SIO: AMARA - Tropical Cyclone

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stormkite
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#21 Postby stormkite » Mon Dec 16, 2013 12:00 am

Monsoon trough forecast to return in the Timor soon will be interesting.
Has no effect with this invest but it will with the NT one model has a cyclone spin up and track to Darwin on the 24th.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 93S

#22 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Dec 16, 2013 11:27 am

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#23 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Dec 16, 2013 11:31 am

JTWC says "Invalid URL". :roll:

However, in my opinion, it doesn't look as good as before, the convection has waned a little on the south side. But I still think it'll develop.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 93S

#24 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Dec 16, 2013 11:35 am

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SIO: AMARA - Moderate Tropical Storm

#25 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:08 pm

JTWC Track
Image
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#26 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Dec 16, 2013 6:01 pm

A peak of 60 knots is being forecast from JTWC, it just might reach cyclone strength. The Indian Ocean is definitely heating up, with Amara and 94S in the Southern Hemisphere, and 93B in the Northern Hemisphere.
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#27 Postby stormkite » Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:44 pm

Basically just going back to where the invest originated from.


Image
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Re: SIO: AMARA - Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 16, 2013 11:36 pm

Interesting discussion and La Reunion Watch out!

REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 71.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND OUTER BANDING SPIRALING INTO THE CENTER. A 1705Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS INCREASING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC
HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND TIGHTER WRAPPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
BASED ON THIS INCREASED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO WARNING STATUS (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS
MARGINAL. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR. THIS STR IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT
FURTHER WEST AND MOVE OVER AFRICA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIVE
THE SYSTEM GENERALLY TO THE WEST WHILE ANOTHER MODIFYING STR WILL BE
BUILDING TO THE EAST OF SYSTEM WHICH WILL ADD A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT TO THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. GENERAL INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR, REACHING A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
AS GOOD UPPER LEVELS AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CAN SUPPORT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD BUT GENERALLY
AGREES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 161451Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 161500).//
NNNN


TPXS10 PGTW 170310

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA)

B. 17/0230Z

C. 15.7S

D. 71.8E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET YIELDS A 2.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SCHALIN
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#29 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 6:47 am

This is now an 80 knot storm per the JTWC's 6z Best Track. After having intensified quickly yesterday from 35 knots to this now.

03S AMARA 131218 0600 16.0S 70.8E SHEM 80 963
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#30 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 7:01 am

Forecasting a peak of 105 knots. And it has increased 40 knots over the past 24 hours! :eek:

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.0S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.3S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.9S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.6S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.4S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.2S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 70.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT RAPIDLY IMPROVED STRUCTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A 10-NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 180428Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WHICH SUPPORTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS (40 KNOT INCREASE). TC 03S CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY
OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO 48. AFTER TAU 60, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE STRUCTURE
OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SLOW FORWARD
MOTION AND PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF COOLER, DRIER AIR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS DUE, PRIMARILY, TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#31 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 8:56 am

Wow! Now a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. I think we might see a Category 3 on the SSHS by 18z. :eek:

03S AMARA 131218 1200 16.3S 70.5E SHEM 90 956
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Re: SIO: AMARA - Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Dec 18, 2013 8:59 am

Image
Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.
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Re: SIO: AMARA - Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 11:02 am

WOW! talk about rapid intensification!

Will we witness our 1st Major Cyclone of the Southern Hemisphere season?
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Re: SIO: AMARA - Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 11:05 am

Image

Cyclone Amara...

Nice Looking fishy storm... :D
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#35 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 11:15 am

If this does become a major (SSHS), I wonder if it will be the earliest SSHS major in this basin? Again, this is my first year tracking SHEM systems. :wink:
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Re: SIO: AMARA - Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby Spin » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:57 pm

Last year's Anais beat it by two months. :wink:
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#37 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:31 pm

Major Cyclone Amara (SSHS)! :ggreen: :ggreen:
And it continues to rapidly intensify. :eek:

03S AMARA 131218 1800 16.8S 69.9E SHEM 100 948

I can see this peaking somewhere around 125-135 mph.
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#38 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 4:48 pm

WHAT? JTWC is forecasting a peak of 130 knots!!!
:double: :double: :double:


WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.2S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.9S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.3S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.0S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.9S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH A 12-NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE AND SEVERAL WELL
DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER.
TC 03S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION; INCREASING BY 50 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WELL
ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW CHANNELS EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD. AN 181709Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AS WELL AS THE
ESTABLISHED EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
LOOP AND AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 90
TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND ROBUST DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
SOON AFTER, A LOW-LEVEL HIGH, BUILDING SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM,
SHOULD ACT TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF COOLER,
DRIER AIR; GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE STRUCTURE OF TC 03S. NEAR TAU 48,
THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ASSUME THE
DOMINANT STEERING CONTROL OF TC 03S AND BEGIN A SLOW RECURVE
SCENARIO TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
WEAKENING TREND DUE INCREASING VWS AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SMALL VARIATIONS IN TRACK SPEED DUE TO WEAK STEERING MECHANISM AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE SCENARIO. THUS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY
ERRATIC BEHAVIOR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE
CURRENT RI SCENARIO, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(BRUCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Amazing!
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

stormkite
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#39 Postby stormkite » Wed Dec 18, 2013 6:24 pm

2013DEC18 230000 6.6 913.1 +2.3 129.6 6.4 4.9 4.6 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -63.36 -74.60 UNIFRM N/A 47.3 -16.69 -69.37 SPRL MET7 24.2

Image


Image
Time is running out for AMARA dry air closing in.



Image

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Last edited by stormkite on Wed Dec 18, 2013 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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hurricanes1234
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Location: Southern Caribbean

#40 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 8:03 pm

Wow. Just amazing. Unofficially up to a Category 4 on the SSHS!
:double: :double:

03S AMARA 131219 0000 17.0S 69.2E SHEM 115 937
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


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