EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982015 07/11/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 49 53 55 58 53 50 48
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 49 53 55 58 53 50 48
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 35 40 45 50 54 57 61 63 63
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 10 10 1 5 11 13 12 11 12 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -1 0 0 3 0 0 -4 -3 2 1
SHEAR DIR 174 175 163 137 117 76 337 351 10 13 48 37 1
SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 28.4 27.9 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 167 165 164 161 160 159 148 140 138
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.7 -52.2 -53.1 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 6 8 6 7 6 5 4 5
700-500 MB RH 85 84 81 79 79 78 77 79 78 79 79 76 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 13 11 11 12 14 11 10 8
850 MB ENV VOR 58 49 40 37 30 -7 -8 -20 -11 -20 6 4 34
200 MB DIV 125 99 92 86 97 46 88 49 116 41 62 0 20
700-850 TADV 3 5 5 8 9 9 6 0 0 0 0 -3 0
LAND (KM) 445 405 368 376 390 389 354 376 403 416 513 535 538
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.5 15.6 15.9 15.9 16.4 17.6 18.1 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.7 98.9 99.9 100.9 103.2 105.1 105.9 106.3 107.4 109.6 110.5 110.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 11 10 11 12 8 3 4 9 9 3 1
HEAT CONTENT 72 68 61 51 40 47 48 46 43 35 21 14 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -1. 1. -2. -4. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 24. 28. 30. 33. 28. 25. 23.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/11/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 07/11/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2015071100, , BEST, 0, 117N, 965W, 25, 1006, DB

[Yellow Evan]

Guidance looks more north and closer to MX. ECMWF seems like an outlier for now.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined low
pressure system located about 400 miles southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for continued development, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves northwestward to west-northwestward. Interests along the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

WTPN21 PHNC 110200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 95.9W TO 16.1N 102.1W WITHIN THE
NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 96.5W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 95.9W, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 96.5W, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPROVED, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
RAGGED BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS GOOD, WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS AREA BECOMING, AT MINIMUM, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120200Z.//

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS is really interesting. Moves it NW to W to a loop then back to the W and then has it flying N OTS.



Peak.



0z ECMWF strong and WNW.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982015 07/11/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 52 65 65 64 67 67 67
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 52 65 65 64 67 67 67
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 38 41 46 50 54 57 58 57 54 51
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 7 10 8 8 12 10 6 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 2 3
SHEAR DIR 184 169 163 160 184 246 304 324 335 350 333 323 316
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.9 28.8 28.0 27.2 26.4 26.1 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 172 170 168 164 151 143 135 127 123 119
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 79 78 77 75 72 68 69 67 65 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 12 14 14 14 13 19 20 21 25 26 27
850 MB ENV VOR 47 39 36 32 18 -7 0 14 21 11 36 41 52
200 MB DIV 96 86 89 92 90 44 45 61 53 55 41 34 14
700-850 TADV 6 4 5 7 6 9 -2 1 -2 -2 -5 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 363 310 278 252 227 183 172 223 279 328 285 333 401
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 97.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 12 9 7 6 7 8 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 66 63 50 42 44 40 35 25 14 9 3 7 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. 9. 9. 11. 17. 18. 20.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 35. 35. 34. 37. 37. 38.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/11/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

TD at 8 AM PDT:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with a low pressure system located about 300 miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico have become better organized and a tropical
depression appears to be forming. If the current trend continues,
advisories will be initiated on this system later this morning.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 98.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system since watches or
warnings could be required.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of the newly-formed Tropical
Depression Five-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude
98.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the
next couple of days. On this forecast track, the core of the
cyclone is expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico.
However, a small deviation to the north of the track could bring
stronger winds to the coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a
tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression could produce areas of heavy rain along
the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to increase near
the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few
days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982015 07/11/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 56 64 63 67 67 69 73
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 56 64 63 67 67 69 73
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 44 46 47 48 49 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 6 6 9 13 9 9 6 7 5 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -4 -6 -4 -1 -1 0 -4 0
SHEAR DIR 164 163 164 184 236 286 312 331 338 335 14 37 322
SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.2 29.8 28.8 27.9 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 170 170 168 167 162 151 141 134 133 133 132
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 8 6 7 5 7 5 6 5
700-500 MB RH 82 78 79 78 78 77 78 73 72 73 73 72 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 13 16 20 20 24 24 26 28
850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 22 5 -8 -13 -4 21 16 30 30 54 66
200 MB DIV 74 61 72 82 69 64 50 85 45 63 47 42 13
700-850 TADV 4 7 5 4 8 4 0 1 -1 -2 -1 1 2
LAND (KM) 346 316 301 277 261 201 203 259 326 370 389 402 421
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 10 8 7 6 4 3 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 65 57 45 39 44 38 35 23 12 9 9 6 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 12. 17. 19. 20. 24.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 26. 34. 33. 37. 37. 39. 43.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/11/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

Corrected for AWIPS header.

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located a
few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico now meets the
criteria to be classified as a tropical depression, the fifth one of
the 2015 eastern North Pacific season. The initial intensity
estimate is set at 30 kt. The depression is producing a
considerable amount of deep convection mainly to the north of the
estimated low-level center with some of the outer rain bands
already affecting the coast of southern Mexico.

Warm water, high moisture, and decreasing shear should allow the
depression to steadily strengthen during the next several days. In
fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 50hance of
the depression strengthening 25 kt during the next 24 hours. On
the other hand, the GFDL/HWRF pair are not very aggressive. The
official intensity forecast prefers the SHIPS solution, and
lies at the high end of the guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 300/11, but this is fairly uncertain
due to the difficulty in locating the low-level center. A motion
toward the west-northwest to northwest at about 10 kt is predicted
for the next couple of days while the cyclone is steered by a large
subtropical ridge centered over the south-central United States. A
decrease in forward speed is expected by early next week when
the ridge weakens. Although there is some spread in the models,
they agree on this general trend and the official track forecast is
the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast keeps the core of
the cyclone offshore of Mexico, but a small deviation to the north
of this track could bring tropical storm conditions to the coast.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system since watches or warnings
could be required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 13.2N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.0N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 16.6N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 19.9N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS



12z GFS

[cycloneye]

SHIP goes to cat 2at 18z.

05E FIVE 150711 1800 13.4N 99.2W EPAC 30 1005

[Yellow Evan]

My real only concern with this system is upwelling if it sits too much.

Otherwise, here are the SHIPS otuput. Conditions quite favorable.


* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIVE EP052015 07/11/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 40 44 51 65 69 77 81 82 87 92
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 40 44 51 65 69 77 81 82 87 92
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 49 53 57 58 58 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 5 4 6 11 10 9 8 8 6 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -1 -3 -2 -8 0 1 -2 0 1
SHEAR DIR 149 134 168 199 205 283 314 345 351 349 343 308 352
SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.1 29.5 28.7 28.2 27.4 26.7 26.5 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 170 169 167 166 158 149 144 136 128 126 126
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 78 78 77 72 71 70 67 66 66 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 14 14 15 20 20 26 29 31 35 39
850 MB ENV VOR 33 23 5 0 1 -7 8 27 23 46 55 86 100
200 MB DIV 79 81 84 69 68 46 75 37 51 56 50 35 33
700-850 TADV 5 5 5 5 5 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 316 298 280 258 220 229 214 262 307 375 301 300 340
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.4 20.4
LONG(DEG W) 99.2 100.3 101.4 102.4 103.4 105.2 106.5 107.5 108.3 109.2 110.3 111.1 111.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 5 5 5 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 59 48 39 43 43 39 32 22 15 9 7 3 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 13. 13. 20. 26. 29. 34. 38.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 14. 21. 35. 39. 47. 51. 52. 57. 62.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 FIVE 07/11/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 99.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression appears to be gradually
organizing. Visible satellite images show banding features
increasing on the east side of the circulation and some of the outer
bands are affecting the southern coast of Mexico. The initial wind
speed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the satellite
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. It should be
noted that recent ASCAT passes showed slightly higher winds, but
those appear to be partly associated with a Tehuantepec gap wind
event.

The depression is expected to strengthen during the next several
days while it remains over warm water and in atmosphere of low shear
and high moisture. The GFS and ECMWF models show the system
substantially deepening during the next several days, and the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a 63 percent chance of the system
strengthening by 25 kt during the next 24 hours. Conversely, the
GFDL and HWRF models continue to predict only slight strengthening.
The official forecast is a little higher than the previous one and
lies at the high end of the model guidance, following the SHIPS
model.

The initial motion estimate is 300/9. A continued
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same speed
is expected during the next couple of days while the system is
steered by a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States.
After that time, a slower west-northwestward motion is forecast when
the ridge weakens. Little change was made to the previous forecast
and it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although
the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small
deviation to the north of the projected track could require the
issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the
southwestern coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.7N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 14.5N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 16.8N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 19.7N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 20.0N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

Think 85 knts is way too conservative. 100 knts sounds better.

[Yellow Evan]

12z/18z model cycle

[cycloneye]

I thought this would develop more faster but is still a TD.

EP, 05, 2015071200, , BEST, 0, 136N, 997W, 30, 1005, TD

[cycloneye]

SHIP at 00z goes up to cat 3.

[Yellow Evan]

I thought this would develop more faster but is still a TD.

EP, 05, 2015071200, , BEST, 0, 136N, 997W, 30, 1005, TD

It's large and still needs to consolidate some.