ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

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ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 18, 2013 9:48 am

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013

...SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 53.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 18, 2013 3:54 pm

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

...MELLISSA STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 54.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON TUESDAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445
KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MELISSA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF MELISSA...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE INNER-CORE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A
TROPICAL STORM. IN ADDITION...EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES AT 1314Z AND
1408Z INDICATED THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED
DOWN TO LESS THAN 80 NMI AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-51 KT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...BOTH OVERPASSES MISSED THE INNER
CORE WIND FIELD...WHICH MEANS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS COULD
BE SMALLER AND THE PEAK WINDS COULD BE STRONGER. AFTER MELISSA
PASSED JUST EAST OF DRIFTING BUOY 41999 AT 1000Z...WHICH REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 989.4 MB...THE PRESSURE AT THE BUOY HAS REMAINED AT OR
BELOW 993 MB SINCE ABOUT 1400Z AS MELISSA HAS MOVED FARTHER
AWAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE COULD STILL BE DEEPENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 36 H.
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 H. MELISSA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
SEPARATE ENTITY THROUGH 120 H AND NOT BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRACK IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

MELISSA HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. ALTHOUGH SSTS WILL BE
DECREASING FROM THE CURRENT 27C TO AROUND 22-23C BY 36-48 H...THE
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR -13C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN A
TYPICAL TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...AND THAT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THE FORMATION OF ADDITONAL CONVECTION IN
THE INNER CORE REGION. AS A RESULT...MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE 850-200
MB VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DROP SHARPLY FROM THE CURRENT 30 KT TO
LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE 18-24 H TIME FRAME...AND THAT IS WHEN THE
CYCLONE COULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN OBTAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS AS
MELISSA MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C...INTO A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 29.8N 54.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 30.7N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 32.3N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 34.9N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 38.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 44.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1800Z 50.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1800Z 57.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 18, 2013 9:58 pm

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

...MELISSA CONTINUES AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 54.7W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

DEEP CONVECTION IN MELISSA REMAINS QUITE ASYMMETRIC WITH A NARROW
BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 60-90 NM ALONG
WITH A LARGER BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE A FEW HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MELISSA REMAINS
INTERTWINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THUS A SUBTROPICAL STORM
STATUS STILL APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. A TIMELY 0030 UTC
PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS PROVIDED PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT. THIS
ALONG WITH THE TAFB HEBERT-POTEAT SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF
3.0...45-50 KT...HELPED TO DETERMINE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KT.

MELISSA IS MOVING AT 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD VEER
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA CURRENT HELPS KICK OUT MELISSA
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR...BUT THEN DIVERGES DEPENDING IN PART ON
HOW MUCH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. THE GFS AND DEPENDENT
MESOSCALE HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER TRANSITION...WHICH
THEN WRAPS MELISSA NORTHWARD QUICKER. THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM KEEP
MELISSA FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND DISSIPATE IT BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THREE DAYS...BUT THEN FASTER AND
FARTHER EAST THEREAFTER. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRACK IS BASED IN LARGE
PART UPON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

MELISSA HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO LESSEN FOR ABOUT A DAY
WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER LUKEWARM WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ENOUGH CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE TO
DEVELOP FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR...AS ALSO INDICATED BY THE
FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE
RAPIDLY DROPPING SSTS THAT MELISSA WILL ENCOUNTER COUPLED WITH MUCH
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CEASE.
THUS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW IS INDICATED AT 48
HOURS...EVEN THOUGH A FULL EXTRATROPICAL STAGE IS PREDICTED TO
OCCUR AROUND THREE DAYS. BY DAY FIVE...MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALSO ALLOWED FOR A MORE CONFIDENT
ASSESSMENT OF THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 30.3N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 31.3N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 33.6N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 36.4N 48.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 39.8N 43.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/0000Z 46.0N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0000Z 53.5N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 19, 2013 5:58 am

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

...MELISSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND TURNS NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 54.6W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES




SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

MELISSA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE CYCLONE IS NOT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION...A FEW
BANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD
TO 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
CONTRACTING WHILE IT SEPARATES FROM THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS COULD ALLOW
MELISSA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AND TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD COME TO AN END IN 24 TO 36 HOURS
WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER
AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 18 C.

THE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH...WITH THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 360/8 KT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
MOVING CLOSER TO MELISSA...AND WILL HELP ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THERE IS A NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW THE POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT OF MELISSA INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CYCLONE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH OR LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW THE CYCLONE
MOVING MORE EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES. THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE
TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 31.2N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 32.6N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 35.3N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 38.4N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/0600Z 46.5N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0600Z 52.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:43 am

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

...MELISSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 54.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES



SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MELISSA
IS LOCATED ABOUT 20 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE INNER
CORE REGION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FROM THE ELONGATED PARENT CLOUD
BAND THAT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF MELISSA. THESE INDICATORS
SUGGEST THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED
ON A 55-KT SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING BERMUDA FROM THE
WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MELISSA NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY
96-120 HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND CEASE TO EXIST
AS A SEPARATE ENTITY. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
JUXTAPOSED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE AT ITS LOWEST VALUE OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS SHOULD
HELP MELISSA TO TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT MELISSA COULD OBTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE
THE CYCLONE REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MOVES INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND WERE COORDINATED WITH
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 31.9N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 33.9N 52.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 36.6N 48.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 39.5N 43.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 42.2N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1200Z 46.5N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1200Z 53.2N 26.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:47 pm

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

...MELISSA TURNS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...COULD STILL TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 53.7W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

MELISSA APPEARS TO BE ON THE CUSP OF MAKING THE TRANSITION FROM A
SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. TWO EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES
CAPTURED THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH INDICATED
THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD HAD WEAKENED AND THAT THE INNER-CORE WIND
FIELD HAD CONTRACTED INWARD WITH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS NOW AT
ABOUT 40-50 NMI. IN ADDITION...AN 1119 UTC AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED
THAT A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THESE SATELLITE INDICATORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
MELISSA WAS NOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE AMSU DATA ALSO
REVEALED THAT THERE WAS STILL A STRATOSPHERIC CONNECTION TO THE
WARM CORE. THIS...PLUS THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ARGUES FOR KEEPING MELISSA A
SUBTROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE ASCAT PASSES MISSED THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LIKELY OCCURRING IN SOME
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT
BASED ON A SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...AND
EARLIER 53-56 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 040/14 KT. MELISSA HAS FINALLY
MADE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AND MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 4-5 DAYS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DROPPED SHARPLY TO ABOUT 7 KT...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE LOW- AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS TO
FINALLY BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THE ONLY THING PREVENTING
MELISSA FROM MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. HOWEVER...SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION WOULD ALLOW
MELISSA TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND ALSO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A
TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER
AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. BY 48 HOURS...INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND ALSO CAUSE
MELISSA TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

TRACK...INTENSITY... AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE WERE COORDINATED WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 33.0N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 34.9N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 37.4N 46.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 40.1N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 42.4N 35.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 47.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z 53.5N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:46 pm

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MELISSA IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN A FEW
HOURS AGO...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MORE
TROPICAL THAN EARLIER...SO IT IS BEING KEPT AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH ASCAT
DATA AND THE LATEST TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. ALTHOUGH MELISSA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS SOON...A LARGE INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND SOME NON-TROPICAL FORCING COULD OFFSET THE
DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES. THUS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NHC PREDICTION...AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MELISSA COULD
STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE MOVING
OVER COLDER WATERS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS DUE
TO EXTREMELY COLD WATER AND LOSS OF BAROCLINIC FORCING. MELISSA IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS
DUE TO THE COLDER WATERS...AND INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA ACCELERATING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48H AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE LATEST CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...
AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW AND/OR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHIN
96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 33.6N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 35.7N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 38.4N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 40.8N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0000Z 43.0N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0000Z 48.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0000Z 54.0N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:14 am

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013

A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF MELISSA SINCE ABOUT 0400 UTC. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT MELISSA COULD BE NEARING THE EXPECTED TRANSITION FROM A
SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL STORM. NONETHELESS...THE STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED...BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWING THE
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C.

MELISSA IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/20. A CONTINUED FAST NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE MELISSA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. DISSIPATION IS NOW
PREDICTED TO OCCUR IN 4 DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 34.8N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 36.8N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 39.3N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 41.4N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0600Z 43.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0600Z 45.0N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:20 pm

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH IS
WRAPPED BY A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
EARLIER TODAY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...AND ALSO
INDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRIC WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN A LITTLE
SUPPORTING THE REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERIES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED...
MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN
ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.

MELISA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060 DEGREES AT
26 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. SINCE THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE
MUCH...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR
SOONER. THE NHC FOREAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 37.2N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 39.0N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 41.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/0600Z 42.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 22/1800Z 43.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/1800Z 42.0N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013

...MELISSA SPEEDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 42.1W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF
MELISSA... THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS A BIT WEAKER THAN EARLIER
TODAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING
THE WINDS AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF MELISSA FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...DESPITE THE STORM MOVING OVER RATHER COLD WATERS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE MITIGATING FACTORS OF A DIVERGENT AND
COLD UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW SHEAR. NONETHELESS...
IT IS HARD TO SEE MELISSA REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS SUB-18C WATERS. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED IN 36H OR SO AS MELISSA ENCOUNTERS A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

MELISSA IS ZIPPING ALONG TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KT.
THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE TRACK SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH OF
A CUTOFF LOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT
DIRECTION.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AZORES LATE TOMORROW AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 38.1N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 39.6N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 41.2N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/1200Z 42.4N 25.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/0000Z 42.8N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0000Z 41.0N 16.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 5:20 am

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

EVEN THOUGH MELISSA IS CURRENTLY OVER QUITE COOL 21 C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND IS
HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE MAIN REASONS THE STORM IS
ABLE TO REMAIN TROPICAL OVER THE COOL WATER IS BECAUSE OF THE
COMBINED FACTORS OF A COLD AIRMASS ALOFT AND FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR.
THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. MOST OF THE
MODELS SHOW MELISSA CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES OVER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 20 C. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

MELISSA CONTINUES TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KT EMBEDDED IN
THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO
THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...FOLLOWING THE LATEST
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AZORES LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 39.1N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 40.2N 33.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 41.5N 27.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/1800Z 42.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/0600Z 42.2N 19.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0600Z 40.0N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:51 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 34.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

MELISSA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...AS SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT SOME COLD AIR
HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...
BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT IT HAS PENETRATED THE INNER CORE.
MELISSA WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 17-18
DEGREES CELSIUS LATER TODAY AND THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WEST
OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD WRAP FURTHER AROUND THE CIRCULATION...CAUSING
MELISSA TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEAST AT 28 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD IN WEAKER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND LITTLE
CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 40.0N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 41.1N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 22/1200Z 42.0N 24.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0000Z 42.2N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1200Z 41.2N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:53 am

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1145 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AZORES SOON...

SATELLITE DATA RECEIVED AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE LAST NHC ADVISORY
INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE
SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THAT MELISSA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL LIKELY
REACH THE WESTERN AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.


SUMMARY OF 1145 AM AST...1545 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...40.1N 34.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 32.1W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013

MELISSA IS HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE IT MOVING OVER
COLD WATERS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES
NEAR THE CENTER AND IN ONE PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTION IS ON THE WAY DOWN...WITH THE BAND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
MORE RAGGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY START TO WEAKEN
TOMORROW WHEN IT ENTERS A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A MIX OF THE
PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT MELISSA WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TOMORROW...AND EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY
OR SO WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALL OF THE MODELS
SHOW MELISSA OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH WITHIN 3 DAYS.

THE LATEST MOTION IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AROUND 24
KT. MELISSA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD TOMORROW AND SLOW AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A RIDGE INTO WEAKER STEERING FLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TAKE A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
AROUND THAT RIDGE BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 40.9N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 41.7N 27.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 22/1800Z 42.2N 22.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 41.8N 18.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 40.5N 16.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:35 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 29.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013

MELISSA HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 9 HOURS. IT
IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT WAS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION...AND IT IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 17C-18C. BASED ON THIS...MELISSA HAS BECOME A
GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO 45 KT BASED ON TWO RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES...AND THE
INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED USING THESE DATA. WHILE
THE CYCLONE IS POST-TROPICAL...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/24. MELISSA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AND
DECELERATE ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE INTO WEAKER STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN END OF THE
RIDGE.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
MELISSA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 41.5N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/1200Z 42.1N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 23/0000Z 42.2N 20.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/1200Z 41.4N 17.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0000Z 39.9N 15.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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