ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#61 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:17 pm

Cyclenall wrote:This doesn't make logical sense, there are extratropical storms that are 65 knots and "subtropical" storms at that intensity are possible.


extratropical storms are frontal, cold-core, and are not carried by the hurricane center.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#62 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:23 pm

Let's see if this finally transitions to a tropical storm and strengthens. By analysing the behaviour of Melissa, I think it would probably do so tomorrow morning, seeing that diurnal maximum causes it to acquire deeper convection, and also intensify. The big question is, could this become a hurricane?

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#63 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 5:33 pm

Convection is really weak right now. But the more vertically aligned, and the less shear, the better it is for Melissa, so I suppose this lack of convection is just a 'feature' and not a 'hindrance'. :lol:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#64 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:35 pm

Something of inexplicable proportions is preventing Melissa from intensifying. Quite frankly, it looks really unimpressive on satellite imagery, convection is practically absent now, and the overall structure is fragmented and poorly defined. Not to mention almost no banding or central convection. And so the mysteries of 2013 are ongoing... :roll:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138790
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#65 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:42 pm

00z Best Track down to 50kts.

AL, 14, 2013112000, , BEST, 0, 332N, 532W, 50, 985, SS, 50, NEQ, 80, 80, 50, 60, 1008, 400, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#66 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:45 pm

We obviously know where we're going with this - nowhere. Same exact behaviour like Narda in ePac - false prospects of intensification.

After all, it's 2013, right? Can't wait until this dumb season ends.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#67 Postby stormkite » Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:18 pm

Image



Image
Last edited by stormkite on Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#68 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:24 pm

Looks just like Narda, devoid of proper convection and very disheveled.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#69 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:03 pm

Considering this was supposed to intensify...the NHC forecasts no change in intensity followed by weakening, as a result of this recent trend. I'd go as far as to say that this may even weaken further by the next advisory, considering it has dropped 15 mph in only 6 hours. Of course, there isn't any obvious reason for the weakening, it just happened. I'd be glad if Melissa adds 0 units to ACE, it will just highlight how pathetic this season was.
One thing I must say though, Melissa is indeed a great name for a storm, so that is one of the reasons why I wouldn't call her "pathetic".


NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OR INFORMATION, JUST AN AMETEUR OPINION.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

#70 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:36 pm

Just like basically all the storms this season Melissa underachieves in terms of its forecasted intensity. Was expected to be a 70mph storm tomorrow, now that has all changed and is now only 50mph.

This is the story of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane (or Storm in this case) Season. :sleeping:

You have to give credit to those who were ranting back in July and early August about how this season could be pathetic and below average just by what became of Chantal and Dorian. They basically nailed the forecast for the season!
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19134
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re:

#71 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:58 pm

I am happy Melissa stayed sub-tropical. No more ACE please.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: Re:

#72 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:30 am

Exactly. Would be great if we get 0 units from this. And notice how conditions all of a sudden become hostile, when they were expected to be so good for development and intensification with the SHIPS forecasting an 87-knot Category 2, and most models forecasting at least a minimal hurricane. I just thought that after a season of nothing, we would end with something good, but as usual, it is 2013, so expect nothing. I am so happy this disgraceful joke of a season will be over in a matter of days, and we will leave this behind and start afresh in 2014.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#73 Postby Hammy » Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:20 am

Melissa looks like it's quickly becoming better organized and will probably be tropical later.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ninel conde
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1245
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 2:18 pm

#74 Postby ninel conde » Wed Nov 20, 2013 7:44 am

made a comeback overnight.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
weathernerdguy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Age: 21
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:44 pm

#75 Postby weathernerdguy » Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:29 am

it looks great now
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#76 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:19 am

Stronger, but I dunno about tropical.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheEuropean
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1793
Age: 58
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
Location: Voerde, Germany
Contact:

#77 Postby TheEuropean » Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:36 am

Now it counts, Melissa is tropical:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013

...MELISSA ACQUIRES TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 47.7W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
0 likes   

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#78 Postby HurrMark » Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:10 am

Still going to lower the average ACE again unless it does something remarkable in the next 24 hours...
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#79 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 4:21 pm

Weakened again to 50 mph. Looks good on satellite imagery, but more detailed imagery revealed the structure is a bit of a mess. I can't understand why this system has such a serious problem with diurnal minimum.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138790
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#80 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:11 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 14, 2013112100, , BEST, 0, 375N, 435W, 45, 984, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 210, 150, 120, 1000, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests