ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

When is the next ASCAT pass? I think that's what the NHC waits for to upgrade to TD5

Ouragans what are your best guess related to 98L? Remember given the latest weather forecasts our Pro Mets of Meteo-France expect a perturbation that you could concern Guadeloupe Friday or Saturday. Any ideas about 98L? Thanks

[Gustywind]

With 98L showing signs of developpement and the other twave more east the Atlantic tropical wave conveyor belt is in full working order.


http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... antic-2015


Several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is an area of low pressure that is swirling westward. The National Hurricane Center says that there is a high chance that this system, dubbed Invest 98-L, will develop into a tropical depression early this week. By midweek, this system may move to a position near or north of the Leeward Islands. Just like we saw with Danny, Invest 98-L will have to battle dry air and wind shear nearby as it tries to organize.

Behind that area of low pressure is a tropical wave that has moved off the west coast of Africa. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance of developing over the next five days. By late week, this system should be located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

It's far too early to know at this time what impacts these systems may bring to the eastern Caribbean or anywhere else. Check back with The Weather Channel and weather.com for updates during the week ahead.

[gatorcane]

98L is a much larger system than Danny ever was, so probably why the models are not showing the same outcome that Danny is facing. This wide view puts things in perspective.

[Gustywind]

A New System Emerges Behind Danny
weather.com

Posted: Aug 24 2015 08:49 AM EDT

Updated: Aug 24 2015 08:49 AM EDT

Meteorologist Ari Sarsalari has the latest on another system following Danny.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... hind-danny

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

Satellite images today show Invest 98-L becoming better organized. It is likely to become a tropical depression by Monday. For much of this week, this system will follow a similar track as Danny. If this system gets a name it will be Erika.

[tropicwatch]

ASCAT

[drezee]

Mid level is quite a bit south of the point of the most LL turning(not LLC yet). They would have to co-locate for any hope of ramping up. If this does not happen soon, then the south track will be more accurate.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com


New Tropical System to Brew in the Atlantic This Week

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

August 24, 2015; 8:33 AM ET

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... r/51998686

As Danny tracks across the Caribbean, a new disturbance over the Atlantic, currently identified as 98L, will likely become the next tropical depression early this week.

According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "We expect the disturbance to become Tropical Storm Erika later Monday or Tuesday."


This system will be steered westward by a large dome of high pressure across the Atlantic during much of this week.

"This developing system will likely follow the track of Danny and approach the Leeward Islands later this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde said.

This system is currently located about halfway between Africa and the Windward Islands of the Caribbean in an area of warm water and moist air.

The environment ahead of this system is enriched with moisture recently left from Danny.

[Gustywind]

Loosing slight latitude at each position while moving west faster...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1145 UTC 13.4N 42.0W T1.5/1.5 98L
24/0545 UTC 13.5N 40.6W T1.5/1.5 98L
23/2345 UTC 13.6N 39.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[ouragans]

When is the next ASCAT pass? I think that's what the NHC waits for to upgrade to TD5

Ouragans what are your best guess related to 98L? Remember given the latest weather forecasts our Pro Mets of Meteo-France expect a perturbation that you could concern Guadeloupe Friday or Saturday. Any ideas about 98L? Thanks

Hi my friend.
My guess on this is a weak cat.1 not far from us, or a top-end TS. This is a large system, which should take some time to get together, and some time to be destroyed by the wall of windshear. Overall, it moves very quickly. It may break that wall and slam into the NE islands by thursday. We wanted rain, there it comes.

Did you see I was not far from 100pct with Danny?

[EyELeSs1]

Looks like low level vort is displaced far to the north of the MLC. Doubt there will be an upgrade anytime soon.

[cycloneye]

Until both align there will not be upgrade.But is a matter of time before the circulations join and then will be liftoff.

[Alyono]

no imminent development based upon the poor level of organization. As I said, this likely has to wait a few days

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-40&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[Blown Away]

no imminent development based upon the poor level of organization. As I said, this likely has to wait a few days

Currently 98L is just over 72 hours from the islands... I think they will make a call on classifying this sooner than later... 98L is flying!!

[Nederlander]

no imminent development based upon the poor level of organization. As I said, this likely has to wait a few days

Currently 98L is just over 72 hours from the islands... I think they will make a call on classifying this sooner than later... 98L is flying!!

I am seeing multiple vorts and as others have said, until we can get consolidation with a stacked llc and mlc, then an upgrade is not likely. It may happen later tonight however.

[Gustywind]

When is the next ASCAT pass? I think that's what the NHC waits for to upgrade to TD5

Ouragans what are your best guess related to 98L? Remember given the latest weather forecasts our Pro Mets of Meteo-France expect a perturbation that you could concern Guadeloupe Friday or Saturday. Any ideas about 98L? Thanks

Hi my friend.
My guess on this is a weak cat.1 not far from us, or a top-end TS. This is a large system, which should take some time to get together, and some time to be destroyed by the wall of windshear. Overall, it moves very quickly. It may break that wall and slam into the NE islands by thursday. We wanted rain, there it comes.

Did you see I was not far from 100pct with Danny?

Ok, yeah i noticied that concerning you % with Danny . Ok for 98L, yeah we want it but we have not see it. The situation is becoming worrying but we're Lucky compared to others islands like PR. Cycloneye we hope that the next feature could produce some nice rain for you like Msbee . Keeping our fingers crossed.

[cycloneye]

Updated 12z Best Track increase winds to TS strength at 35kts so if this is upgraded it will skip TD status to then be Tropical Storm Erika.


Location: 14.2°N 43.6°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

[TheStormExpert]

I still think until 98L slows down it will struggle to develop much.

My question now is when is it going to slow down if at all?

2000th post BTW!

[SouthFLTropics]

no imminent development based upon the poor level of organization. As I said, this likely has to wait a few days

Currently 98L is just over 72 hours from the islands... I think they will make a call on classifying this sooner than later... 98L is flying!!

The fact that it is flying is probably the reason why it is having a harder time consolidating. We've seen this with fast moving systems before. If it gets stacked then it will take off I'm sure, but it may need to slow down in order to do so.

SFT

[wxman57]

I think that this disturbance will be moving across the NE Caribbean Wednesday night, probably in about the same shape Danny is currently. Could be a struggling TD/TS when it passes (like Danny). Rain will be the primary impact. It's best chance of becoming a strong TS or H will be if it passes north of the Caribbean and recurves toward Bermuda in 8-10 days.