WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS through 78 hours

[Kingarabian]

12Z MU so far very similar to 6Z

Bit slower and to the east so far. Doesn't look good for Oahu.

[Kingarabian]

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A broad area of nearly stationary low pressure was located about 900 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii or about 1050 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. Environmental conditions will support development in this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS vs. 6z GFS. Stronger and further east and keep in mind this is small so models underestimate it.

[Kingarabian]

12Z GFS has around 965mb Oahu landfall.

[Alyono]

looks like Oahu and Kauai

[Yellow Evan]

0z FIM8 and UKMET runs. FIM8 like the GFS but UKMET further east.





6z NOGPAS like the UKMET/ECMWF



0z CMC faster and near the Big Island.

[Yellow Evan]

12Z GFS has around 965mb Oahu landfall.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

I was expecting a shift further west in agreement with the Euro, but oh well.

We'll see how the Euro thinks in 2 more hours

[Yellow Evan]

Only really difference here is that the 12z GFS has stronger troughing.

[Yellow Evan]

Center looks SE of where I thought it was. Likely a 25-30 knt TD.

[srainhoutx]

Certainly looks like a TC to me...

[Yellow Evan]

6z HWRF brings this between Oahu and Kaui as a potent hurricane

[srainhoutx]

The low level circulation appears to be tucking beneath the deeper convection.

[Alyono]

three-C now

[Yellow Evan]

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 11 am HST on newly formed tropical depression Three-C, located about 700 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii or about 900 miles southeast of Honolulu.

[Alyono]

EC has shifted well west. It's like its ignoring the trough

[Yellow Evan]

Uh oh

[Alyono]

Now EC has stalled it, once it starts to intensify it significantly. It sends it far west because it keeps it too weak, too long