ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#61 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:17 pm

Cyclenall wrote:This doesn't make logical sense, there are extratropical storms that are 65 knots and "subtropical" storms at that intensity are possible.


extratropical storms are frontal, cold-core, and are not carried by the hurricane center.
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#62 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:23 pm

Let's see if this finally transitions to a tropical storm and strengthens. By analysing the behaviour of Melissa, I think it would probably do so tomorrow morning, seeing that diurnal maximum causes it to acquire deeper convection, and also intensify. The big question is, could this become a hurricane?

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#63 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 5:33 pm

Convection is really weak right now. But the more vertically aligned, and the less shear, the better it is for Melissa, so I suppose this lack of convection is just a 'feature' and not a 'hindrance'. :lol:
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#64 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:35 pm

Something of inexplicable proportions is preventing Melissa from intensifying. Quite frankly, it looks really unimpressive on satellite imagery, convection is practically absent now, and the overall structure is fragmented and poorly defined. Not to mention almost no banding or central convection. And so the mysteries of 2013 are ongoing... :roll:
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#65 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:42 pm

00z Best Track down to 50kts.

AL, 14, 2013112000, , BEST, 0, 332N, 532W, 50, 985, SS, 50, NEQ, 80, 80, 50, 60, 1008, 400, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M
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#66 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:45 pm

We obviously know where we're going with this - nowhere. Same exact behaviour like Narda in ePac - false prospects of intensification.

After all, it's 2013, right? Can't wait until this dumb season ends.
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#67 Postby stormkite » Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:18 pm

Image



Image
Last edited by stormkite on Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#68 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:24 pm

Looks just like Narda, devoid of proper convection and very disheveled.
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#69 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:03 pm

Considering this was supposed to intensify...the NHC forecasts no change in intensity followed by weakening, as a result of this recent trend. I'd go as far as to say that this may even weaken further by the next advisory, considering it has dropped 15 mph in only 6 hours. Of course, there isn't any obvious reason for the weakening, it just happened. I'd be glad if Melissa adds 0 units to ACE, it will just highlight how pathetic this season was.
One thing I must say though, Melissa is indeed a great name for a storm, so that is one of the reasons why I wouldn't call her "pathetic".


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#70 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:36 pm

Just like basically all the storms this season Melissa underachieves in terms of its forecasted intensity. Was expected to be a 70mph storm tomorrow, now that has all changed and is now only 50mph.

This is the story of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane (or Storm in this case) Season. :sleeping:

You have to give credit to those who were ranting back in July and early August about how this season could be pathetic and below average just by what became of Chantal and Dorian. They basically nailed the forecast for the season!
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Re:

#71 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:58 pm

I am happy Melissa stayed sub-tropical. No more ACE please.
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Re: Re:

#72 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:30 am

Exactly. Would be great if we get 0 units from this. And notice how conditions all of a sudden become hostile, when they were expected to be so good for development and intensification with the SHIPS forecasting an 87-knot Category 2, and most models forecasting at least a minimal hurricane. I just thought that after a season of nothing, we would end with something good, but as usual, it is 2013, so expect nothing. I am so happy this disgraceful joke of a season will be over in a matter of days, and we will leave this behind and start afresh in 2014.
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#73 Postby Hammy » Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:20 am

Melissa looks like it's quickly becoming better organized and will probably be tropical later.
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#74 Postby ninel conde » Wed Nov 20, 2013 7:44 am

made a comeback overnight.
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#75 Postby weathernerdguy » Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:29 am

it looks great now
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#76 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:19 am

Stronger, but I dunno about tropical.
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#77 Postby TheEuropean » Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:36 am

Now it counts, Melissa is tropical:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013

...MELISSA ACQUIRES TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 47.7W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#78 Postby HurrMark » Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:10 am

Still going to lower the average ACE again unless it does something remarkable in the next 24 hours...
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#79 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 4:21 pm

Weakened again to 50 mph. Looks good on satellite imagery, but more detailed imagery revealed the structure is a bit of a mess. I can't understand why this system has such a serious problem with diurnal minimum.
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#80 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:11 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 14, 2013112100, , BEST, 0, 375N, 435W, 45, 984, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 210, 150, 120, 1000, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,
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