ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 040242
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 25 20151004
023330 2859N 06748W 6967 03074 9951 +098 +087 155058 058 040 002 00
023400 2857N 06750W 6967 03068 9948 +100 +075 154059 060 040 002 00
023430 2856N 06752W 6966 03064 9942 +100 +074 153060 060 038 003 00
023500 2855N 06753W 6966 03067 9942 +096 +094 152062 063 041 004 01
023530 2854N 06754W 6967 03063 9944 +102 //// 153065 066 041 004 05
023600 2853N 06755W 6966 03061 9935 +100 //// 153063 064 043 006 05
023630 2852N 06757W 6967 03059 9937 +099 +099 154065 065 044 012 03
023700 2851N 06758W 6969 03052 9938 +100 +100 153065 066 044 017 00
023730 2849N 06759W 6967 03050 9935 +099 +099 151066 066 045 017 00
023800 2848N 06800W 6970 03046 9929 +101 +101 150068 070 045 014 03
023830 2847N 06802W 6968 03039 9930 +097 +097 150070 071 047 012 03
023900 2846N 06803W 6967 03042 9923 +094 +094 146071 071 051 008 00
023930 2845N 06804W 6965 03043 9924 +095 +095 147070 071 050 008 03
024000 2844N 06805W 6969 03030 9926 +100 +100 149072 074 052 009 03
024030 2843N 06807W 6967 03029 9911 +101 +101 148076 076 052 008 03
024100 2842N 06808W 6966 03028 9903 +101 +101 147075 075 054 007 03
024130 2841N 06809W 6967 03018 9885 +105 +094 147070 074 055 006 03
024200 2840N 06811W 6962 03023 9887 +101 +094 143071 072 055 004 00
024230 2838N 06812W 6969 03013 9882 +100 +095 142072 072 056 006 00
024300 2837N 06813W 6969 03010 9881 +098 +097 143076 077 056 006 03

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 115 knots (~ 132.3 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 118 knots (~ 135.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 84 knots (~ 96.7 mph)

URNT15 KNHC 040252
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 26 20151004
024330 2836N 06814W 6967 03006 9897 +092 +092 143076 078 055 022 03
024400 2835N 06816W 6963 03005 9899 +103 +103 147079 083 058 015 03
024430 2834N 06817W 6961 02999 9882 +108 +108 151083 084 062 009 03
024500 2833N 06818W 6974 02978 9862 +112 +112 155080 083 062 010 03
024530 2832N 06819W 6970 02973 9850 +114 +114 154086 090 065 010 03
024600 2831N 06820W 6970 02966 9845 +114 +114 156086 090 067 012 00
024630 2830N 06822W 6972 02955 9832 +115 +115 150094 097 071 011 00
024700 2829N 06823W 6969 02950 9822 +115 +115 152090 097 072 013 03
024730 2828N 06824W 6960 02942 9810 +114 +114 148089 094 076 025 03
024800 2827N 06825W 6971 02919 9796 +117 +117 152097 099 078 020 00
024830 2826N 06826W 6968 02906 9777 +118 +118 158105 107 080 019 00
024900 2825N 06827W 6969 02891 9761 +120 +120 162106 107 082 022 00
024930 2824N 06828W 6973 02873 9747 +119 //// 161112 114 083 024 05
025000 2824N 06830W 6957 02875 9727 +121 //// 161111 113 081 034 01
025030 2823N 06831W 6974 02843 9710 +125 +125 164113 116 082 042 00
025100 2823N 06833W 6955 02854 9693 +126 +126 164115 118 084 041 00
025130 2822N 06834W 6963 02831 9674 +128 +128 162102 111 084 041 03
025200 2822N 06836W 6970 02814 9656 +130 +130 154087 095 083 043 00
025230 2821N 06838W 6968 02800 9639 +132 +132 149082 085 080 045 03
025300 2820N 06840W 6971 02778 9605 +135 //// 138070 075 069 045 05
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 943.4 mb

URNT15 KNHC 040302
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 27 20151004
025330 2819N 06841W 6971 02753 9553 +145 +141 133077 079 059 044 03
025400 2818N 06843W 6976 02720 9504 +165 +138 130078 081 081 007 00
025430 2817N 06844W 6951 02730 9483 +162 +145 122057 075 081 006 03
025500 2815N 06846W 6966 02704 9466 +165 +148 117046 051 059 003 03
025530 2814N 06847W 6963 02687 9442 +174 +138 102032 043 044 001 00
025600 2812N 06847W 6969 02676 9434 +178 +132 124012 025 031 001 00
025630 2810N 06847W 6967 02678 9445 +165 +136 261009 013 032 002 00
025700 2808N 06848W 6970 02679 9460 +153 +140 255019 021 038 002 03
025730 2807N 06848W 6967 02683 //// +148 //// 256021 022 033 002 01
025800 2806N 06850W 6961 02700 9456 +170 +131 285031 037 033 002 00
025830 2804N 06851W 6971 02699 9450 +192 +120 294048 053 038 001 00
025900 2803N 06852W 6968 02714 9451 +205 +112 301057 060 050 002 00
025930 2802N 06854W 6971 02725 9446 +231 +089 306065 068 056 001 00
030000 2801N 06855W 6954 02766 9470 +225 +091 310070 072 058 001 00
030030 2800N 06856W 6969 02769 9503 +215 +099 304071 073 060 001 00
030100 2759N 06858W 6982 02774 9531 +206 +107 296078 081 069 002 00
030130 2758N 06859W 6977 02799 9535 +223 +085 292084 088 073 002 03
030200 2757N 06900W 6940 02858 9559 +208 +089 299084 088 072 002 00
030230 2756N 06901W 6962 02855 9591 +207 +065 304098 102 070 001 00
030300 2755N 06902W 6963 02870 9613 +203 +052 294096 101 065 001 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[WPBWeather]

Has to reach 157 mph now with new scale.

To my knowledge, even with the old Saffir-Simpson scale, 155 mph was the upper end of Cat 4, not Cat 5.

Yup, buddy, you are correct. Used to be greater or equal to 156. Now greater or equal to 157. So 155 mph isn't, and was never, a cat 5.

Ozone, I think you are off base a little with this. J was at LEAST 155. Maybe more. Your splitting of hairs for 2 mph is really not significant in the scheme of things.

[WeatherGuesser]

ALL of the posted speeds are estimates or generalizations based on samples and observations. There is no certified speedometer or anemometer out there. The is no noticeable difference in effect between 10 and 12 miles per hour or between 155 and 157 miles per hour. If a building is going to be leveled in 157 MPH winds, it probably won't survive 155 MPH winds.

Personally, I think they should round the scale off in 10s (150 or 160) and use MPH only.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

About Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

And on that page a link to how the scale was changed:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws_2012rev.pdf

It used to be for a category 5:

156 mph or higher
136 kt or higher
250 km/h or higher

Now:

157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher

And you can see that file for other changes.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Hurricane warning issued for Bermuda.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 040312
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 28 20151004
030330 2754N 06903W 6961 02884 9645 +182 +062 294095 097 067 001 00
030400 2754N 06903W 6961 02884 9655 +186 +050 295096 098 069 001 00
030430 2752N 06906W 6959 02908 9676 +178 +041 292098 099 069 001 00
030500 2751N 06907W 6970 02902 9698 +167 +052 291095 097 069 001 00
030530 2750N 06908W 6972 02912 9720 +156 +057 289094 095 070 001 00
030600 2749N 06909W 6967 02924 9733 +150 +061 287092 094 068 000 00
030630 2748N 06910W 6966 02932 9748 +143 +063 288088 090 067 002 00
030700 2747N 06911W 6961 02945 9765 +132 +069 286085 087 064 003 00
030730 2746N 06912W 6974 02941 9783 +127 +075 286083 084 063 002 00
030800 2745N 06913W 6966 02955 9798 +118 +085 285081 082 063 001 00
030830 2744N 06914W 6964 02966 9809 +114 +091 284077 080 062 002 00
030900 2743N 06915W 6967 02969 9818 +113 +093 284075 076 060 001 00
030930 2742N 06917W 6967 02975 9831 +107 +098 286072 074 057 001 00
031000 2741N 06918W 6970 02981 9830 +114 +092 284072 073 055 001 00
031030 2741N 06919W 6967 02985 9837 +112 +094 283070 073 053 002 00
031100 2740N 06920W 6966 02991 //// +099 //// 285067 070 050 003 01
031130 2739N 06921W 6963 03004 //// +094 //// 285068 071 050 004 01
031200 2739N 06921W 6963 03004 9877 +100 //// 287070 071 049 004 01
031230 2737N 06923W 6967 03006 //// +096 //// 289070 071 047 003 01
031300 2736N 06925W 6966 03010 //// +100 //// 284067 069 044 003 01
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Hurricane force wind field has expanded from 45 miles to 70 miles.

[ozonepete]

Yup, buddy, you are correct. Used to be greater or equal to 156. Now greater or equal to 157. So 155 mph isn't, and was never, a cat 5.

Ozone, I think you are off base a little with this. J was at LEAST 155. Maybe more. Your splitting of hairs for 2 mph is really not significant in the scheme of things.

WPB, it's not splitting of hairs. It's called science, which uses exact numbers. For example, the freezing point of water is exactly 32F, not about, or roughly, 32F. This applies to scales of measured amounts as well. Otherwise you have confusion and vagueness which is not good in science. So when the NHC declares that the maximum winds in a hurricane were 156 mph, it is forever in the record books as a category 4, with no asterisk saying that it almost made category 5. If the winds were 157 mph, then it is forever in the record books as a category 5. If the measurements for today for Joaquin stand firm, then forever after this, when you google the list of category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic, you will not see Joaquin 2005 with an asterisk saying it was almost one. It just won't ever be on the list. That's how it works. So I am not, as you said, off base. I am being exact, as scientists insist on being.

If you want to say that there is little difference between 155 mph and 157 mph that's fine, but that's obvious and everyone knows that.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Jam151]

Ozone, I think you are off base a little with this. J was at LEAST 155. Maybe more. Your splitting of hairs for 2 mph is really not significant in the scheme of things.

No, it was not. There is no data to suggest Joaquin's sustained winds exceeded 155mph. Sometimes hurricanes peak at 155mph (Georges, Floyd, Lenny, Gustav, Igor, to name a few). They were not classified as category 5s, because 155mph is not, and never was, category-5 level.

[WPBWeather]

Yup, buddy, you are correct. Used to be greater or equal to 156. Now greater or equal to 157. So 155 mph isn't, and was never, a cat 5.

Ozone, I think you are off base a little with this. J was at LEAST 155. Maybe more. Your splitting of hairs for 2 mph is really not significant in the scheme of things.

WPB, it's not splitting of hairs. It's called science, which uses exact numbers. For example, the freezing point of water is exactly 32F, not about, or roughly, 32F. This applies to scales of measured amounts as well. Otherwise you have confusion and vagueness which is not good in science. So when the NHC declares that the maximum winds in a hurricane were 156 mph, it is forever in the record books as a category 4, with no asterisk saying that it almost made category 5. If the winds were 157 mph, then it is forever in the record books as a category 5. If the measurements for today for Joaquin stand firm, then forever after this, when you google the list of category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic, you will not see Joaquin 2005 with an asterisk saying it was almost one. It just won't ever be on the list. That's how it works. So I am not, as you said, off base. I am being exact, as scientists insist on being.

Ok, I will bow to your points. However, if it turns out on reanalysis that it reached 157+ mph, I will call you.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 040322
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 29 20151004
031330 2735N 06926W 6971 03008 //// +102 //// 283066 067 044 004 01
031400 2734N 06927W 6967 03019 //// +105 //// 285065 067 043 002 01
031430 2732N 06928W 6968 03021 //// +105 //// 285062 063 043 001 01
031500 2731N 06929W 6967 03025 //// +107 //// 287061 063 042 001 05
031530 2730N 06931W 6968 03026 //// +106 //// 286061 063 040 003 01
031600 2729N 06932W 6966 03032 9887 +111 +100 288059 061 040 001 00
031630 2728N 06933W 6970 03031 9889 +111 +099 291058 059 041 002 00
031700 2727N 06934W 6969 03036 9895 +110 +100 288056 057 042 002 00
031730 2726N 06935W 6969 03036 9899 +109 +097 288054 055 042 002 00
031800 2725N 06937W 6966 03042 9906 +105 +098 290056 057 040 003 00
031830 2724N 06938W 6967 03045 9907 +107 +091 289055 056 041 002 00
031900 2724N 06938W 6967 03045 9913 +107 +082 289055 056 039 001 00
031930 2722N 06940W 6966 03052 9918 +101 +090 291056 057 039 002 00
032000 2721N 06942W 6960 03060 //// +099 //// 291053 055 039 003 05
032030 2720N 06943W 6970 03048 //// +098 //// 291054 055 037 002 01
032100 2719N 06944W 6969 03052 9933 +100 +100 292051 053 037 003 01
032130 2717N 06945W 6967 03059 9927 +104 +092 293049 051 038 002 00
032200 2716N 06947W 6967 03058 9923 +111 +087 285048 049 036 001 00
032230 2715N 06948W 6967 03061 9931 +105 +087 285049 049 036 001 00
032300 2714N 06949W 6969 03062 9938 +104 +083 288050 050 036 000 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Previous vortex had no eye description. Going back to the last vortex from the last mission which was at 10:51am Saturday morning, the eye was closed and circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles. Now it is over twice the diameter, 48 nautical miles, still circular, and open in the SW.

947mb with 25 knots of surface wind.



URNT12 KNHC 040317
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 04/02:56:10Z
B. 28 deg 12 min N
068 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2639 m
D. 84 kt
E. 053 deg 16 nm
F. 163 deg 118 kt
G. 053 deg 16 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 11 C / 3047 m
J. 19 C / 3045 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C48
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 1411A JOAQUIN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 118 KT 053 / 16 NM 02:51:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 25 KT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 216 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 3:17Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 2:56:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°12'N 68°47'W (28.2N 68.7833W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,639m (8,658ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 84kts (~ 96.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 163° at 118kts (From the SSE at ~ 135.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (53°) from the flight level center at 2:51:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 25kts (From the S at 29mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (216°) from the flight level center

[WeatherGuesser]

WPB, it's not splitting of hairs. It's called science, which uses exact numbers. For example, the freezing point of water is exactly 32F, not about, or roughly, 32F. This applies to scales of measured amounts as well. Otherwise you have confusion and vagueness which is not good in science. So when the NHC declares that the maximum winds in a hurricane were 156 mph, ...

Freezing and boiling points of items are expressed as 'exact' because they have been measured with calibrated instruments and verified repeatedly.

Wind speeds are estimates. If they sample and 'declare' a speed in this or any system at 156, it is very likely that speed was somewhere between 150 and 160 and no one will ever be able to state exactly. They have to pick a number for the documents.