WPAC: 33W - Tropical Depression

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jaguarjace
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WPAC: 33W - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Dec 02, 2013 9:40 am

Image
14.2N 138.4E
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 02, 2013 9:52 am

Image
Image
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#3 Postby stormkite » Mon Dec 02, 2013 8:59 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 030000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030000Z-030600ZDEC2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8N 138.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM, BUT DUE TO THE DEFINED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.



Image


Image
UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Image
LOWER LEVEL WINDS

Image
WIND SHEAR

Image
VORTICITY
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#4 Postby stormkite » Tue Dec 03, 2013 1:46 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:02 am

I was expecting this to go poof today after appearing yesterday but it continues to be very impressive, even more organized...

KNES at 1.5...

TXPQ26 KNES 030907
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 03/0830Z

C. 15.6N

D. 138.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREE SHEAR FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH
PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

03/0532Z 15.7N 138.2E SSMI


...SALEMI

JMA has this a Depression...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:03 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
138.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A
030031Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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WPAC: INVEST 94W (JTWC: 33W - Tropical Depression)

#7 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:20 am

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER PEARL HARBOR HAWAII
WARNING GRAPHIC AND TEXT
Image
WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTY-THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.7N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.5N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.3N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 138.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTY-THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
369 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z,
040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:59 am

33rd Tropical Cyclone of the 2013 typhoon season...

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTY-THREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTY-THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
369 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IR IMAGERY AND A 031139Z
METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED YET SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). A 031139Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SUPPORTS BOTH THE CURRENT POSITION AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS. DUE TO THE VWS, THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER AT 25 KNOTS. TD 33W IS LOCATED
JUST POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM
IS BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 33W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD 33W IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12, AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT COMPLETES ETT BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODELS POORLY
INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM; THEREFORE, RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY
LIMITED. NAVGEM AND GFDN INDICATE AN ERRATIC AND UNREALISTIC
WESTWARD TRACK WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE REALISTIC RECURVE TRACK BUT
WITH SLOW TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
WBAR, WHICH DEPICTS A FASTER RECURVE SCENARIO AND MORE LIKELY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. DUE TO LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#9 Postby stormkite » Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:42 pm

No doubts at all this sat -pic shows it's a TD. The pic also reminded me of a headless Karen image in the Atlantic earlier this year.

Image

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Re: WPAC: 33W - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:48 pm

Final Warning issued

Image

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS BECOME VOID OF CONVECTION, AS NOW HIGH (GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS) LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ARE AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM. DESPITE THE RECENT ERRATIC MOTION OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
STRONG VWS, TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
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Re: WPAC: 33W - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:44 am

That was quick :lol:
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