140.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 101158Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. A 101200Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND
SOME ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR INDICATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10
KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.5 MB.
THE 10/12Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM KOROR SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT
GRADIENT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
(ALONG 10N LATITUDE) WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111700Z.//
NNNN

TPPN10 PGTW 101534

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (NW OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA)

B. 10/1357Z

C. 3.9N

D. 137.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .35 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.0,
PT IS A 1.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RAPP
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#30 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:28 pm

Looking to be gaining convection quickly. Looks a whole lot better than it did last night when I was looking at this area: :eek:

Image
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#31 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:36 pm

All the global model guidance is not suggesting typhoon strength for this invest when it impacts the Philippines but based on how quickly the invest seems to be spinning up today, still something to watch closely in case it gets stronger than these models are showing.
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Re:

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:All the global model guidance is not suggesting typhoon strength for this invest when it impacts the Philippines but based on how quickly the invest seems to be spinning up today, still something to watch closely in case it gets stronger than these models are showing.


Even if this doesn't get stronger than a Tropical Storm,it will cause problems in terms of the rescue efforts in the areas affected by Haiyan with the rain it could dump.
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#33 Postby Alyono » Sun Nov 10, 2013 3:17 pm

Mindanao

we know how deadly these things are there
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#34 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 10, 2013 5:13 pm

Latest IR loop:

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#35 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Nov 10, 2013 7:02 pm

TD Zaraida from PAGASA

Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "ZORAIDA"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Monday 11 November 2013

The Tropical Depression East of Southern Mindanao has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was named ""ZORAIDA"".

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 950 km Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Coordinates: 5.0°N, 135.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 28 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday morning:
400 km Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur Wednesday morning:
vicinity of Tagbilaran City Thursday morning:
170 km West of Coron, Palawan
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#36 Postby ohno » Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:44 pm

Is this still on?
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#37 Postby ohno » Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:46 pm

doesn't look good in the latest picture.


note: i dont know squat about this things.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#38 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Nov 11, 2013 12:43 am

It looks awful.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#39 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:31 am

dexterlabio wrote:It looks awful.



I agree. It appears to be steadily worsening in that loop above. Maybe shear is killing it. That's good news!!! I don't think these poor, displaced people can withstand either a wind monster or even a convection monster. Let's hope it doesn't strengthen too much.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#40 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:54 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N
136.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH
OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SIGNIFICANT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES. A 110035Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
SLIGHTLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE THE LLCC REMAINS
FAIRLY BROAD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR INDICATE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1005 MB AND A 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.5 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST (ALONG 10N LATITUDE) WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF B (WTPN21
PGTW 101700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
HIGH.



90W INVEST 131111 1200 6.8N 129.9E WPAC 20 1003

very near depression status...
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