EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

Her convection is very intense.

[Yellow Evan]

For a good laugh, check out the October 22 0145Z raw T spit out by CIMSS ADT.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/20E-list.txt

2015OCT22 014500 3.4 996.7 53.0 3.4 3.8 7.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -42.16 -81.24 EYE -99 IR -22.6 13.67 100.82 COMBO GOES13 33.8

lololol

[1900hurricane]

Building extremely fast.

[Yellow Evan]

Once that dry slot closes, this could bomb out extremely fast. I'm getting Kenna vibes from this not gonna lie...

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS. Central Jalisco this run. This would keep Manzanillo well outside the core and bring this into a sparsely populated area

[1900hurricane]

Just got a new GPM pass at 0356Z. Center at ~14*N, 101*W would put it in the crease seen on the 0345Z IR frame. 89 GHz has the ring a little weak on the west side (not a huge surprise given IR), but 36 GHz shows a solid complete eyewall at the lower levels. Patricia is probably about to go off.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 13:31:01 N Lon : 100:32:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 983.9mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.9

Center Temp : -62.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

[brunota2003]

I had a strong RI signal around 0Z (roughly), given the 6-9 hours before the real RI kicks off, that would put the start between 2 am and 5 am EDT. This was a strong signal, I think we could see a rapid run for 120-125 knots.

The posts in this forum are not official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are solely the opinions of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to your local weather service's products.

[Kingarabian]

brunota2003 is back

[brunota2003]

brunota2003 is back

I do still lurk, definitely not as active as I used to be, though but this one definitely has my attention! Really good conditions, and very few downsides...don't let that IR image fool you, it only takes one good burst to snap it all together (especially now that the inner core is mostly worked out!)

[Extratropical94]

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia has become significantly better organized overnight, with
an eye evident on infrared imagery, and the system now has
well-defined convective banding features. The initial intensity
estimate is set at 75 kt, which is above the Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB at 0600 UTC to account for the increased organization
since that time. This is also in good agreement with the most
recent ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow is strong,
as evidenced by the expanding cirrus canopy.

The hurricane has been moving a little faster toward the
west-northwest, or around 295/15 kt. There has not been much change
to the track forecast philosophy. Patricia is likely to move around
the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area
during the next day or so. By late Friday, the system should turn
toward the north-northeast as it moves between the high and a
trough over extreme northwestern Mexico. The official track
forecast is nudged very slightly to the west to account for a
slight westward shift in the GFS/ECMWF consensus. This is also
very close to the overall dynamical model consensus.

The environment appears to be very conducive for strengthening for
the next 24 hours or so, with some increase in south-southwesterly
shear and some mid-tropospheric drying later on Friday. An earlier
37 GHz GPM image showed a cyan ring around the eye, which often
presages rapid intensification. Given that, and the currently
favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, rapid strengthening
(30 kt over 24 h) is forecast through tonight followed by a slower
pace of intensification up to landfall. This is in good agreement
with the latest DSHIPS prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 102.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 15.3N 103.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 20.3N 104.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0600Z 25.0N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[WeatherGuesser]

5 Day track looks like it'll be in south Texas Monday or Tuesday.

[Kingarabian]

Such an angry looking storm. Usually see these type of storms in the WPAC. Look how cold the cloud tops are...

[NDG]

Looks like Hurricane Patricia in combination with the ULL will be a possible trouble maker for Texas, rainwise.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
700 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...PATRICIA INTENSIFYING QUICKLY...
...PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETED
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 103.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Yikes!

[Ntxw]

I would not be the least bit surprised if this made a run for cat 5. When does recon come in?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recent
microwave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery.
The initial intensity is set to 85 kt, a bit above the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T4.7/82 kt, and this could be a little
conservative if the eye becomes more distinct in infrared imagery.
Even so, Patricia has intensified 50 kt in the last 24 hours. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today and
provide valuable information on the intensity and structure of the
hurricane.

The environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapid
strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of
very low shear and SSTs above 30C. In fact, the SHIPS RI index
shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours.
The official forecast is close to the upper end of the guidance near
the LGEM, and shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by this
evening and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Little
change in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, as
southwesterly shear begins to increase. After landfall, Patricia
should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should
dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours.

The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward, with an
initial motion estimate of 295/15. The track forecast philosophy has
not changed, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then
northward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery
of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the
hurricane should turn north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track has
again been shifted a little to the left to account for the initial
motion and is near the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus on the western
side of the guidance envelope.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning from north of Cabo
Corrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area.

Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and
property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as
tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area
tonight or early Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

I would not be the least bit surprised if this made a run for cat 5. When does recon come in?

This afternoon around 1:30 PM - 2 PM EDT plane reaches eye.

[weatherwindow]

Good morning, Luis...can we calculate the closest approach to Isla Navidad with the current forecast advisory? Notice that we have a member, zeehag, that may be under the gun there.. Greetings from Key West, Rich