ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[NDG]

Latest shortwave loop. Looks like the "llc" isn't moving a whole lot. My best guess is a slow NE drift. Looks to have stalled maybe towards the end of the loop:

http://i.imgur.com/fKhmHyx.gif

Yeah, the surface low is not moving much while the convection keeps been pushed away from it.

[rickybobby]

Latest shortwave loop. Looks like the "llc" isn't moving a whole lot. My best guess is a slow NE drift. Looks to have stalled maybe towards the end of the loop:

http://i.imgur.com/fKhmHyx.gif

Yeah, the surface low is not moving much while the convection keeps been pushed away from it.

What does that mean? Thanks

[NDG]

Latest shortwave loop. Looks like the "llc" isn't moving a whole lot. My best guess is a slow NE drift. Looks to have stalled maybe towards the end of the loop:

http://i.imgur.com/fKhmHyx.gif

Yeah, the surface low is not moving much while the convection keeps been pushed away from it.

What does that mean? Thanks

It cannot organize tropically because the shear keeps pushing the convection away from the surface low center.

[northjaxpro]

This will be the theme I think from here on out. Shear will continually blow away convection away from the LLC. You just can not get a system to organize in the face of such extreme hostile conditions.

[Weatherwatcher98]

That is unless a New Center forms east. Like I said, watching the area near 25 that has been persistent

[N2FSU]

Convection hanging in there, but relentless shear.

[caneman]

Anyone else notice that hook?,Looks like it is starting to try.and wrap up at 25.and 86 may have found a pocket of low shear.

[Hurricaneman]

Anyone else notice that hook?,Looks like it is starting to try.and wrap up at 25.and 86 may have found a pocket of low shear.

Could be a relocation but I have my doubts as I think what you're following is the MLC while the LLC is North of the Yucatan

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[caneman]

It may.be.but the llc appears to be getting closer and closer to it. It's more than 50 percents covered with convection now may have found a pocket of lower shear.

[stormhunter7]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/ir2-animated.gif

maybe my eyes are getting tired, but i think 99L has slowed the NNE movement in the last few hours?

[Sanibel]

The Loop Current should maintain what it's doing anyway.

[northjaxpro]

The LLC is still to the north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with all the significant convection still well removed from the LLC.

The floater imagery below details well the exposed LLC spinning just north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the deep convection sheared well off to the east and northeast of the LLC. A very hostile environment for 99L which will only get worse as time progresses.

[NDG]

It may.be.but the llc appears to be getting closer and closer to it. It's more than 50 percents covered with convection now may have found a pocket of lower shear.

Like many of us write all the time that looks are deceiving, ASCAT showed that the circulation is still broad, no LLC and it is not so close to the convection. Let me repeat myself, no evidence of a defined LLC.

[NDG]

The surface COC remains weak, broad and elongated this morning.

[northjaxpro]

Yes it is very weak and may not be closed off imo as the recent ASCAT shows a faint swirl. It may barely be a discernable COC at this point. The prospects for 99L to me looks bleak as the shear will only get worse as time progresses.

[caneman]

It may.be.but the llc appears to be getting closer and closer to it. It's more than 50 percents covered with convection now may have found a pocket of lower shear.

Like many of us write all the time that looks are deceiving, ASCAT showed that the circulation is still broad, no LLC and it is not so close to the convection. Let me repeat myself, no evidence of a defined LLC.

ndg, im not quite sure why you want to keep insisting in many posts that there is no llc. Dont let your early prediction of no development skew what has and is taking place.. There is an llc and has been an llc and i was correct as the 5 am nhc update clearly mentions there is. Im,quite aware that looks can be deceiving. Ive been tracking these for over 15 years. It furthers states there is a moderate chance for development. In addition, the llc is and has been moving in a nne direction. Well see if gets under the convection and what happens then. Im glad to see the nhc verify my thoughts. There is in an llc with a moderate shot at devlopment. I'll go with their word on it and my eyes.

[caneman]

Further, the ull is backing away and im starting to notice popcorning of convection. Im not saying it will develop but conditions look to be becoming.more favorable and the overall structure looks better. Nhc gives it 40 percent but I'd say a 50 50 shot. Imho

[NDG]

It may.be.but the llc appears to be getting closer and closer to it. It's more than 50 percents covered with convection now may have found a pocket of lower shear.

Like many of us write all the time that looks are deceiving, ASCAT showed that the circulation is still broad, no LLC and it is not so close to the convection. Let me repeat myself, no evidence of a defined LLC.

ndg, im not quite sure why you want to keep insisting in many posts that there is no llc. Dont let your early prediction of no development skew what has and is taking place.. There is an llc and has been an llc and i was correct as the 5 am nhc update clearly mentions there is. Im,quite aware that looks can be deceiving. Ive been tracking these for over 15 years. It furthers states there is a moderate chance for development. In addition, the llc is and has been moving in a nne direction. Well see if gets under the convection and what happens then. Im glad to see the nhc verify my thoughts. There is in an llc with a moderate shot at devlopment. I'll go with their word on it and my eyes.

The evidence that I posted says it all, there's no defined LLC, what you guys were looking at was nothing more than two weak eddies rotating around each other. Now, where's your evidence????
BTW, chances back down to 30%

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure centered over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico, about 300 miles west of Key West, is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends from western
Cuba northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The circulation
associated with this system has become a little less well defined
since yesterday, and upper-level winds are not favorable for
significant development. The system is expected to move northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast over the next 24 to 36 hours, to the
east of a broader non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of whether or not the system becomes a
tropical cyclone, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
the southeastern United States during the next few days. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service and products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[CYCLONE MIKE]

nhc has actually dropped it down to 30%. Says its weaker and more disorganized since yesterday. Should continue to drop from here on out as shear gets stronger like ndg and northjax have said.

Guess I was a little late for 99l's going away party since cycloneye already posted it