ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#41 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:04 pm

The NHC lowered the forecast a little. They now show a post-tropical cyclone as soon as it begins to weaken, keep it at its forecasted peak for a shorter time, and have just mentioned that the convection is asymmetric. I'd currently give Melissa a 10-15% chance of no further intensification.

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#42 Postby Hammy » Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:29 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:They now show a post-tropical cyclone as soon as it begins to weaken,


as far as moving up the ET transition that may simply be due to the passage of time, since the forecasts beyond 48 hours are in 24 hour intervals, it could always have been thought to transition right after the 48 hour mark. As far as intensification, I'm withdrawing what I said earlier about the possibility of intensification, as not only are models trending weaker but the ASCAT also does not show as strong of winds as it did earlier.
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#43 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:51 pm

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#44 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:42 am

Convection activity remain unimpressive that the system is still decidedly subtropical at the moment

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#45 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:01 am

Looks like it's about 45-50 mph now, probably weakening further for the next 12-18 hours.

edit: several 55kt barbs on OSCAT http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/oscat_images/cur_golf/zooms/WMBas98.png
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#46 Postby stormkite » Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:45 am

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION 29.7N 54.7W

00UTC 19.11.2013 29.7N 54.7W MODERATE

12UTC 19.11.2013 31.6N 54.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.11.2013 34.0N 52.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.11.2013 36.5N 48.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.11.2013 39.2N 42.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.11.2013 41.4N 36.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#47 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 5:28 am

Melissa has intensified to a 65 mph subtropical storm. Convection has deepened a little, and I am quite impressed by this still being subtropical, yet fairly close to hurricane strength (74 mph). Also note the pressure of 982 mbar, 2 mbar higher than Henriette in the eastern Pacific earlier this year, when it had just become a Category 2.

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#48 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:57 am

12z Best Track remains as Subtropical.

AL, 14, 2013111912, , BEST, 0, 315N, 547W, 55, 982, SS, 50, NEQ, 100, 100, 50, 60, 1010, 450, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#49 Postby HurrMark » Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:48 am

ACE is still zero. The question is, if this never becomes fully tropical, will it count in the annual statistics. I would think no (1997 had a subtropical storm, but was not counted).
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#50 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:21 am

HurrMark wrote:ACE is still zero. The question is, if this never becomes fully tropical, will it count in the annual statistics. I would think no (1997 had a subtropical storm, but was not counted).


Subtropical storms ARE counted in the season stats, just not ACE

There were 8 storms in 1997, including the subtropical storm
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#51 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:26 am

With pressure likely to drop below 980mb Melissa is becoming the deepest storm of the season
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#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:29 am

Crazy that a November high-latitude hybrid will be the strongest storm of the season pressure-wise...
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#53 Postby HurrMark » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:33 am

Alyono wrote:
HurrMark wrote:ACE is still zero. The question is, if this never becomes fully tropical, will it count in the annual statistics. I would think no (1997 had a subtropical storm, but was not counted).


Subtropical storms ARE counted in the season stats, just not ACE

There were 8 storms in 1997, including the subtropical storm


Ah OK, I was just going by Wikipedia. So in other words, all this storm is going to do is lower the average ACE/storm?
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#54 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:47 pm

I wonder if this could gain 65 kt+ winds while remaining subtropical...now that would be a rarity to have a hurricane of subtropical status...
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Re:

#55 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:43 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I wonder if this could gain 65 kt+ winds while remaining subtropical...now that would be a rarity to have a hurricane of subtropical status...


I believe that if a system becomes a hurricane while it is subtropical it is automatically designated as tropical and thus becomes a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:04 pm

18z Best Track remains as Subtropical.

AL, 14, 2013111918, , BEST, 0, 324N, 544W, 55, 982, SS
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:04 pm

Alyono wrote:
HurrMark wrote:ACE is still zero. The question is, if this never becomes fully tropical, will it count in the annual statistics. I would think no (1997 had a subtropical storm, but was not counted).


Subtropical storms ARE counted in the season stats, just not ACE

There were 8 storms in 1997, including the subtropical storm

That's the way I like it, because I don't want any more ACE padders for this season...leave it so future generations can see how awful it was.

HurrMark wrote:Ah OK, I was just going by Wikipedia. So in other words, all this storm is going to do is lower the average ACE/storm?

I guess so lol.

CrazyC83 wrote:I wonder if this could gain 65 kt+ winds while remaining subtropical...now that would be a rarity to have a hurricane of subtropical status...

I want to see a subtropical hurricane, I don't think its happened before. Along with it being the lowest in pressure (a guess) of the season, this would be the only interesting S/TC in the Atlantic during 2013...of course in mid November. Sucky seasons usually do this (think Ida of 2009).

Hammy wrote:I believe that if a system becomes a hurricane while it is subtropical it is automatically designated as tropical and thus becomes a hurricane.

Source? This doesn't make logical sense, there are extratropical storms that are 65 knots and "subtropical" storms at that intensity are possible.
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Re: Re:

#58 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:05 pm

Hammy wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I wonder if this could gain 65 kt+ winds while remaining subtropical...now that would be a rarity to have a hurricane of subtropical status...


I believe that if a system becomes a hurricane while it is subtropical it is automatically designated as tropical and thus becomes a hurricane.


Subtropical Storm One (1979) - 65kt

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#59 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:17 pm

I'd personally give Melissa a 30% chance of no more strengthening. If by 3z, the intensity is the same (which I am pretty sure it would be), I will increase the chances of no more strengthening by 15-20%. With waning convection and barely any time left, the prospects of further deepening, in my opinion, are becoming less realistic. I still think it can strengthen, like this morning, when diurnal maximum arrives again, but after that, it's probably going to go downhill due to shear, etc.

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#60 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:56 pm

I hope Melissa isn't getting crushed or elongated. That wouldn't be good, because it would mean that it's weakening. :oops: :( :roll:

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