BOB: LEHAR - Tropical Cyclone

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euro6208
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Re: BOB: LEHAR - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:48 am

05B LEHAR 131126 1200 12.9N 88.6E IO 75 967

Remains a 75 knots system but peak intensity lowered to 90 knots before landfall...

REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 88.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (LEHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTHEAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED WITH
WELL DEFINED BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. MOST
RECENTLY THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER HAS EXPANDED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE TRACK REMAINS STEADY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STR AXIS, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A SUPPORTIVE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TC 05B WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AROUND THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48, WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INTO CENTRAL INDIA. COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE
LLCC IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING WITHIN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

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hurricanes1234
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#22 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:27 pm

Weakened unexpectedly to 70 knots, and unlikely in my opinion to restrengthen, but that's good news for India. Conditions simply aren't good, as Alyono stated previously. There's relatively dry air from the mainland, as well as strong shear of 15-20 knots. The dry air cannot be seen in SSD water vapour imagery, though.

05B LEHAR 131126 1800 13.2N 88.1E IO 70 975


THE PRECEDING WAS ONLY MY OPINION, AND NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OR INFORMATION.
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#23 Postby weathernerdguy » Wed Nov 27, 2013 3:35 pm

this storm is done.. 40 knots now.
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#24 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:58 pm

collapsing just as expected
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Re: BOB: LEHAR - Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Nov 27, 2013 11:15 pm

LOL...impacts on land should be minimum

Image
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And that's the way it was

#26 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Nov 28, 2013 5:59 am

Alyono wrote:collapsing just as expected

Alyono 1 -- JTWC 0

:wink:
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