SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

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supercane4867
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SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:21 pm

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#2 Postby stormkite » Mon Dec 16, 2013 5:16 am

Monsoon trough is forecast to be active next week in the Timor Top End Darwin in particular will need to keep a very close eye on any lows .


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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#3 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Dec 16, 2013 8:20 am

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low

Issued at 8:52 pm WST Monday 16 December 2013.

Image

Remarks:
The low is moving west southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it passes to the
northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday, however GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres
per hour are possible during Wednesday and may persist into Thursday morning.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase later Tuesday as the system moves closer. Depending
on the movement of the low, the rain and thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on
Thursday.
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#4 Postby stormkite » Mon Dec 16, 2013 5:43 pm

24/12/013 model run.

Image


]Image
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#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:16 pm

TCFA issued. Note that SSTs are up to 30 degrees along the forecast track, and wind shear is low to moderate. I wonder if this will be a twin cyclone along with Amara.

WTXS21 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0S 98.2E TO 11.4S 94.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S 97.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3S
97.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 97.1E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH OF
COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, YET CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION. A 162255Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS BANDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WHILE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED DESPITE SOME DISORGANIZATION IN THE
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BEING COUNTERED BY
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180300Z.//
NNNN
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#6 Postby stormkite » Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:39 pm

Same area Alessia originated from.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#7 Postby stormkite » Mon Dec 16, 2013 10:50 pm

jaguarjace wrote:AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low

Issued at 8:52 pm WST Monday 16 December 2013.

http://imageshack.us/a/img36/3661/v35u.png

Remarks:
The low is moving west southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it passes to the
northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday, however GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres
per hour are possible during Wednesday and may persist into Thursday morning.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase later Tuesday as the system moves closer. Depending
on the movement of the low, the rain and thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on

I
Thursday.


I guess you already know but if you don't http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast. ... :::ts:fcst is a good site for our region.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#8 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 16, 2013 11:33 pm

Image

TPXS11 PGTW 170312

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (W OF SUMATRA)

B. 17/0230Z

C. 8.5S

D. 97.0E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/18HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/2255Z 8.4S 97.2E SSMS


SCHALIN
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Cyclone BRUCE

#9 Postby stormkite » Wed Dec 18, 2013 12:29 am

Image
ATM 2013DEC18 063000 3.5 991.7 55.0 3.5 3.6 3.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -67.26 -70.42 UNIFRM N/A -0.0 -11.00 -94.88 SPRL MET7 45.3




Cyclone BRUCE and AMARA
Image



And another Forecast to form in the East
Image

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is expected to develop over waters to the north of the
Territory during the next few days. A low is likely to form within the trough
early next week with an increasing chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the
region during the week.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).
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#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 6:51 am

Forecasting a peak of 90 knots!

WTXS32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 95.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 95.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.8S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.5S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.0S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.6S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.6S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.4S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 95.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED YET ELONGATED CENTER. A 180407Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH DEFINED TIGHTLY-WRAPPED
SHALLOW BANDING AND AN ELONGATED CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS, BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE. TC 04S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER
TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH AND BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
INDICATES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THE
JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT AND FAVORS THE MORE RELIABLE GFS,
NAVGEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#11 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 9:37 am

Updated 12z Best Track sends Bruce unofficially up to 55 knots and down to 982 mbar. Might become a cyclone soon.

04S BRUCE 131218 1200 11.3S 94.5E SHEM 55 982

This is more active than the Atlantic has ever been this year! :eek:
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 10:56 am

Image

Tropical Cyclone Bruce...
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#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:36 pm

18z Best Track up to 60 knots and just shy of cyclone strength.

04S BRUCE 131218 1800 11.6S 94.1E SHEM 60 978
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Re:

#14 Postby stormkite » Wed Dec 18, 2013 4:53 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:18z Best Track up to 60 knots and just shy of cyclone strength.

04S BRUCE 131218 1800 11.6S 94.1E SHEM 60 978

You need read the cyclone scale for this region.


Category 1
Strongest gust less than 125 km/h
Typical effects (indicative only) - Negligible house damage. Damage to some crops, trees and caravans. Craft may drag moorings.


Category 2
Strongest gust 125 - 170 km/h
Typical effects (indicative only) - Minor house damage. Significant damage to signs, trees and caravans. Heavy damage to some crops. Risk of power failure. Small craft may break moorings.

Category 3
Strongest gust 170 - 225 km/h
Typical effects (indicative only) - Some roof and structural damage. Some caravans destroyed. Power failure likely.

Category 4
Strongest gust 225 - 280 km/h
Typical effects (indicative only) - Significant roofing loss and structural damage. Many caravans destroyed and blown away. Dangerous airborne debris. Widespread power failure.

Category 5
Strongest gust More than 280 km/h
Typical effects (indicative only) - Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.




IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1849 UTC 18/12/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bruce
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 93.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 19/0000: 12.2S 92.7E: 030 [060]: 065 [120]: 977
+12: 19/0600: 12.4S 91.9E: 045 [080]: 070 [130]: 973
+18: 19/1200: 12.7S 91.2E: 055 [105]: 075 [140]: 968
+24: 19/1800: 13.0S 90.3E: 070 [130]: 080 [150]: 964
+36: 20/0600: 13.6S 88.3E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 960
+48: 20/1800: 13.9S 86.2E: 110 [200]: 090 [165]: 955
+60: 21/0600: 14.7S 83.9E: 130 [235]: 095 [175]: 951
+72: 21/1800: 15.8S 81.4E: 145 [270]: 095 [175]: 951
+96: 22/1800: 19.2S 78.0E: 190 [355]: 090 [165]: 952
+120: 23/1800: 23.4S 77.8E: 280 [515]: 070 [130]: 968

REMARKS:
The system has been located by microwave, IR and VIS imagery during the night,
with adjustments made for parallax with goestationary imagery.

The system has continued its steady west southwest motion under the influence of
a mid level ridge to the south. There is strong agreement between the models for
this motion to be maintained for the next few days.

The system continues to intensify with current intensity set to 60 knots based
on FT of 4.0 using Curved Band/Eye pattern.

Shear is expected to remain low to moderate for the next few days and ocean
temperatures remain warm. Intensity is forecast to proceed at a standard rate in
the short term.
Last edited by stormkite on Wed Dec 18, 2013 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 5:02 pm

JTWC still forecasting a peak of 90 knots as of 21z, but that's very impressive given the fact that Amara is fairly close by and there will likely be two cyclones active simultaneously that are stronger than Category 1. Of course, I am speaking about SSHS.

WTXS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 11.6S 94.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 94.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.2S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.6S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.2S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.7S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.7S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.4S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.0S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 93.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED YET ELONGATED CENTER. A
181529Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WITH DEFINED TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING AND AN ELONGATED
CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. TC
04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH AND BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 04S TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120 AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT AND FAVORS THE MORE
RELIABLE GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 5:05 pm

Thanks, stormkite, but I was speaking about the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, I just forgot to put that in this post. I always use SSHS since that is the one I prefer and the one I understand best. Thanks anyway. :)
stormkite wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:18z Best Track up to 60 knots and just shy of cyclone strength.

04S BRUCE 131218 1800 11.6S 94.1E SHEM 60 978

You need read the cyclone scale for this region.



IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1849 UTC 18/12/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bruce
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 93.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 19/0000: 12.2S 92.7E: 030 [060]: 065 [120]: 977
+12: 19/0600: 12.4S 91.9E: 045 [080]: 070 [130]: 973
+18: 19/1200: 12.7S 91.2E: 055 [105]: 075 [140]: 968
+24: 19/1800: 13.0S 90.3E: 070 [130]: 080 [150]: 964
+36: 20/0600: 13.6S 88.3E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 960
+48: 20/1800: 13.9S 86.2E: 110 [200]: 090 [165]: 955
+60: 21/0600: 14.7S 83.9E: 130 [235]: 095 [175]: 951
+72: 21/1800: 15.8S 81.4E: 145 [270]: 095 [175]: 951
+96: 22/1800: 19.2S 78.0E: 190 [355]: 090 [165]: 952
+120: 23/1800: 23.4S 77.8E: 280 [515]: 070 [130]: 968

REMARKS:
The system has been located by microwave, IR and VIS imagery during the night,
with adjustments made for parallax with goestationary imagery.

The system has continued its steady west southwest motion under the influence of
a mid level ridge to the south. There is strong agreement between the models for
this motion to be maintained for the next few days.

The system continues to intensify with current intensity set to 60 knots based
on FT of 4.0 using Curved Band/Eye pattern.

Shear is expected to remain low to moderate for the next few days and ocean
temperatures remain warm. Intensity is forecast to proceed at a standard rate in
the short term.
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#17 Postby stormkite » Wed Dec 18, 2013 6:54 pm

Looks like BRUCE could be a cracka on the ascat.


Image

Image
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#18 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 8:06 pm

Now a minimal Category 1 on the SSHS, unofficially. This is one impressive pair of storms here in the South Indian Ocean!

04S BRUCE 131219 0000 11.9S 92.9E SHEM 65 974
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#19 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 10:15 pm

Updated 0z Best Track unofficially brings Bruce up to 70 knots and down to 970 mbar.

04S BRUCE 131219 0000 11.9S 92.9E SHEM 70 970
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hurricanes1234
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#20 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Dec 19, 2013 8:06 am

Wow, 12z Best Track has Bruce up from 75 knots at 6z to 90 knots now!

04S BRUCE 131219 1200 12.6S 91.2E SHEM 90 956
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