EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
10 best analogs.There is another Blanca (June,1991) there as the majority are out to sea but a few are with landfalls.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
A small low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing an area of showers and
thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane
Andres are likely to inhibit development of this low through
Monday. However, a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of the week while the system drifts generally northwestward
and then becomes nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing an area of showers and
thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane
Andres are likely to inhibit development of this low through
Monday. However, a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of the week while the system drifts generally northwestward
and then becomes nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
EP, 93, 2015053112, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1021W, 25, 1008, LO
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
What I see from the models on intensity is a slow ramp up with GFS falling fast as it moves over colder waters.SHIP goes to cat 2.
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Yellow Evan
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932015 05/31/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 30 39 47 55 65 76 86 91
V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 30 39 47 55 65 76 86 91
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 20 22 25 30 37 45 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 26 31 31 27 20 10 4 5 7 8 12 19 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -4 -7 -4 -2 -2 -4 -6 0 -2 -1 1
SHEAR DIR 306 308 310 312 320 318 346 26 49 77 88 74 71
SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 168 166 163 161 159 160 161 159 160 159
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.2 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 84 85 83 84 84 82 76 73 72 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 13 16 20 23 29 33
850 MB ENV VOR -47 -45 -53 -62 -54 -48 -32 -13 8 16 22 38 41
200 MB DIV 56 57 68 69 71 124 74 91 73 127 136 166 150
700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 575 577 578 580 575 567 598 626 692 798 930 1046 1115
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.1 12.4 11.7 11.1 10.9
LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.6 103.1 103.7 104.2 105.1 105.9 106.4 106.9 107.6 108.7 109.7 110.6
STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 6 6 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 78 83 86 86 87 86 74 62 53 51 72 77 79
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 27. 34. 40.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 30. 40. 51. 61. 66.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932015 05/31/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 30 39 47 55 65 76 86 91
V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 30 39 47 55 65 76 86 91
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 20 22 25 30 37 45 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 26 31 31 27 20 10 4 5 7 8 12 19 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -4 -7 -4 -2 -2 -4 -6 0 -2 -1 1
SHEAR DIR 306 308 310 312 320 318 346 26 49 77 88 74 71
SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 168 166 163 161 159 160 161 159 160 159
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.2 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 84 85 83 84 84 82 76 73 72 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 13 16 20 23 29 33
850 MB ENV VOR -47 -45 -53 -62 -54 -48 -32 -13 8 16 22 38 41
200 MB DIV 56 57 68 69 71 124 74 91 73 127 136 166 150
700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 575 577 578 580 575 567 598 626 692 798 930 1046 1115
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.1 12.4 11.7 11.1 10.9
LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.6 103.1 103.7 104.2 105.1 105.9 106.4 106.9 107.6 108.7 109.7 110.6
STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 6 6 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 78 83 86 86 87 86 74 62 53 51 72 77 79
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 27. 34. 40.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 30. 40. 51. 61. 66.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
16:05 UTC discussion:
Interesting sentence about track.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
NEAR 12N102W WITH MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. NW SHEAR RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM ANDRES IS IMPACTING
THIS LOW...AND NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES. AN EARLIER ASCAT
SATELLITE PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 60 NM ON
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRESSURE. THE STRONG UPPER
WINDS RELATED TO ANDRES WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW PRES AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
TUE...ALLOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...POSSIBLY
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MID WEEK AS IT DRIFTS NORTH AND
BECOMES STATIONARY. FORECAST TRACK AT THIS STAGE CONTINUES TO
FOLLOW THE ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS.
Interesting sentence about track.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
NEAR 12N102W WITH MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. NW SHEAR RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM ANDRES IS IMPACTING
THIS LOW...AND NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES. AN EARLIER ASCAT
SATELLITE PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 60 NM ON
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRESSURE. THE STRONG UPPER
WINDS RELATED TO ANDRES WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW PRES AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
TUE...ALLOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...POSSIBLY
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MID WEEK AS IT DRIFTS NORTH AND
BECOMES STATIONARY. FORECAST TRACK AT THIS STAGE CONTINUES TO
FOLLOW THE ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS.
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Lowest pressure by 12z GFS is 944 mbs.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Up to 70%-90%
Satellite imagery indicates that a well-defined area of low pressure
has formed about 375 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane Andres are
currently limiting the organization of the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity. However, conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development during the next day or so and a
tropical depression is likely to form by mid-week while the system
drifts generally northwestward and then becomes nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Satellite imagery indicates that a well-defined area of low pressure
has formed about 375 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane Andres are
currently limiting the organization of the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity. However, conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development during the next day or so and a
tropical depression is likely to form by mid-week while the system
drifts generally northwestward and then becomes nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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Updated: Satellite imagery indicates that thunderstorm activity
associated with the well-defined area of low pressure located about
375 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has become
sufficiently well organized to designate the system as a tropical
depression. A special advisory on Tropical Depression Two-E will be
issued soon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent
What?
associated with the well-defined area of low pressure located about
375 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has become
sufficiently well organized to designate the system as a tropical
depression. A special advisory on Tropical Depression Two-E will be
issued soon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent
What?
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cycloneye
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Updated: Satellite imagery indicates that thunderstorm activity
associated with the well-defined area of low pressure located about
375 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has become
sufficiently well organized to designate the system as a tropical
depression. A special advisory on Tropical Depression Two-E will be
issued soon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent
What?
Explosive development going on.
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Yellow Evan
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Wow. Can't wait for ADT values. 
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 530 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 103.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 530 PM CDT (2230 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E
was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 103.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h.
A slow and erratic motion is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 530 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 103.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 530 PM CDT (2230 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E
was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 103.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h.
A slow and erratic motion is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane Jed
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
Visible satellite images this afternoon indicate that deep
convection has developed over the center of the well-defined low
pressure system to the south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Therefore the
system qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being
initiated at this time.
The initial motion estimate is 300/05. The depression is located
in a region of weak steering but with enough ridging in the short
term for the cyclone to drift generally west-northwestward to
northwestward through Monday. In 36-48 hours, a mid-level
ridge located west of the cyclone could impart an unusual southward
motion for a day or so. After that time, global models show
stronger ridging developing over northern Mexico and the
south-central United States, which should result in a faster
west-northwestward or northwestward motion. The official NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE) throughout the
forecast period.
Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear associated with the
outflow of Hurricane Andres should preclude significant
intensification during the next day or two. After that time, the
shear is expected to become northeasterly and decrease
substantially, while the cyclone moves slowly in a moist
environment and over very warm waters of around 30 deg C. These
factors should lead to a faster rate intensification, perhaps
greater than what is currently forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the SHIPS and HWRF models, which show the
most strengthening of the intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2230Z 12.4N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.1N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 13.8N 104.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 13.3N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 12.3N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 12.7N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.0N 107.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch
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Yellow Evan
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Hurricane Jed
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Hurricane Jed wrote:Check out the forecast track for TD 2-E.
It's like a Z.
Connect the dots anyone? Anyhow since this is projected to become a cane would be the first time since 85 a storm named Blanca becomes a cane. Would also be only the second time since 78 that both A and B storms become majors if 2-E does indeed become a major hurricane down the road. 95's Adolph and Barbara the only ones to do it.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression
More EPAC records will be beaten soon.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 4m4 minutes ago
I believe the earliest 2nd #hurricane in the EPac is June 5/00z (1990). Could beat that by about a day given latest @NHC_Pacific forecast
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 4m4 minutes ago
I believe the earliest 2nd #hurricane in the EPac is June 5/00z (1990). Could beat that by about a day given latest @NHC_Pacific forecast
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