WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030911
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
800 PM CHST SUN MAY 3 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W DRIFTING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND AND NGULU
IN YAP STATE.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THESE LOCATIONS WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.5N 141.3E

ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF KOROR
ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.3 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TAKING 06W NEAR YAP AS A TROPICAL
STORM ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 AM MONDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[HurricaneTracker2031]

TD 06W try to get better organized and may have a chance to become a well organized Typhoon this week. The convection is bursting near the center and will begin to wrap around that. It is strengthening and we will see what the future brings.



Synopsis for TD 06W: http://goo.gl/6DChTS


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[tdp]

[cycloneye]

No upgrade yet by JMA.Look at the jog it took to the north for a few hours.

TD
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 3 May 2015
<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°30'(8.5°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25'(9.4°)
E139°40'(139.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC warning at 15:00 UTC has peak intensity up to 115kts.

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT PGTW FIX
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T=2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD
06W IS MOVING SLOWLY POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH. THE LLCC LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE UPCOMING 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER, THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH INDUCING THE RIDGE WEAKNESS WILL MOVE EASTWARD,
ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REBUILD AND STEER TD 06W MORE
RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE,
ENABLING TD 06W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. NUMERIC MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK DIRECTION, BUT LESS AGREEMENT
REGARDING TRACK SPEED DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE OBSERVED
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE, THE NEAR-TERM JTWC FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 06W WILL TRACK STEADILY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
INFLUENCES REMAIN FAVORABLE. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE EXTENDED TERM,
LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC 96 AND 120 HOUR FORECAST
POSITIONS.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

The latest rapid scat shows that this is conclusively a TS

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS NOUL.

TS 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 19:00 UTC, 3 May 2015
<Analyses at 03/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°25'(9.4°)
E140°40'(140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°30'(9.5°)
E139°35'(139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°40'(9.7°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E136°20'(136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

[euro6208]

06W SIX 150503 1800 9.6N 140.7E WPAC 35 996

Upgraded to the 6th TS of the season...

[euro6208]

JMA weakens this significantly as it makes landfall over Luzon



CMC through Yap and Luzon





EURO barely develops this...



In constrast, GFS continues to show steady deepening right through Yap



Peak

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM EAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A COMPACT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 031644Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T2.0-2.5. TS 06W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER A RIDGE AXIS,
WITH LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POINT SOURCE JUST
TO THE EAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ROBUST OUTFLOW
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE RADIAL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A
FAVORABLE 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE WEAKENED STR TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY
REBUILDS. AFTER TAU 36, FORWARD MOTION SHOULD INCREASE AND RESUME A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, ENABLING NOUL TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SPREAD, WHICH VARIES BASED ON STRENGTH OF THE STR DEPICTED IN EACH
OF THE MODELS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE OBSERVED WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE, THE NEAR-TERM JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 06W WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES
REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE CTCX, GFDL, AND HWRF MESOCALE MODELS ALL TAKE
THE SYSTEM OVER 100 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN INCREASINGLY SPREAD AS DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF THE STR RESULTS IN EITHER A STRAIGHT-RUNNING OR A
RECURVING TRACK. BASED ON THIS DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC 96 AND 120 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS IS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 MAY 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 9:40:58 N Lon : 140:31:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1004.1mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 3.1 3.2

Center Temp : -68.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.5 degrees

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 032102
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOUL (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
700 AM CHST MON MAY 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM NOUL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
AS OF 700 AM...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAIS
AND ULITHI.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND AND NGULU
IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 140.5E

VERY CLOSE TO FAIS
ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 165 MILES EAST OF YAP
ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOUL WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.5 DEGREES EAST. NOUL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. NOUL IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL TAKE TROPICAL STORM NOUL BETWEEN
ULITHI AND YAP ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
NOUL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON ON TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 PM.

$$

STANKO

[Alyono]

EC still has a significant PI impact

MU is probably, as usual, recurving a WPAC typhoon too soon.

[cycloneye]

Nice pass.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe it may be alarming, but I think this could be the Philippines' worst May storm, and which means a big year of storm impacts for the country.

[dexterlabio]

I know it's already May, but there is still a good chance that Noul will pull off a Maysak before hitting elsewhere in PI, isn't it?

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 24 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 040532Z
PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 040225Z AMSR2 PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. TS 06W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOWER OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. TS 04W LIES EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH. TRACK SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SLOW THROUGH TAU 36
AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TS
06W AFTER TAU 36 AND ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM ALONG A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND MODERATELY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. NUMERIC MODELS GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH ALL GUIDANCE DEPICTING A SLOW
WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD YAP. THEREAFTER, DIVERGENCE AMONG SOLUTIONS
INCREASES, WITH THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING FARTHER POLEWARD THAN THE MAIN GROUPING AND GFDN DEPICTING A
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING EQUATORWARD OF THE MAIN GROUPING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AMONG THE
PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, SUGGESTING THAT A DIP NOTED LAST CYCLE IS NOT INDICATIVE
OF A DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL FORECASTS. MODEL TRACK FORECAST TRENDS
OBSERVED IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE ALSO
PRESENT IN THE EXTENDED TERM - GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD WHILE GFDN CARRIES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
HOWEVER, THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY GROUPED AROUND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH FALLS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
GIVEN THE EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REORIENTATION OF
THE STEERING RIDGE IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED TERM AND MODEL
DISAGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040918
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOUL (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
800 PM CHST MON MAY 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NOUL SLOWLY PASSING SOUTH OF ULITHI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND...AND A
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
MORNING. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 139.8E

ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF YAP
ABOUT 405 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 4 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.8 DEGREES
EAST. NOUL IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL
TAKE NOUL JUST SOUTH OF ULITHI THIS EVENING AND NORTH OF YAP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM NOUL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 041110
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NOUL (06W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST MON MAY 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NOUL PASSING JUST SOUTH OF ULITHI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON YAP...NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS ISLANDS OF YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND...AND A
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NGULU HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 139.8E

ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF YAP
ABOUT 405 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 4 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NOUL IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH...AND IS
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF ULITHI. NOUL IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST
AND PASS NORTH OF YAP AS A TYPHOON TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...YAP...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...LIKELY
BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND THAT
YOUR VEHICLES HAVE PLENTY OF FUEL. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICE. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN
60 AND 70 MPH BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 11 FEET TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 11 TO 14 FEET
TUESDAY MORNING. SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 17 FEET TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IS
LIKELY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOCAL FLOODING IS LIKELY.

...NGULU...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...BUT AVOID VENTURING NEAR
REEFS WHERE HAZARDOUS SURF MAY BE OCCURRING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND SURF SUBSIDE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO WEST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS TUESDAY...PEAKING AS HIGH AS 10
FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...ULITHI AND FAIS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE
AND THE ALL-CLEAR IS GIVEN. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT
ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING EAST WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE
HOURS AT FAIS....THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT ULITHI...DAMAGING EAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO TUESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF WILL PEAK AROUND 14 FEET TONIGHT AT FAIS...AND
BETWEEN 14 AND 16 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AT ULITHI. MINOR COASTAL
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 300 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 MAY 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 9:48:00 N Lon : 139:39:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 998.8mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -65.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.1 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now stronger. Wasn't able to track this, and I am very amazed. Had a vacay

06W NOUL 150504 1200 9.7N 139.7E WPAC 45 989

TS 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 4 May 2015

<Analyses at 04/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°30'(9.5°)
E139°35'(139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)