SIO: ALESSIA - Ex-Tropical Cyclone

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Re: SIO: Alessia - Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:37 pm

Image

45 knots...

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 123.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALESSIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A PARTIAL 221513Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE AND A PARTIAL 221837Z AMSU-B 89
GHZ IMAGE DEPICT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER,
PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH
TAU 36 AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. TC ALESSIA IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
THEREAFTER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF A DEVELOPING HIGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND TURN IT EQUATORWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, WHICH INDICATE A TURN SOUTHWARD NEAR
THE WESTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO THE DEVELOPING
HIGH AND PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION, REGENERATION OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA IS UNLIKELY. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST DUE THE SHARP DIFFERENCES IN THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN
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#22 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:08 am

This has made landfall
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Re: SIO: Alessia - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Nov 23, 2013 10:04 am

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Alessia

Issued at 10:48 pm CST Saturday 23 November 2013.

Image

Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Alessia is being affected by dry air and is struggling to maintain its intensity. Gales may still
develop along the northern Kimberley coast this evening and overnight into Sunday as the system brushes the
northern Kimberley coast in the vicinity of Kalumburu. During Sunday it is likely to approach the west coast of
the Top End as a tropical low or weak tropical cyclone.

In the Kimberley, rainfall from this system is likely to be confined to coastal areas with rainfall totals expected
to be less than is typical with a tropical low or cyclone. Over the Top End, rain and storms with isolated heavy
falls may lead to localised flooding as the system makes landfall and moves inland.
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Re: SIO: Alessia - Tropical Cyclone

#24 Postby stormkite » Sat Nov 23, 2013 9:29 pm

jaguarjace wrote:AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Alessia

Issued at 10:48 pm CST Saturday 23 November 2013.

Image

Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Alessia is being affected by dry air and is struggling to maintain its intensity. Gales may still
develop along the northern Kimberley coast this evening and overnight into Sunday as the system brushes the
northern Kimberley coast in the vicinity of Kalumburu. During Sunday it is likely to approach the west coast of
the Top End as a tropical low or weak tropical cyclone.

In the Kimberley, rainfall from this system is likely to be confined to coastal areas with rainfall totals expected
to be less than is typical with a tropical low or cyclone. Over the Top End, rain and storms with isolated heavy
falls may lead to localised flooding as the system makes landfall and moves inland.





Where's the dry Air ?
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Re: SIO: Alessia - Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Nov 24, 2013 9:31 am

stormkite wrote:Where's the dry Air ?

Dry air has been pushing towards the southwest of the storm.
Image
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Re: SIO: ALESSIA - Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Nov 24, 2013 9:34 am

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alessia

Issued at 10:45 pm CST Sunday 24 November 2013.

Image

Remarks:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alessia made landfall near the Daly River Mouth at 6:30pm CST and has now weakened
below cyclone strength, with winds near the centre below GALE force.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause localised flooding and may lead to significant stream rises in the Darwin-Daly,
Arnhem and western Roper-McArthur Districts as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alessia moves across the Top End.
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Re: SIO: ALESSIA - Tropical Cyclone

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 24, 2013 11:21 am

Image

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 129.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALESSIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED ACROSS THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF AS IT
MAINTAINED SYMMETRY. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TERRITORY SOUTH OF DARWIN TO MAKE ONE FINAL
LANDFALL BEOFRE TAU 12. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. TC ALESSIA IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 11 FEET. //
NNNN
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Re: SIO: ALESSIA - Ex-Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Nov 25, 2013 6:21 pm

Models develop Alessia again. Looks like the centre has reached the Gulf of Carpentaria.
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Re: SIO: ALESSIA - Ex-Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:49 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S
136.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 136.7E, APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH
OF GOVE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS IT HAS TRACKED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. A RECENT 260030Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS SYMMETRICALLY STRUCTURED WITH WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE INDICATES THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS FRAGMENTED AS THE LLCC TRACKS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR A RIDGE AXIS, WITH LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BUT WITH THE
LLCC APPROACHING LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: SIO: ALESSIA - Ex-Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:40 pm

I'd suspect these Carpentaria waters are warm, since they aren't mixed up often.
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#31 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 26, 2013 6:43 pm

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Re: SIO: ALESSIA - Ex-Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:30 pm

At 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alessia, was estimated to be
100 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 250 kilometres west northwest
of Mornington Is and is slow moving.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alessia is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone
later today if it remains over Gulf of Carpentaria waters. The tropical cyclone
is expected to remain close to the coast during the next two days.

Image

Image
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#33 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:39 pm

its already a TC though! Cannot beat surface observations
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#34 Postby stormkite » Wed Nov 27, 2013 2:41 am

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 2:28 pm CST [2:58 pm EST] on Wednesday 27 November 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Port Roper in the
Northern Territory to Karumba, including Mornington Island in Queensland.

At 12:30 pm CST [1:00 pm EST] Tropical Cyclone Alessia, was estimated to be 115
kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 230 kilometres west northwest of
Mornington Island and is moving southeast at 8 kilometres per hour parallel to
the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Alessia has redeveloped into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
along the Northern territorty coast between Port McArthur and the Queensland
Border. Gales are expected to extend east to Mornington Island in Queensland
tonight and possibly further to Kurumba early on Thursday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING on the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria coast between Port McArthur and Karumba tonight and tomorrow.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause localised flooding in the Roper-McArthur District
and coastal areas in Queensland Gulf Country west of Mornington Island during
today and Thursday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alessia at 12:30 pm CST [1:00 pm EST]:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 137.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Wednesday 27 November [5:30 pm
EST Wednesday 27 November].


http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR362.loop.shtml
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#35 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:19 am

looks like a short-lived redevelopment

Image
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Re: SIO: ALESSIA - Ex-Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 6:01 pm

Wow! Some seriously deep convection there. :eek:

Image
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Re: SIO: ALESSIA - Ex-Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Nov 30, 2013 10:06 pm

Latest satellite image; first day of summer.
Image
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