EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

I'd say Carlos has been pretty steady state. There's nothing to really suggest weakening as it does to its credit, have an eye on radar. Shear just needs to subside.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Carlos has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The deep convection in satellite imagery is asymmetric, with the
coldest cloud tops currently east of the center. In addition,
data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco shows that the eyewall is
having trouble becoming a closed ring around the 15-20 n mi wide
eye. These conditions are likely due to continued moderate
northeasterly vertical wind shear and perhaps some dry air
entrainment. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain
55 kt and 45 kt respectively, so the initial intensity remains 50
kt.

The center of Carlos has made an eastward turn during the past
several hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 045/2.
Water vapor imagery shows a large mid to upper-level trough over
the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico, and this may be the cause of
the current motion. The large-scale models forecast a ridge to
build over Mexico over the weekend, which should then cause Carlos
to move west-northwestward nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Early next week, a mid to upper-level trough over the southwestern
United States is forecast to move into northwestern Mexico, which
could cause Carlos to turn northwestward toward the Gulf of
California or the Baja California Peninsula by Tuesday. The new
forecast track is similar to but adjusted somewhat north of the
previous one, and it brings the center of Carlos a little closer
to the coast of mainland Mexico. It should be noted that any motion
to the right of the forecast track could bring the center onshore in
mainland Mexico as forecast by the latest GFS run.

The large-scale models suggest the current shear should abate after
12-24 hours, which in theory should allow Carlos to strengthen.
However, most of the intensity guidance forecasts only slow
strengthening during the next 72 hours, which may be due to a
combination of drier air aloft and possible land interaction. After
72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to
cause Carlos to weaken. The new intensity forecast is unchanged
from the previous one, and it remains at the upper end of the
intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 14.8N 100.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.0N 100.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.4N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 22.0N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 130532
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
100 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...CARLOS NEARLY STATIONARY AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 100.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 100.1 West. Carlos has
been nearly stationary during the past few hours, but a drift toward
the north or northwest is anticipated later today. A slow motion
toward the west-northwest is expected later today and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Carlos is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are beginning to spread over portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca
and Guerrero, and will continue to affect these areas during the
next couple of days.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS has shifted a bit east and ha sa landfall in Jalisco by day 4.

0z ECMWF has this hitting near Yuma by day 9.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUN 2015 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 14:50:40 N Lon : 100:04:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 990.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -75.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 130614
TCSENP

A. 03E (CARLOS)

B. 13/0545Z

C. 14.7N

D. 100.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/WINDSAT/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON 1.1 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. BANDING TYPE EYE APPARENT
IN MICROWAVE AND POSSIBLY IN LATEST IR IMAGE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/0012Z 14.7N 100.1W SSMIS
13/0022Z 14.7N 100.0W WINDSAT
13/0334Z 14.6N 99.9W AMSU
13/0428Z 14.9N 99.8W AMSU

I'd go 60.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUN 2015 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 14:52:01 N Lon : 100:04:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 990.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -63.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

The overall structure of the cloud pattern has changed very little
during the past several hours. One can still observe an intermittent
ring of convection associated with the center of the cyclone on the
Acapulco radar. However, Dvorak T-numbers and data from a recent
ASCAT pass suggest that the winds are now up to 55 kt. The moderate
northeasterly shear which is affecting the storm should begin to
decrease in about 24 hours, allowing some strengthening. Although
Carlos is forecast to be over relatively warm waters in 72 hours,
but the shear will likely increase again. Consequently, most of the
guidance weaken the cyclone after that time, and this is reflected
in the NHC forecast.

Carlos has been meandering for the past 24 hours or so, but it
appears that it now moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at
2 kt. Most of the global guidance show a ridge building over
Mexico, and this pattern should steer Carlos slowly toward the
northwest or west-northwest nearly parallel to the coast of
Mexico during the next 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the
ridge over the Baja California peninsula should allow Carlos to
move on a more north-northwesterly track. The NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the guidance
envelope. It is, however, a little bit to the left of the GFS/ECMWF
consensus beyond 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.8N 100.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.1N 100.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.5N 101.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 17.8N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 131156
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...CARLOS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 100.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 100.2 West. Carlos is
currently stationary but is expected to move slowly northwestward
later today. A slight increase in forward speed is expected
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next
day or two, and Carlos could become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by tonight or Sunday.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the
southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca
and Guerrero, during the next couple of days.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 72 71 68 67 63 60 52 45 43 41
V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 72 71 68 67 63 60 52 45 43 41
V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 74 77 78 80 82 83 83 82 80 77 72
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 10 9 7 7 8 2 3 6 6 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 0 1 0 -1 -4 -3 0 0 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 36 39 34 36 42 45 42 58 102 105 235 164 199
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 162 161 159 157 158 158 155 152 147 141
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 8 9 7 8 6 8 6 8 5
700-500 MB RH 72 67 69 68 67 66 62 61 58 57 56 56 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 17 16 14 10 10 8 7 4 2 2 3
850 MB ENV VOR 21 20 34 34 23 28 8 5 -3 1 -13 -15 -13
200 MB DIV 65 59 42 37 38 70 26 37 0 5 -21 -8 -5
700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 3
LAND (KM) 213 199 186 185 185 180 164 157 117 86 63 145 210
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 16.2 16.6 17.2 18.3 19.3 20.5 21.2 21.7
LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.3 100.4 100.8 101.3 102.3 103.3 104.3 105.3 105.9 106.3 106.9 107.7
STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 7 6 6 6 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 43 41 40 37 37 42 30 14 8 8 9 10 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -10. -11. -14. -15. -20. -23. -22. -20.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 2. -2. -5. -13. -20. -22. -24.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

Satellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged
eye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery. In addition,
radar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become
established, although it is still open on the north side. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial
intensity.

After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a
northwestward drift. For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge
over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the
west-northwest. Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward.
However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected
yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Track guidance has been steadily shifting
eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While
I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has
been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico.
Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
warning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast.

Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with
decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will
occur over the next day or so. However, there is very poor
agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing
atmospheric factors and possible land interaction. The new NHC
forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from
the previous one. It is worth noting that the normally
conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction.

With Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on
record that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern
Pacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUN 2015 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 14:51:36 N Lon : 100:09:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 987.6mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -45.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.7C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

[cycloneye]

Yellow Even,they will go on Monday.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....FIX HURRICANE CARLOS
AT 15/1730Z NEAR 17.5N 103.5W.

[Yellow Evan]

I was just about to post that

A little surprised they sent it since with 91L and Carlos at the same time, it kills some funds.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Carlos is really getting better organized. It will start to impact Mexico later tonight with winds, heavy rain, and high surfs. Satellite imagery is showing an eye is popping out.



Synopsis on Carlos and others: http://goo.gl/MdOACo

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,you think upwelling may become an issue again as it did for Blanca?

[northjaxpro]

The very latest visible imagery appears to be showing the eye emerging with Carlos

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,you think upwelling may become an issue again as it did for Blanca?

I really don't know. I will say that this storm should be moving soon and is showing no signs of upwelling and OHC values are really high.

[cycloneye]

Looks good on radar.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye starting to clear out on VIS.

This may make a run at major after all.