ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

I think that this disturbance will be moving across the NE Caribbean Wednesday night, probably in about the same shape Danny is currently. Could be a struggling TD/TS when it passes (like Danny). Rain will be the primary impact. It's best chance of becoming a strong TS or H will be if it passes north of the Caribbean and recurves toward Bermuda in 8-10 days.

Are we certain that this is going to recurve?

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS run shows this system into South Florida by hour 138 and it could be a drought buster! Comon 98L, head our way and stay weak! Also Puerto Rico looks to get some beneficial rains.

[cycloneye]

NHC may sit back and wait for Recon to go on Tuesday afternoon unless both the LLC and MLC stack up before that mission.

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 7m7 minutes ago
Remember ASCAT has >1 solution. #98L a good case for scrutinizing the ambiguities, not just using automated solution

[cycloneye]

Or they are waiting for 98L to move close to bouy 41041.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[tropicwatch]

Nice burst of convection.

[tropicwatch]

Or they are waiting for 98L to move close to bouy 41041.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Already reporting a pressure of 1007mb

[OURAGAN]

1006 MB and 35 KNOTS at NRL Monterey, is it already a tropical Storm?

[tolakram]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Or they are waiting for 98L to move close to bouy 41041.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Already reporting a pressure of 1007mb

...and its still falling at a pretty good clip

[SouthFLTropics]

JB tweeted 2 hours ago that he thinks it's at least a TD already. Of course, he's not the official word so we shall wait and see from the NHC. If the convection keeps building I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the trigger at 5:00PM, assuming there is good evidence of an LLC.

SFT

[cycloneye]

Great loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1007 MB LOW HAS
A CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. THIS
LOW IS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

[tropicwatch]

No TWO yet, hmmm. Nevermind just came out.

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 950 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization. Conditions appear
favorable for development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so
while it moves westward near 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Hurricane Andrew]

Great loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Very easy to see the LLC wrapping up in the new convective bursts. Quite a pretty system, could ramp up at a steady clip once it really gets going.

[Hammy]

Wording of TWO tells me they are in no hurry at all to upgrade, and I doubt they will at this point prior to the recon. Probably just as well as there did not appear to be a clearly defined (or closed) circulation on the ASCAT pass earlier.

As an aside, how often do the buoys report, as this could give an indication of the organization since it looks like it'll pass just north of the one linked.

[floridasun78]

when we see watch go up for islands for maybe next ts ?

[alienstorm]

Looking at the last loop and the fact that it is wrapping up around the LLC I would say the upgrade will happen at 5 PM as long as this trends continue.

[AutoPenalti]

Any update on the magic trough?