EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneTracker2031]

94E just needs some more convection to get going. It already has a good structure for it to form. We shall see.


Synopsis for 94E and other basins: http://goo.gl/5v4Tpy

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during the
next couple of days while this system moves slowly northwestward or
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942015 06/09/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 55 62 64 65 66 65
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 55 62 64 53 36 30
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 56 64 57 37 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 14 15 12 11 14 11 7 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 2 3 3 0 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 106 85 77 65 58 61 76 59 53 54 54 38 26
SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 166 167 167 165 164 164 164 165 165 162 157
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 76 75 73 72 73 73 73 69 69 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 10 9 8 10 9 8 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 41 42 43 39 27 45 46 68 63 86 59
200 MB DIV 69 52 56 39 43 64 81 86 59 59 54 75 45
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 2 0 2 0 1
LAND (KM) 699 639 566 503 445 357 282 217 160 72 -34 -126 -195
LAT (DEG N) 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 7 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 23 28 41 50 46 45 44 41 40 44 47 41 40

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 30. 37. 39. 40. 41. 40.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/09/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

Models have shifted west, and more in line with the ECMWF.

HWRF and GFS still bring this onshore in a few days, however. Setup reminds me of Carlotta 12.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed
little in organization over the past 24 hours. However,
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for a tropical
depression to form during the next couple of days while this system
moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS ensembles

vs.



18z GFS ensembles

[NDG]

Models have shifted west, and more in line with the ECMWF.

HWRF and GFS still bring this onshore in a few days, however. Setup reminds me of Carlotta 12.

I would also say that the ECMWF shifted to the right in line with the rest of the models, actually the 12z GFS and 12z Euro are almost identical through 120 hrs with the Euro shifting a good 150-200 miles to the right compared to yesterday's 12z run. The GFS also shifted to the right slightly at 12z run from earlier runs.

[Yellow Evan]

Models have shifted west, and more in line with the ECMWF.

HWRF and GFS still bring this onshore in a few days, however. Setup reminds me of Carlotta 12.

I would also say that the ECMWF shifted to the right in line with the rest of the models, actually the 12z GFS and 12z Euro are almost identical through 120 hrs with the Euro shifting a good 150-200 miles to the right compared to yesterday's 12z run. The GFS also shifted to the right slightly at 12z run from earlier runs.

Looking at it, yea, the 12z ECMWF actually brought it onshore MX, but not at quite the angle the GFS had yesterday.

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2015061000, , BEST, 0, 101N, 966W, 25, 1007, DB

Large spread.

[NDG]

Models have shifted west, and more in line with the ECMWF.

HWRF and GFS still bring this onshore in a few days, however. Setup reminds me of Carlotta 12.

I would also say that the ECMWF shifted to the right in line with the rest of the models, actually the 12z GFS and 12z Euro are almost identical through 120 hrs with the Euro shifting a good 150-200 miles to the right compared to yesterday's 12z run. The GFS also shifted to the right slightly at 12z run from earlier runs.

Looking at it, yea, the 12z ECMWF actually brought it onshore MX, but not at quite the angle the GFS had yesterday.

If you really compare it to yesterday's GFS run is even to the right of it.
Most likely the Euro is over doing the ridging the SE US and some sort of energy of it will track northward across the western GOM.

[NDG]

EP, 94, 2015061000, , BEST, 0, 101N, 966W, 25, 1007, DB

Large spread.

http://i.imgur.com/xjOdvtw.png

I believe the image is from yesterday's run (0z Jun 9)

Edit: I stand corrected, the image is correct, I had looked at it a few minutes ago and I thought it was from yesterday not knowing that it had updated already.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942015 06/10/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 42 51 60 65 66 64 66 67
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 42 51 60 65 58 38 30 28
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 52 60 67 39 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 13 9 10 13 15 7 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 2 1 3 3 -1 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 83 72 60 59 61 74 42 51 46 50 45 N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.7 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 167 167 165 164 164 164 165 166 160 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -51.5 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 8 10 8 11 9 12 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 72 72 73 75 74 71 68 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 11 11 11 8 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 47 50 51 50 52 32 39 37 63 65 87 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 47 36 39 52 55 67 79 54 60 54 45 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 1 4 -3 3 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 623 555 488 436 385 302 235 178 109 -5 -153 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 3 3 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 33 43 45 42 44 48 47 45 46 47 41 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 40. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 26. 35. 40. 41. 39. 41. 42.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/10/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[HurricaneTracker2031]

94E has not strengthened much today. It should be getting its act together soon though, as it will be moving Northward or Northwestward. There are warm SSTs and low wind shear to help it. The models are clueless as where this is in 5 days as it spreads out from the Pacific to the BOC.

Synopsis for 94E and other basins: http://goo.gl/X2qLzw

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

If you really compare it to yesterday's GFS run is even to the right of it.
Most likely the Euro is over doing the ridging the SE US and some sort of energy of it will track northward across the western GOM.

I'd still expect Texas to get some rains from this, but I'm still favor a more leftward track for now.

[tailgater]

Starting to get it's act together.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks much better now.


Should have at least 3 days over water, maybe more if it stays offshore longer. Shear is moderate, so this should only be a minimal hurricane if it stays on the right of the guidance.

[fendie]

18z HWRF and GFDL bring this NNE over the next 126 hours into the Mexican state of Oaxaca. Not much change in the GFDL over the past few runs, but the NCEP Hurricane WRF (HWRF) trended east over a hundred miles between each of the 06z/12z and 12z/18z runs.

18z GFS and 12z ECMWF take a similar NW path to the 12z HWRF with some vorticity moving into the BoC in 126 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

What I find really odd is that the GFDL and HWRF move this NNE and have shifted right, while the GFS ensemble has shifted well W.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS has an ever stronger high

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have become a little better organized this evening. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next couple of days while this system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent