BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

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Re:

#41 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 08, 2013 12:39 am

weathernerdguy wrote:what did the 11.8 meant?


11.8 is the latitude.

update
DATE/ TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/0230 UTC 12.0N 84.6E T4.5/4.5 MADI
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Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#42 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Dec 08, 2013 1:56 am

Cyclone Madi at 65kt with outflow enhanced by subtropical jet

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#43 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 08, 2013 2:22 am

Rapid intensification .

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Re:

#44 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 08, 2013 2:57 am

Alyono wrote:I'm thinking my 95 KT peak forecast is going to be well too low


Image


Think 95 KT peak will be to high

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Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#45 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Dec 08, 2013 4:23 am

India Meteorological Department
BOB08-2013/Advisory no. 15

At 11:30 AM IST, the severe cyclonic storm MADI over southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly north northeastward, intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and now lays center near 12.3N 84.7E, about 490 km east southeast of Chennai and 560 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

It would intensify further and move slightly north northeastwards slowly.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. It has a ragged eye. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between 10.0N to 18.0N and 80.5E to 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -80C.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure estimated at 986 hPa.

IMD Estimated Forecast And Intensity
========================
12 HRS 13.1N 84.8E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 13.7N 84.9E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 14.4N 85.1E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 14.9N 85.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

-----------------
advisory has been slightly changed to understand easier.. but is based on the India Meteorological Department data.
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#46 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 08, 2013 4:29 am

Think it will jog to the W then track WSW and weaken.

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Re:

#47 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Dec 08, 2013 6:19 am

weathernerdguy wrote:what did the 11.8 meant?


Its the coordinates. 11.8 degrees North of the Equator. And 84.5 degrees East of the Prime Meridian.
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Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#48 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 08, 2013 7:37 pm

interesting. IMD and JT in perfect agreement with intensity at 65 knots.
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Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#49 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Dec 09, 2013 5:35 pm

Doesn't this look stronger than 60 knots? There is a small eye like feature near the center, and it is surrounded by very cold cloudtops.

Image

Image
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Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#50 Postby stormkite » Mon Dec 09, 2013 7:24 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Doesn't this look stronger than 60 knots? There is a small eye like feature near the center, and it is surrounded by very cold cloudtops.





No to stronger and yes there was a visible eye at 14.98 -85.37.
Image



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Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#51 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:30 pm

Going downhill....
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Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#52 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 1:39 am

Madi has intensified since this morning with an eye clearly apparent

TPIO10 PGTW 100625
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI)
B. 10/0530Z
C. 15.5N
D. 85.3E
E. THREE/MET7
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 4.5 AND PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO PT DUE TO
CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.5 PER 12HRS).
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BERMEA

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#53 Postby stormkite » Tue Dec 10, 2013 4:30 am

TXIO29 KNES 100858
TCSNIO

A. 06B (MADI)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 15.9N

D. 85.4E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T4.5/5.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON LG EMBEDDED CENTER. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT. POSITION BASED ON REMNANTS OF EYE TYPE FEATURE IN VISIBLE
DATA BUT 0716Z AMSU IMPLIES LOW LEVEL CENTER STARTING TO REFORM FURTHER
WEST.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/0355Z 15.5N 85.2E AMSU

...SCHWARTZ

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the loop of Madi almost stationary.
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#54 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 7:39 am

Madi has begun to weaken now. Best Track is down to 60 knots.

06B MADI 131210 1200 15.1N 84.9E IO 60 978
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#55 Postby weathernerdguy » Tue Dec 10, 2013 11:12 am

it has no convection except a little band north of the center and ADT is showing 92 knots.. :lol:
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Re:

#56 Postby stormkite » Tue Dec 10, 2013 4:44 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:it has no convection except a little band north of the center and ADT is showing 92 knots.. :lol:



Yeah it looks like a dogs breakfast on the sat-pic.

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#57 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 10, 2013 11:50 pm

Image

MADI exposed
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Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#58 Postby Spin » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:26 am

Madi's making a comeback., which I certainly didn't expect.

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Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#59 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:57 am

No longer a TC. Good news for India.
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#60 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:22 pm

Great news for India. I don't think they need any more devastation after Phailin.
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