SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

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#21 Postby senorpepr » Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:32 am

Here's my video update on Christine from the 06Z BoM advisory. Since this video was recorded, there have been a lot of reports of blowing dust in Western Australia. I've posted a couple pictures on my Twitter account: @senorpepr.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnI459xplnA[/youtube]
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Re: SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#22 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:49 am

I really like BOM's forecast and LONG detailed discussions :D
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Re: SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#23 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:50 am

05S CHRISTINE 131229 1200 17.7S 119.3E SHEM 60 978

Nearing cyclone strength...
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#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 2:23 pm

Up to Category 1 (SSHS).

05S CHRISTINE 131229 1800 18.4S 119.2E SHEM 65 974

Image

Steadily consolidating. :(
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#25 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 3:46 pm

65 kt seems reasonable, but that 974 pressure seems way too deep. More likely around 987.
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SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#26 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:21 pm

Image
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#27 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:03 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:65 kt seems reasonable, but that 974 pressure seems way too deep. More likely around 987.


I've noticed that the JTWC uses set pressure estimates sometimes. Examples: 70 knots/970 hPa, 90 knots/956 hPa, 115 knots/937 hPa. But I agree, I'd put it around 985-990 hPa. However, this is just my amateur opinion.
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#28 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:11 pm

BOM had it at 968 early this morning Aus time:

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1837 UTC 29/12/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Christine
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 18.4S
Longitude: 119.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [205 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 968 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 105 nm [195 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 105 nm [195 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 30/0000: 19.0S 118.7E: 030 [055]: 075 [140]: 960
+12: 30/0600: 19.6S 118.4E: 035 [065]: 085 [155]: 953
+18: 30/1200: 20.2S 118.0E: 050 [095]: 085 [155]: 951
+24: 30/1800: 21.1S 117.7E: 060 [110]: 080 [150]: 957
+36: 31/0600: 23.2S 118.2E: 065 [120]: 055 [100]: 977
+48: 31/1800: 25.4S 120.3E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 991
+60: 01/0600: 27.5S 123.4E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 994
+72: 01/1800: 29.2S 127.9E: 140 [260]: 030 [055]: 994
+96: 02/1800: : : :
+120: 03/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Radar at Port Hedland provides a good location for system centre and
observations from Rowley Shoals indicate gales extend a long way to the
southeast.

There appear to be no external constraints to development, though previous
images show circulation assymetries generated convective blowups that may have
slowed development previously. Assuming that these blowups become less
significant through time the system is forecast to intensify at a near standard
rate which would result in a category 3 intensity before crossing the coast.

Model guidance is very tightly clustered in both time and space, and a crossing
point is expected between Port Hedland and Karratha. Guidance also supports a
larger than average circulation size, and storm force winds have extended some
considerable distance to the south at Bedout Island.

Given the size and intensity of the system storm tide impacts are likely to be
significant. Particular note is made of the larger than normal radius to maximum
winds, suggesting very destructive wind impacts may extend some 50 to 100km from
the cyclone track at time of crossing. Emphasis in warning policy has been to
reinforce that impacts may extend some distance from the actual track itself.

Model guidance also suggests the system will remain relatively intact as it
transitions across the state, following capture by a mid level trough. Wind and
rain impacts are therefore forecast to extend well inland, with severe winds
possible close to the track as it moves swiftly southeastwards across central WA
during Tuesday and Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#29 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 9:57 pm

Looks to be around 75-85 knots or more, in my amateur opinion.

Image
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Re: SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#30 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:55 pm

05S CHRISTINE 131230 0000 18.8S 118.6E SHEM 70 970

up to 70 knots...

REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND A BROAD 35 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI ANIMATION AND A COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP FROM PORT HEDLAND SHOWING A COMPLETE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A 30/00Z
WIND OBSERVATION OF 57 KTS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST
WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT ARE
SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STH TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND BEFORE
RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST
OF LEARMONTH JUST AFTER TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF TC
CHRISTINE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE
BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THUS
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID
SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BEJISA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#31 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 30, 2013 12:24 am

Yeah I would put it at 85 kt at synoptic time personally.
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Re: SIO: CHRISTINE - Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#32 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Dec 30, 2013 1:01 am

Image
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#33 Postby senorpepr » Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:17 am

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Port Hedland and Karratha are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34
Issued at 5:53 pm WST on Monday 30 December 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Onslow, including
Port Hedland, Karratha and Onslow, and extending inland to Paraburdoo, Tom
Price, Newman, Jigalong and Three Rivers.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for areas extending further inland to the eastern
Gascoyne and northern Goldfields including Wiluna and Carnegie.

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Wallal has been
cancelled.

At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Christine, Category 3, was estimated to
be
75 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland and
155 kilometres northeast of Karratha and
moving south southwest at 16 kilometres per hour towards the Pilbara coast.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE inner core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Christine has begun
to impact the coast between Port Hedland and Whim Creek. Port Hedland is
currently experiencing destructive wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour as the
system makes its closest approach to that area. Christine is expected to
continue on a south southwest track and the centre is likely to cross the coast
close to Whim Creek by about midnight.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 200 kilometres per hour are
likely near the centre as the cyclone crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 130 kilometres per hour are expected
in the Karratha and Dampier region later tonight, extending well inland
overnight and during Tuesday. People in Tom Price can expect destructive wind
gusts to commence around 8am Tuesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are occurring between Wallal and
Roebourne. Gales should extend west to Karratha and Dampier by this evening and
then to the inland Pilbara overnight.

People on the coast between Pardoo and Wickham including Port Hedland are
warned of the potential for a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE tonight. Tides may rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY
DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Widespread heavy rainfall is expected near the cyclone track and Flood Warnings
have been issued for the Pilbara.

Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour should extend into the eastern
Gascoyne and the northern Goldfields including Wiluna later on Tuesday until
the cyclone weakens overnight.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near coastal areas between Pardoo and Mardie, including
Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Point Samson, Wickham,
Karratha and Dampier. You need to immediately head to shelter and stay indoors
away from doors and windows.

YELLOW alert: People in inland areas including Marble Bar, Tom Price,
Paraburdoo and Pannawonica. You need to take action and get ready to shelter
from the Cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal areas between Wallal and Pardoo and
between Mardie and Onslow and the inland area from Marble Bar to Newman and
between the Collier Ranges and Three Rivers incluiding Kumarina and east to
Granite Peak, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People between Bidyadanga and Wallal are advised that
the threat of strong winds has passed.

A RED alert will be issued for Tom Price and Paraburdoo at 7pm tonight.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au

Details of the Severe Tropical Cyclone Christine at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.9 degrees South 118.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 215 kilometres per hour and intensifying
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 962 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm WST Monday 30 December.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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#34 Postby senorpepr » Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:21 am

A quick video update prior to landfall:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMhYccXXhd4[/youtube]
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#35 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Dec 30, 2013 8:16 am

Up to 85 knots, but that could be brief as it is already making landfall.

05S CHRISTINE 131230 1200 20.4S 117.8E SHEM 85 959
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#36 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 30, 2013 9:50 am

A barograph reported a pressure of 956 with hurricane force winds. That suggests Christine RI'd up to landfall with a pressure around 947 or so. Also that likely suggests that it was a Cat 3 on the SSHWS.
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Re: SIO: CHRISTINE - Severe Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#37 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 30, 2013 11:06 am

Hopefully no major damage and casualties...
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Re: SIO: CHRISTINE - Severe Tropical Cyclone (04U/05S)

#38 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 30, 2013 8:52 pm

Cape Lembart recorded gusts 110 knots

Image
http://www.pilbarairon.com/DprCLWeather/Weather.aspx
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#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:25 am

Based on that data, I would have set the landfall intensity at 110 kt (1-min) - strong Cat 3 - with a pressure of 946mb. Most likely Christine was absolutely bombing out in the last 12 hours.

That is based on the pressure data (954 in the eyewall = 946 in the eye) and 10-min sustained winds of 84 kt likely not the strongest.
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#40 Postby senorpepr » Tue Dec 31, 2013 2:27 am

Very impressive intensification prior to landfall along the Pilbara Coast. It seems like your assessment, CrazyC83, may be on-point.

Here's the latest video update as Christine traverses Western Australia:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYXDl5uhc9k[/youtube]
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