SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

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hurricanes1234
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#21 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Dec 19, 2013 8:51 pm

Up to 110 knots! Just shy of a SSHS Category 4. Impressive! One strong SSHS Category 3 and a minimal SSHS Category 4.

04S BRUCE 131220 0000 13.3S 89.7E SHEM 110 941
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Meow

#22 Postby Meow » Fri Dec 20, 2013 3:24 am

The strongest since Funso in the Southern Hemisphere.

WTIO30 FMEE 200715
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20132014
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BRUCE)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 88.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 500 SW: 520 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 190 SW: 180 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/20 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/12/21 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/12/21 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/12/22 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/12/22 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/24 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2013/12/25 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.5-
(CORRECTIVE AT 5.5+ FOR CI OF 00Z). THE SYSTEM SHOWS ALL THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN INTENSE ONE WIT
H A WELL DEFINED ROUND EYE WITHIN A VERY COLD CLOUD TOP CDO.
UP TO SATURDAY, BRUCE MAY KEEP ON MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES EXISTING SOUTH-EAST.
FROM SUNDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A HIGH TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTE
D TO MOVE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-EASTW
ARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD THANKS TO A POWERFULL DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL ... SO SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH IS STILL POSSIBLE. TOMORROW THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE TO A SINGLE ONE AND
...POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE OF EASTERLY SHEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJU
STED CONSEQUENTLY.
THE STRENGTHENING WINDSHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ONLY BE SENSIBLE ON THE SYSTEM ON
THUESDAY BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER VERY LOW OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AS IT WILL APPROACH 20S.
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 20, 2013 3:58 am

Also JTWC up to 125kt

04S BRUCE 131220 0600 13.6S 88.4E SHEM 125 929

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#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Dec 20, 2013 7:06 am

Look at this!!! Extremely clear eye with a ring of convection wrapping ALL the way around!!! This might be nearing SSHS Category 5 status.

Image
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Dec 20, 2013 8:33 am

How is this still 125 knots? :lol:

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#26 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 20, 2013 8:41 am

This storm is so impressive! I never knew that Southern Hemisphere cyclones can be this strong!
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Re:

#27 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Dec 20, 2013 9:01 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:This storm is so impressive! I never knew that Southern Hemisphere cyclones can be this strong!


Neither me, I was shocked by the fact that TWO major cyclones (SSHS) were active simultaneously! When Bruce wasn't even 75 mph yet, its pressure was equal to or less than the pressure of the strongest Atlantic storm this year! Amara and Bruce will bump up ACE significantly.
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Dec 20, 2013 10:12 am

Full Disk view from China's FY-2D satellite.
Image
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 20, 2013 2:27 pm

TXXS24 KNES 201746
TCSSIO
A. 04S (BRUCE)
B. 20/1730Z
C. 14.1S
D. 86.4E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR DT=7.0.
MET=6.0 WITH PT=6.5. 6HR AVG FOR SYSYTEM IS 6.9. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/1157Z 13.7S 87.2E SSMIS
...SALEMI


SSD now at T7.0 but the CDO pattern it's still somewhat asymmetrical for a Cat.5 so my best guess on intensity is 130kt

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#30 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Dec 20, 2013 2:32 pm

Up to 130 knots!!! :jump: :ggreen:

Two Category 4s active now, as Amara is back up to 115 knots! How rare is that? :eek:

04S BRUCE 131220 1800 14.1S 86.3E SHEM 130 926
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#31 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Dec 20, 2013 8:57 pm

Almost a Category 5 (SSHS)!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

04S BRUCE 131221 0000 14.5S 85.0E SHEM 135 922
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#32 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 20, 2013 9:47 pm

JTWC predicts a cat 5!
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#33 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 20, 2013 9:48 pm

When was the last cat 5 in the Australian/South Indian Ocean basin?
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 20, 2013 11:46 pm

Bruce is the first storm to reach VITC strength in this basin since Edzani of 2009

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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby Macrocane » Sat Dec 21, 2013 7:42 am

ZCZC 112
WTIO30 FMEE 210701
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/3/20132014
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BRUCE)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 83.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/7.0/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 920 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 430 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 180 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/21 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/12/22 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/12/22 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/12/23 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/12/24 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/25 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2013/12/26 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 90.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0- CI=7.0-
BRUCE SHOWS A LESS WELL LOOK FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS HAS WARMED AND THE EYE IS
LESS CLEAR.
UP TO SUNDAY MORNING, BRUCE MAY KEEP ON MOVING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES EXISTING SOUTH-EAST.
FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A HIGH TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH SH
OULD MOVE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-EAS
TWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD THANKS TO FAVOURABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND A POWERFULL DUAL O
UTFLOW CHANNEL. TODAY THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE TO A SINGLE ONE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
OF EASTERLY WIND-SHEAR IS POSSIBLE.
FROM SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY, SOUTH OF 20S, BRUCE'S INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE CLEARLY WITH THE LO
WERING OF THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY THEN NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFORE MENTIONED.
FROM THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NNNN
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby Macrocane » Sat Dec 21, 2013 7:44 am

WTXS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.0S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.0S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.3S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.2S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 28.2S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 30.3S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS
INCREASED IN THE AREAL EXTENT WHILE MAINTAINING A 20 NM EYE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE READILY APPARENT IN ALL IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
135 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 7.0 FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER STR AND IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 04S
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. THE COLD-CORE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC BRUCE WILL RIDE IN THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE UNTIL ABOUT DAY SIX WHEN ANOTHER, DEEPER, MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBS IT. WITH UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 140 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND THEN
SLOWLY BEGINS TO DROP THEREAFTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 36 AT LATITUDE 20S WHILE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT DROPS OFF BY TAU 24. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
STRONG LEVELS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 48 ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THEREFORE, FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU
48 AND TC BRUCE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. HOWEVER, LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT STR BREAKDOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z
IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMARA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby Macrocane » Sat Dec 21, 2013 7:46 am

It seems like the lack of activity in the Atlantic and EPAC has not occurred in the other basins as WPAC ended pretty active, NIND has had above average activity including a cat 5 and now the SIND has seen two cat 4's. Let's see how the SPAC behaves, after all the peak months in the southern hemisphere are Jan-Feb-Mar
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#38 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Dec 21, 2013 12:54 pm

Looks like Bruce may make it to a Category 5 (SSHS) as estimates are rising and the eye is clearing out even more.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 DEC 2013 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 16:12:41 S Lon : 81:09:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 932.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km

Center Temp : +11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 145km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees

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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

Sanibel
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby Sanibel » Sat Dec 21, 2013 1:09 pm

Flip Siders. Favorability in the east.
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supercane4867
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Re: SIO: BRUCE - Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 21, 2013 2:20 pm

140kt

04S BRUCE 131221 1800 16.3S 81.0E SHEM 140 918
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