ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

[WPBWeather]

I stand corrected. The mighty MDR!

[curtadams]

Is this a fairly certain early recurve? because if Fred decides to defy the models like Danny and Erika did then Fred could be an interesting watch over the next week.

Actually the models are *not* showing an early recurve. CMC, GFS, Navgem, and the EURO are showing no recurve out to 144 hours, and generally under a ridge at that point. They *are* showing a lot of weakening while in the mid Atlantic, including outright dissipation in a few cases.

[Hammy]

its really only been since 2013. We had 3 cat 3s in 2011 and I believe 11 hurricanes in 2012

I probably should've specified, the MDR began struggling in 2011 (as most of the hurricanes were above 20N I believe.)

Fred appears to be further strengthening, it's quite strange to see something this far east doing this. It goes to show how vastly different conditions are in the deep tropical Atlantic this year despite being El Nino, compared to 2013-14.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 21.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[Lifeless]

Just 9mph away from a Hurricane, will likely reach hurricane status by this evening, if not in the morning.

[Alyono]

one other thing about Fred, the Cape Verde Islands will receive or exceed the average annual rainfall totals just from this storm. Flooding worse than was experienced on Dominica may be likely.

[SouthDadeFish]

Glad to see the NHC recognize the presence of the cyan ring on 37 GHz imagery and increase the rate of intensification. Fred will likely be one of the worst TCs Cape Verde has ever experienced.

[Alyono]

looks to have leveled off for now

[1900hurricane]

Well, color me impressed.

[ConvergenceZone]

Geez, at least if something is going to curve out to sea later, at least have it become a cat 2 or 3 later on instead of weaken to a depression...........Boring!!!!....... I highly doubt this thread is going to get much traffic........ Next?

[ninel conde]

looks like the third storm in a row to die over tropical waters.

[galaxy401]

Geez, at least if something is going to curve out to sea later, at least have it become a cat 2 or 3 later on instead of weaken to a depression...........Boring!!!!....... I highly doubt this thread is going to get much traffic........ Next?

Are you being sarcastic?

Yes let's completely look over this storm that could potentially be a record breaking event for the Cape Verde islands.

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge seems to build back in at 216hr which should keep it going west for a while, should monitor it.

[WPBWeather]

I see one MDR denier showed up a few posts back!

[Alyono]

had leveled off for a while, but it looks to be intensifying again. Probably will be a cane for the CV island.s Worst impacts will be for the NW Islands. While not the population of the capital, there are more than 200,000 people that may receive a direct hit from this

[CrazyC83]

Anybody know of the surge impact potential for this region.

Not easily, since there is no record of this kind of storm hitting those islands.

[gatorcane]

had leveled off for a while, but it looks to be intensifying again. Probably will be a cane for the CV island.s Worst impacts will be for the NW Islands. While not the population of the capital, there are more than 200,000 people that may receive a direct hit from this

Wow that is a lot of people that are going to be impacted. Didn't realize that many people lived in the Cape Verde islands. Good luck to them.

Saved loop:

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
800 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 21.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[tolakram]

Live loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=25

IR
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=15

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Geez, at least if something is going to curve out to sea later, at least have it become a cat 2 or 3 later on instead of weaken to a depression...........Boring!!!!....... I highly doubt this thread is going to get much traffic........ Next?

Are you being sarcastic?

Yes let's completely look over this storm that could potentially be a record breaking event for the Cape Verde islands.

Some people only think it is important if it effects them. It's just the way they are.