WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF may have initialized too far north on the 12z run. One thing I also notice about the run is that they make 94C into a typhoon while other models do not. Given the mid level shear there, that looks unlikely.

[Alyono]

ECMWF may have initialized too far north on the 12z run. One thing I also notice about the run is that they make 94C into a typhoon while other models do not. Given the mid level shear there, that looks unlikely.

too broad is the problem. It takes 4 days to get ramped up. Unreasonable. It gets caught by the trough, but it's at 163.5W instead of 161.5W. It gets caught 2 degrees farther west of the MU

[srainhoutx]

Now EC has stalled it, once it starts to intensify it significantly. It sends it far west because it keeps it too weak, too long

Still worrisome to see the trends today. At least the windshield wiper affect via guidance has ceased. RECON Tail #304 is about 1000 ENE of Oahu inbound to Hickam from Travis AFB. Tail #304 is about 300 miles NNE of Maui.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF may have initialized too far north on the 12z run. One thing I also notice about the run is that they make 94C into a typhoon while other models do not. Given the mid level shear there, that looks unlikely.

too broad is the problem. It takes 4 days to get ramped up. Unreasonable. It gets caught by the trough, but it's at 163.5W instead of 161.5W. It gets caught 2 degrees farther west of the MU

Both the GFS and ECMWF agree that there is ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, and troughing further southwest.

It's going to come down to how fast this gets going. If I'm the CPHC, I'm in between the two extremes

[Alyono]

cphc has a position that appears to be too far west. The interpolated models are well west of the raw model output

[Yellow Evan]

cphc has a position that appears to be too far west. The interpolated models are well west of the raw model output

CPHC has this at 10.8N 149.5W. Maybe IMO a hair fuurther SE, at like 10.6N 149.2W.

[Kingarabian]

Man these model runs are getting scarier.

Glad they finally designated it.

[srainhoutx]

18Z Track and Intensity guidance.

[Kingarabian]

More spread to the east from the looks of it.

Yellow Evan, you were right. SAB is 2.0, must be the reason why the CPHC pulled the trigger.

[Alyono]

those interpolated models are based upon the very poor CPHC initial position. That is why they show a track west of Hawaii, when the raw model output is over Hawaii

[Yellow Evan]

Here I'd follow the TVCN consensus with this kind of storm.

[Yellow Evan]

A. Tropical disturbance 93C.

B. 20/1730Z.

C. 10.8°N.

D. 149.5°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.0/2.0/d0.5/24 hrs.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Curved band of 0.30 wrap yields a DT of 2.0. PT is 2.0 as is met. FT based on DT.

I. Addl positions 20/1630Z 9.8°N 148.8°W ssmis.

$$

Burke.

[Alyono]

A. Tropical disturbance 93C.

B. 20/1730Z.

C. 10.8°N.

D. 149.5°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.0/2.0/d0.5/24 hrs.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Curved band of 0.30 wrap yields a DT of 2.0. PT is 2.0 as is met. FT based on DT.

I. Addl positions 20/1630Z 9.8°N 148.8°W ssmis.

$$

Burke.

1 degree west of every other position

[Alyono]

448
WTPA21 PHFO 202049
TCMCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 150.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 150.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 149.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.1N 152.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.9N 154.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 158.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.9N 160.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.4N 163.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N 163.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N 162.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 150.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

CANNOT believe they initialized that far west. Visible is clear. Their track is basically interpolated 1 to 2 degrees too far west

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST THU AUG 20 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE-C. THIS IS THE SIXTH TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN FOR THE 2015 SEASON. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 30 KT FROM PHFO AND
SAB...AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 280/14 KT. THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE
CENTER POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS MAKES THIS MOVEMENT
UNCERTAIN. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY LINED UP WITH A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH TWO DAYS AS THREE-C MOVES
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...
A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL AIDS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF
THE TURN WITH THE HWRF AND GFS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND
THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE. THE TIMING OF THE TURN WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON WHEN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OCCURS. THE LONGER IT
TAKES...THE FARTHER WEST THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE MAKING THE
TURN AND THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS
THROUGH THE PACKAGE WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACHING
THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FIVE DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...OVER
29C...BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE FLATTENING OF THE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE EAST SIDE AND THE CIMSS 1800 UTC SHEAR
ANALYSIS SHOWING MORE THAN 20 KT. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE WEAKENING SHEAR AND
THE VERY WARM WATERS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT. THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PARAMETER ALSO SHOWS A 47 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR THE 25 KT THRESHOLD. THUS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
THREE-C TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE IVCN CONSENSUS.

U.S AIR FORCE RESERVE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPLOYING TO HAWAII AND A WC-130J IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN
INITIAL PASS THROUGH THREE-C FRIDAY EVENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 11.0N 150.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.1N 152.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 12.9N 154.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 13.7N 158.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 14.9N 160.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 17.4N 163.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 19.6N 163.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 21.0N 162.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[TheStormExpert]

[Alyono]

more evidence CPHC is wrong in their position

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... =composite

what happened, was the AVNI and the consensus models are interpolated to the CPHC position. Their position is 2 degrees too far west

[Yellow Evan]

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 22/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01AAC INVEST
C. 22/0100Z
D. 14.5N 155.0W
E. 22/0300Z TO 22/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT
22/1800Z NEAR 15.2N 158.4W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Why was Recon pushed back?

[Yellow Evan]

12z HWRF

[Yellow Evan]

12z JMA