ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112116
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:19 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201311171216
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013111706, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013111606, , BEST, 0, 234N, 536W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200,
AL, 98, 2013111612, , BEST, 0, 233N, 534W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200,
AL, 98, 2013111618, , BEST, 0, 233N, 532W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200,
AL, 98, 2013111700, , BEST, 0, 235N, 531W, 35, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200, 1012, 400, 150, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013111706, , BEST, 0, 235N, 532W, 35, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200, 1012, 400, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Thread at Talking Tropics that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115991&start=0

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 750 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS...AND WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THIS LOW TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FIVE-DAY FORMATION
PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE
EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12138
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#2 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:41 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 28N
BETWEEN 50W-55W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N46W TO A 1006 MB LOW AT 25N53W
TO 20N54W TO 17N57W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

#3 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:49 am

I definitely think this will develop. Probably we will see a storm like Chris last year, but maybe a little weaker. It already has gale-force winds.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 60%

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 10:06 am

Latest image. Appears to be acquiring that subtropical look characterised by relatively shallow convection and being generally broad.

Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 60%

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:36 pm

Up to 40%/70%!

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 750 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS LOW TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

I am certain that this will be upgraded to Melissa upon classification. It has tropical storm-force winds! :ggreen:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112116
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 40% / 70%

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:44 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013111718, , BEST, 0, 255N, 531W, 35, 1002, LO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 40% / 70%

#7 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:48 pm

Pressure is dropping fast. Maybe it will be <1000 mbar when it forms. Impressive late-season system.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 40% / 70%

#8 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:50 pm

The SHIPS is forecasting this to peak at 87 knots - a Category 2. That would be amazing if it strengthens to this and becomes our strongest storm, just a week or so before the official end of the season.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112116
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 50% / 70%

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 17, 2013 6:32 pm

Up to 50% in 48 hours

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING WINDS
TO GALE FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS
LOW TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5130
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

#10 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Nov 17, 2013 6:36 pm

Can't see this becoming more than a strong TS. After all it's the 2013 hurricane season! :rofl:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4201
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 50% / 70%

#11 Postby Macrocane » Sun Nov 17, 2013 6:40 pm

This could be a little surprise, most of the models deepen it a lot in terms of pressure, a hurricane is a possibility IMO.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 50% / 70%

#12 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:02 pm

Macrocane wrote:This could be a little surprise, most of the models deepen it a lot in terms of pressure, a hurricane is a possibility IMO.


I agree...given the fact that it has a medium chance of development in 48 hours. If it were a model storm 300 hours away, then I'd have problems believing it. But it is in favourable conditions with light shear and sufficiently warm waters (for a subtropical cyclone).
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112116
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 50% / 70%

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:45 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200, 1008, 400, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2803
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 50% / 70%

#14 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:56 pm

what if this season in the Atlantic is doomed for tropical systems only? haha would be nice to see a subtropical storm spinning in open waters....
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 50% / 70%

#15 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 10:01 pm

A wind speed of 35 knots and a pressure of 1001 mbar is impressive for a system that is merely a consolidating invest. I think this will be very unique when it forms.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2542
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 50% / 70%

#16 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 10:35 pm

Non-tropical invests are common to have lower pressure
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5026
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 50% / 70%

#17 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:14 am

Quite a large low pressure system.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1227
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#18 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:39 am

Code red now!

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
SATELLITE AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE LOW TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...
70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 50% / 70%

#19 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:13 am

Now 2013 is sprinkled onto this. Conditions will not be conducive for much longer.....

AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC.


After all, it's 2013, plus November, right? Only 48 hours to develop and intensify. :(
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112116
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 60% / 70%

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 18, 2013 6:41 am

90% / 90%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER
OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests