ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#81 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:25 pm

Pressure lowered to 984 mbar! :jump: Lovely!
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#82 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 7:54 am

12z Best Track for Melissa.

AL, 14, 2013112112, , BEST, 0, 396N, 364W, 45, 984, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 210, 150, 120, 996, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#83 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:52 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 34.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#84 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:54 am

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1145 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AZORES SOON...

SATELLITE DATA RECEIVED AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE LAST NHC ADVISORY
INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE
SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THAT MELISSA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL LIKELY
REACH THE WESTERN AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.


SUMMARY OF 1145 AM AST...1545 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...40.1N 34.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#85 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:07 am

I guess no warnings for the Azores?
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Re:

#86 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:10 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I guess no warnings for the Azores?


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AZORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
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#87 Postby Hammy » Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:15 am

If they were underestimating the winds by as much as 15mph this was probably a hurricane yesterday.
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Re:

#88 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 1:04 pm

Hammy wrote:If they were underestimating the winds by as much as 15mph this was probably a hurricane yesterday.


That is possible, maybe a 60 kt peak intensity perhaps.
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#89 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 1:57 pm

18z Best Track has pressure down to 980 mbs.

AL, 14, 2013112118, , BEST, 0, 406N, 336W, 55, 980, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 100, 100, 0, 997, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#90 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:23 pm

Tied with Humberto for strongest storm of season!! Melissa is one hell of a unique system! :eek:
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#91 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Melissa now has a new peak. Here's a picture...

Image

I reverse my words about Melissa underachieving. I just thought that yesterday, it was done with. However, the pressure has continued to drop, and is now equivalent to a moderate Category 1! First system I could point out with conviction, that overachieved this season. Humberto simply achieved, and all the rest underachieved.
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#92 Postby HurrMark » Thu Nov 21, 2013 5:21 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Tied with Humberto for strongest storm of season!! Melissa is one hell of a unique system! :eek:


I would hardly call this unique...if this was any other year, this would simply be a run-of-the-mill end-of-season TS that rapidly goes out to sea. This year, with the virutal non-season, I suppose this could be in the running for "storm of the year" if you factor in intensity and formation date.

Now if you want unique, look at Vince (2005).
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#93 Postby HurrMark » Thu Nov 21, 2013 5:21 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Melissa now has a new peak. Here's a picture...

Image

I reverse my words about Melissa underachieving. I just thought that yesterday, it was done with. However, the pressure has continued to drop, and is now equivalent to a moderate Category 1! First system I could point out with conviction, that overachieved this season. Humberto simply achieved, and all the rest underachieved.


Never overachieved...forecasted to peak at 70 mph. I would say achieved.
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#94 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 29.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#95 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:39 pm

R.I.P 2013
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#96 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:52 pm

No!!!!!! :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#97 Postby TheEuropean » Fri Nov 22, 2013 8:37 am

supercane4867 wrote:R.I.P 2013


It's over when it's over. Official end of season is Nov. 30th, really end of season is Dec. 31st ;-)
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#98 Postby TheEuropean » Fri Nov 22, 2013 8:41 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Tied with Humberto for strongest storm of season!! Melissa is one hell of a unique system! :eek:


Do you know when Humberto had its minimum central pressure? NHC and Usisys both have 982 mb:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#99 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Nov 23, 2013 5:39 pm

TheEuropean wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Tied with Humberto for strongest storm of season!! Melissa is one hell of a unique system! :eek:


Do you know when Humberto had its minimum central pressure? NHC and Usisys both have 982 mb:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

It was operationally 982 millibars; however, shortly after it dissipated, the NHC modified its Best Track to indicate a lowest pressure of 980 millibars. We should see this reflected in its Tropical Cyclone Report.

AL, 09, 2013091212, , BEST, 0, 211N, 289W, 75, 980, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 130, 70, 140, 1011, 400, 20, 90, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 180, 90, 180

AL, 09, 2013091212, , BEST, 0, 211N, 289W, 75, 980, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 60, 1011, 400, 20, 90, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 180, 90, 180

AL, 09, 2013091212, , BEST, 0, 211N, 289W, 75, 980, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 30, 1011, 400, 20, 90, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 180, 90, 180

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