EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

Do not be surprised if Hurricane Watches are required out of this

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Do not be surprised if Hurricane Watches are required out of this

Looks like you're right when you said this very well may be the greater USA threat vs. Erika.

[Alyono]

Do not be surprised if Hurricane Watches are required out of this

Looks like you're right when you said this very well may be the greater USA threat vs. Erika.

Erika had the potential to be bigger, had it moved north of Hispañiola and really exploded. This one was always a sure fire significant threat or a cat 1 or a cat 2 hurricane. Not going to get a 4 or a 5 out of this, but this was always a guaranteed solid cane threat

[Yellow Evan]

Do not be surprised if Hurricane Watches are required out of this

Looks like you're right when you said this very well may be the greater USA threat vs. Erika.

I thought Erika could have been a major Us threat, but then the ATL started being uhh the ATL.

Anyhow, don't see any need for hurricane watches yet, but any major shift south, sure.

[Alyono]

pressure appears to be 974mb

[Kingarabian]

Do not be surprised if Hurricane Watches are required out of this

Looks like you're right when you said this very well may be the greater USA threat vs. Erika.

I thought Erika could have been a major Us threat, but then the ATL started being uhh the ATL.

Anyhow, don't see any need for hurricane watches yet, but any major shift south, sure.

Euro is running. So we'll see.

[Yellow Evan]

0z UKMET

[Alyono]

EC also misses north

[Kingarabian]

EC also misses north

How close is it @ 72 hours?

Edit: Yup shifted more north.

[Alyono]

looks like the closest approach is about 200 miles away. It's a decent north shift

[Kingarabian]

looks like the closest approach is about 200 miles away. It's a decent north shift

The CPHC will probably keep the track the same since they're feeling a southern track.

[Kingarabian]

Alyono, looks like it's trending back to a CCC?

[Extratropical94]

12E IGNACIO 150829 0600 15.6N 145.7W EPAC 80 974

[Kingarabian]

No CCC; minimal banding or it almost looks annular.

[Extratropical94]

HURRICANE IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2015

...IGNACIO TRACKING NORTHWEST AND DRAWING CLOSER TO HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 146.0W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

Ignacio showed some improvement during the RECON mission. The second pass showed an improving radar structure of the eye. First pass was a bit sloppy and open to the S. Banding was wrapping around the Southern quadrant during the second center pass.

[Kingarabian]

Here we go:

Code: Select all

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  29 AUG 2015    Time :   080000 UTC
      Lat :   15:25:51 N     Lon :  145:50:32 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.8 / 973.8mb/ 84.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.8     5.8     5.8


[Kingarabian]

WTPA43 PHFO 290857
TCDCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2015

DATA COLLECTED BY A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WERE UTILIZED IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE...CENTRAL
PRESSURE...CENTER POSITION AND WIND RADII FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRMED THAT THE ONGOING SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE REASONABLY ACCURATE...
AS MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 84 KT AND MAX SFMR WINDS NEAR 77 KT
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. A WARM SPOT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS AIDED IN
SUBSEQUENT CENTER FIXING AFTER THE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE HURRICANE
AROUND 0530Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
IS SCHEDULED IN TIME FOR THE 1800Z ADVISORY CYCLE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/08 KT...WITH
THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE WOBBLING AROUND ON A TRAJECTORY THAT LIES VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE...WITH IGNACIO FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST TOWARD
A BREAK IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED TO THE DISTANT
NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
OFFERS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGE...WITH THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST STILL RIDING THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...ALTHOUGH THE DAY 5 GFS FORECAST POSITION WAS RIGHT ON TOP
OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE UPDATED FORECAST
REPRESENTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS WELL AS UPPER-AIR AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES...
INDICATE THAT IGNACIO IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK SHEAR...IN A COL BETWEEN
RIDGES ALOFT CENTERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND TO THE WEST.
LATEST INFRARED IMAGES DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE SHORT-TERM...SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SHEAR LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS IVCN...AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...IN ANTICIPATING STRENGTHENING.
AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN UNDERLYING WATER TEMPERATURES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
FORECAST TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH DAY
5.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL WIND
RADII...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGES BEING AN EXPANSION OF THE RADII IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 15.7N 146.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 16.3N 147.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.3N 148.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 18.2N 149.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 19.1N 151.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 21.2N 153.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 23.5N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 25.5N 159.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 15:29:28 N Lon : 146:00:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 966.1mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.9 6.1