SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

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SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#1 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 26, 2013 4:39 am

Image

Image

:rarrow: :rarrow: :rarrow: 98S FLOATER :larrow: :larrow: :larrow:

Looks like this system won the battle against 95S and models are aggressively developing this down the road...

98S INVEST 131226 0600 12.4S 123.1E SHEM 15 1010

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8S 123.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252226Z
TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE
TO DISRUPTION BY TIMOR ISLAND. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AND SLP NEAR 1006
MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD, AWAY
FROM TIMOR ISLAND, IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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#2 Postby stormkite » Thu Dec 26, 2013 6:46 am

Yeah it's forecast spinup.
2013DEC26 113200 3.4 985.4 +0.0 53.0 3.2 2.9 2.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF -50.31 -53.38 CRVBND N/A N/A -13.17 -122.12 FCST MTSAT2 30.6
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#3 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:54 am

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low

Issued at 8:51 pm WST Thursday 26 December 2013.

Image

Remarks:
A tropical low lies well to the north of Broome. The system is expected to move roughly parallel to the coast
over the next 48 to 72 hours, and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between Troughton Island and
Bidyadanga during Saturday.
Last edited by jaguarjace on Thu Dec 26, 2013 8:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Thu Dec 26, 2013 8:12 am

AXAU01 APRF 261253
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1253 UTC 26/12/2013
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.2S
Longitude: 122.0E
Location Accuracy: within 90 nm [165 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 26/1800: 13.5S 121.7E: 090 [165]: 025 [045]: 1001
+12: 27/0000: 13.9S 121.4E: 095 [175]: 025 [045]: 1000
+18: 27/0600: 14.2S 121.0E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 999
+24: 27/1200: 14.4S 120.7E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 28/0000: 15.0S 120.1E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 993
+48: 28/1200: 15.6S 119.5E: 130 [240]: 045 [085]: 987
+60: 29/0000: 16.2S 118.8E: 130 [240]: 050 [095]: 983
+72: 29/1200: 17.1S 117.8E: 140 [260]: 060 [110]: 975
+96: 30/1200: 19.1S 115.6E: 170 [315]: 080 [150]: 954
+120: 31/1200: 22.7S 115.5E: 210 [390]: 075 [140]: 960
REMARKS:
The system previously located in the Joseph Bonaparte has developed a new
circulation well to the north of Broome. From a policy perspective the same
system number has been maintained, however the low level centre appears to be
developing under new, much broader, mid level circulation.

A weak curved band pattern gives a DT of 1.5, which is supported by the PT and
MET = 1.5. CIMMS shear is analysed as moderate shear over the system, with lower
shear to the system's south. There is also a good outflow channel in the upper
winds to the south. SST above 30 degrees is favourable for development.

The system is likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity on Saturday. Model
guidance suggests a broad, monsoonal like, structure in the development phase,
with a contraction of the RMW as the system approaches maturity.

All guidance suggest a large diameter system, greater than the climatological
norm. This may be significant when storm surge and wind impacts are considered
later in the system lifecycle.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#5 Postby stormkite » Fri Dec 27, 2013 6:22 pm

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 5:32 am WST on Saturday 28 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Broome.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the coastal areas from Broome to Mardie.

At 5:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
425 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
700 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 5 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

A tropical low, located to the north northwest of Broome, is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone Saturday evening as it moves southwest, roughly
parallel to the coast.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the west Kimberley
coast between Cape Leveque and Broome late Saturday. Heavy rainfall is expected
on Saturday and Sunday in coastal areas of the west Kimberley.

As the system begins to approach the Pilbara coast later on Sunday, gales are
expected to develop further west to Port Hedland and then to Mardie including
Karratha overnight or Monday morning. The system should steadily intensify
before reaching the coast.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Broome
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque
including Derby are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed.

Communities between Broome and Mardie should listen for the next advice.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Details of the Tropical Low at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.4 degrees South 120.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Saturday 28 December.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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Re: SIO: 04U - Tropical Low (98S)

#6 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Dec 27, 2013 11:58 pm

Getting stronger.
Last edited by jaguarjace on Sat Dec 28, 2013 5:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby stormkite » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:37 am

WTXS21 PGTW 270730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 122.3E TO 17.8S 118.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
270700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S
120.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
123.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 120.9E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING
OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270542Z NOAA-19
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 270044Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE CENTER. A RECENT OBSERVATION REPORT FROM BROWSE ISLAND
INDICATES A PRESSURE FALL OF 4 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 1001 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A WARM
SEA SURFACE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ALSO
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280730Z.//
NNNN
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#8 Postby senorpepr » Sat Dec 28, 2013 1:40 am

772
TXXS26 KNES 280610
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98S)

B. 28/0532Z

C. 15.4S

D. 120.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...LARGE INNER CORE THAT IS GENERALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION
BUT IS SURROUNDED BY TWO BANDS THAT MEASURE .35 TO .4 ON LOG10 YIELDING
DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.0. PT IS 2.5. GIVEN MULTIPLE BANDS AND RAPID SPEED
OF LOW LEVEL CU FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE CLEAR AREAS (PARTICULARLY SW OF
LLC) FT IS 2.5 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/2342Z 14.6S 121.6E SSMIS
28/0108Z 14.8S 121.6E AMSU


...GALLINA
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#9 Postby stormkite » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:07 am

Image
2013DEC28 063200 2.9 994.9 +2.7 43.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF -24.02 -54.45 CRVBND N/A N/A -15.25 -120.73 FCST MTSAT2 33.1
Devoid of all convention? the centre appears to have lots of low level cloud a indication precursor to eyewall formation.

Image


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Image
Last edited by stormkite on Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#10 Postby senorpepr » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:19 am

JTWC has now upgraded this into at tropical cyclone:

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.5S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.4S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.4S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.2S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.8S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT FORMATIVE BANDS, ALTHOUGH STILL FRAGMENTED,
HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 280600Z DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM APRF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCED
BY THE SAME STH, IS EASILY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND SUSTAINING THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 48. REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO WITH GFDN AS THE
WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE BUT SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z,
290300Z AND 290900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 270721Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 270730). //


Image
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#11 Postby stormkite » Sat Dec 28, 2013 4:09 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 DEC 2013 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 15:41:53 S Lon : 120:36:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 999.2mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 3.1

Center Temp : -46.6C Cloud Region Temp : -57.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.80 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 15:41:23 S Lon: 121:00:00 E
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Re: SIO: 04U - Tropical Low (05S)

#12 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Dec 28, 2013 5:34 am

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Christine

Issued at 6:13 pm WST Saturday 28 December 2013.

Image

Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Christine is moving steadily to the southwest roughly parallel to the coast.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected on the west Kimberley coast between Cape Leveque
and Broome tonight and tomorrow morning. Heavy rainfall is expected overnight and Sunday in coastal areas of
the west Kimberley.

As the tropical cyclone begins to approach the Pilbara coast later on Sunday gales are expected to extend
further west to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland.

Overnight on Sunday and into Monday gales and heavy rainfall may further extend to Exmouth, including
Onslow and Karratha, and adjacent inland parts. If Christine continues to develop as expected a severe tropical
cyclone impact on the Pilbara is likely on Monday and Tuesday morning.
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SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#13 Postby stormkite » Sat Dec 28, 2013 7:48 pm

Image

Image
looks to be moving slightly west and consolidating :D


Image
Dragging the monsoon trough





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#14 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 9:26 pm

What?! Up to 55 knots! :eek:

05S CHRISTINE 131229 0000 16.6S 120.2E SHEM 55 982
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Re:

#15 Postby stormkite » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:34 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:What?! Up to 55 knots! :eek:

05S CHRISTINE 131229 0000 16.6S 120.2E SHEM 55 982



Image

Yeah looking good considering it was forecasted on this thread as devoid of any intense convention in the LLCC lol.

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Re: SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:54 pm

Indeed up to 55 knots and landfall intensity more stronger...

Image

REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 120.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282330Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPROVING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH)
IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AIDING THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 05S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH
TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH AROUND TAU 36. AFTER
LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH REMAINS THE
WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY WIDE
TURN THAT IS BEING FORECAST BY GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z
AND 300300Z.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#17 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 29, 2013 2:16 am

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Re: SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#18 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 29, 2013 5:00 am

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IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 2:56 pm WST on Sunday 29 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie,
including Broome, Port Hedland and Karratha, and extending inland to Marble Bar.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Exmouth, including
Onslow, and extending inland to Paraburdoo and Newman and into the northeast
Gascoyne.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Christine, Category 2 was estimated to be
280 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
365 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour towards the Pilbara coast.

Tropical Cyclone Christine lies off the west Kimberley coast and is expected to
intensify further as it moves towards the Pilbara coast.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible on the west Kimberley
coast south of Cape Leveque today. Heavy rainfall is expected today in coastal
areas of the west Kimberley and adjacent inland parts.

As the tropical cyclone begins to approach the Pilbara coast, gales are
expected to extend further west along the Pilbara coast to Whim Creek late
today or early on Monday morning.

During Monday gales and heavy rainfall are expected to extend to Mardie and
possibly as far west as Exmouth, and then to the inland Pilbara and northeast
Gascoyne late Monday and on Tuesday. If Christine continues to develop as
expected a severe tropical cyclone impact on the Pilbara coast is likely late
on Monday or early on Tuesday, with VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess
of 165 kilometres per hour near the cyclone centre.

People on the coast between Pardoo and Mardie are warned of the potential for a
VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Tides may
rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY
DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal areas between the Dampier Peninsula and
Onslow, including Broome, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne,
Point Samson, Wickham, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow, Pannawonica, and extending
inland to Marble Bar, Tom Price and Paraburdoo, need to prepare for cyclonic
weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable
radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Details of the Tropical Cyclone Christine at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 119.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour and intensifying
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Sunday 29 December.


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SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#19 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 29, 2013 5:55 am

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#20 Postby senorpepr » Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:30 am

856
TPXS10 PGTW 291207

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE)

B. 29/1132Z

C. 17.6S

D. 119.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT
AGREES; MET WAS 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG


384
TXXS26 KNES 291206
TCSSIO

A. 05S (CHRISTINE)

B. 29/1132Z

C. 17.8S

D. 119.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...MI SUITE SHOWS LARGE RAGGED EYE BUT RECENT STRONG
CONVERGENCE ON THE SW BAND HAS LEAD TO THE EYE FEATURE BEING OBSCURED
THOUGH HINTS OF IT COMING BACK WITH THE MOST RECENT IMAGE. BANDING WOULD
YIELD DT OF 3.5 BASED ON 8/10TH WRAP. MET IS 3.5. PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/0700Z 17.3S 119.7E SSMI
29/0856Z 17.4S 119.7E SSMIS
29/0958Z 17.7S 119.6E SSMIS


...GALLINA
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