EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

SHIP at 00z goes up to cat 3.

And here is the output

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIVE EP052015 07/12/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 59 70 76 84 87 91 98 99
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 59 70 76 84 87 91 98 99
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 45 49 53 56 58 60 61 64
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 3 1 1 4 12 17 12 10 10 3 2 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -10 -3 -3 -5 -4 -5 -4
SHEAR DIR 89 90 130 279 307 305 326 320 337 316 255 166 80
SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 166 170 170 168 166 164 159 152 146 140 132 130 131
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 7 5 6
700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 81 79 78 73 72 74 72 70 68 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 17 16 20 24 26 31 35 36 42 43
850 MB ENV VOR 19 4 0 -1 -6 -6 19 23 49 41 75 88 121
200 MB DIV 107 84 61 56 61 86 97 74 69 48 58 46 32
700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0
LAND (KM) 317 298 279 278 252 255 245 285 337 393 355 359 411
LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.7 19.8 19.6
LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.7 101.6 102.7 103.7 105.5 106.5 107.4 108.3 109.2 110.1 111.0 111.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 11 8 6 5 5 5 5 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 54 44 39 43 43 41 35 26 18 11 8 5 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 12. 17. 21. 28. 33. 37. 44. 44.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 29. 40. 46. 54. 57. 61. 68. 69.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 FIVE 07/12/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

Looks to be near TS status. Starting to take off nicely.

[Yellow Evan]

E, SAB, GS, VIM, 3, 1515 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=1.5 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=1.5 FTBO DT


EP, 05, 201507112345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1380N, 9920W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AL, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2015 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 13:40:40 N Lon : 99:48:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1009.4mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : -40.4C Cloud Region Temp : -56.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

Tropical Depression Five-E is gradually becoming better organized.
A broad convective band is present in the northeastern semicircle,
with the coldest cloud tops currently in a cluster to the north of
the center. Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from TAFB and
25 kt from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cirrus
outflow is good in all directions except the southeast.

The initial motion is 300/8. The consensus of the track guidance
is that the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward
parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or so,
steered by a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and the southern
United States. The guidance becomes divergent after that time due
to the uncertainty in the evolution of a deep-layer trough over the
northeastern Pacific and the western United States. The GFS and
ECMWF suggest that a ridge will build westward from Mexico between
the cyclone and the trough, and they thus forecast the depression
to turn westward. The UKMET, GFDL, and GFDN forecast the trough to
prevent the ridge from building, and thus show a northwestward
motion. The new track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF scenario in
showing a westward turn, and it lies a little to the south of the
previous track.

The depression is expected to remain in a moist environment and over
warm sea surface temperatures for the next several days. The
vertical wind shear is currently light, and the environment is
favorable for rapid intensification during the next 24-36 hours as
shown by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. However, the
cyclone currently lacks a well-defined inner core, and the GFS and
ECMWF suggest that a period of moderate northerly shear may affect
the cyclone around 48 hours. These factors could slow or stop any
rapid intensification. Overall, the intensity guidance is stronger
than that of the previous advisory, with the SHIPS model
forecasting an intensity near 100 kt by 120 hours. The intensity
forecast calls for the same steady strengthening through 48 hours as
the previous forecast, then shows slightly higher intensities for
72-120 hours. The forecast is in best agreement with the intensity
consensus through 72 hours, and is near the SHIPS model after that.

Although the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a
small deviation to the north of the projected track could require
the issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 13.8N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 14.6N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.6N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 2015071200, , BEST, 0, 138N, 997W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 100, 0, 80, 1009, 180, 60, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 12, NEQ, 180, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
EP, 05, 2015071206, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1005W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 50, 90, 1009, 180, 55, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOLORES, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DOLORES EP052015 07/12/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 55 60 74 83 88 92 93 90 94 91
V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 55 60 74 83 88 92 93 90 94 91
V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 52 55 60 64 66 67 66 65 64 63
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 6 5 6 11 13 14 13 9 6 5 3 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -6 -5 -3 -3 -3 -4 1 -4
SHEAR DIR 246 261 262 288 295 306 321 325 335 302 305 49 53
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.2 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.7 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 169 166 167 164 155 147 141 135 129 129 132
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 5
700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 81 79 74 71 73 73 72 73 73 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 17 19 20 26 30 33 38 41 39 43 42
850 MB ENV VOR 4 -3 -3 -1 -4 11 21 33 45 53 80 88 99
200 MB DIV 77 60 66 79 79 96 70 86 66 75 57 57 35
700-850 TADV -2 2 1 0 -1 2 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 281 262 252 225 226 235 271 335 364 369 326 357 454
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.0 19.6
LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.6 102.6 103.6 104.5 105.7 107.1 108.2 108.9 109.6 110.5 111.5 112.6
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 8 7 7 5 4 5 4 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 46 40 45 43 40 39 29 20 13 9 7 3 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 7. 17. 23. 28. 35. 39. 38. 43. 41.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 34. 43. 48. 52. 53. 50. 54. 51.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 34% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

Upwelling is my only real concern.

[Yellow Evan]

ASCAT at 43 knts. I'd go 45 knts.


EP, 05, 201507120428, 31, ASCT, CIR, , 1410N, 10030W, , 1, 43, 3, , 3, , 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 50, 90, , , , , 3, , , , NHC, SRS, , , , , , , , , ASCT, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , , , , 3, pbo bullseye pass/ 43 kt vctr ne quad/svrl 40-kt vct

[Kingarabian]

GFS loves California landfalls.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS peak

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF

[Yellow Evan]

Looks ready to bomb out. May be nearing 50-55 knts face value, but winds lag, so 45 is good.

Has that look.



CMISS ADt has reached constraints.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2015 Time : 071500 UTC
Lat : 14:25:42 N Lon : 100:46:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1002.1mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.9 4.1

Center Temp : -67.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
400 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

Satellite data indicate that a CDO pattern is developing over the
low-level center of the tropical cyclone located south of Acapulco,
Mexico. A 0428 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated 40-43 kt
winds in the northern semicircle and the ship Seoul Express, call
sign DHBN, which has been traversing the northeastern quadrant,
reported 35-kt and 33-kt winds at 0300 UTC and 0600 UTC,
respectively. Based on these data, the system has been upgraded to
Tropical Storm Dolores.

The initial motion is 300/10 kt. There is no significant change to
the previous forecast track or reasoning. With the exception of the
GFDL model, which has a known right-bias near Mexico, the remainder
of the NHC model guidance is now tightly clustered about a general
west-northwestward motion for the next five days as a strong ridge
to the north of Dolores remains entrenched across the U.S. southern
Plains and northern Mexico. By day 3 and beyond, a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected as the western portion of the ridge
weakens. The official forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Dolores is expected to remain in a very favorable environment for
significant strengthening to occur, especially with large
upper-level lows located to the northwest and to the east of the
cyclone helping to evacuate mass from the system. However, UW-CIMMS
shear analyses indicate that southwesterly mid-level shear has been
undercutting the otherwise favorable upper-level outflow pattern,
which has resulted in most of the deep convection remaining in the
northern semicircle of Dolores. This pattern is expected to continue
for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a more favorable outflow
regime and lower shear. As a result, at least steady intensification
is forecast throughout the 5-day period, with Dolores expected to
become a major hurricane by 120 h. The official intensity forecast
is a little above the previous advisory forecast, and is similar to
the intensity consensus model ICON through 96 hours and a little
above ICON at 120 hours.

Although the current track forecast keeps the center of Dolores and
the core of strongest winds offshore of southern Mexico, only a
small deviation to the north of the projected track and-or an
expansion of the 34-kt wind field would require the issuance of
tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. At the present time, however, the
wind flow is expected to be from an easterly direction along the
mountainous coastal areas of Mexico, which should act to keep the
current tropical-storm-force wind field just offshore.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.6N 101.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.4N 102.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 17.0N 105.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 18.8N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 19.5N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Worries me that it's close to Mexico.

But it does have that look.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 2015071206, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1005W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 50, 90, 1009, 180, 55, 50, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOLORES, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 0, 0, 90, genesis-num, 010,
EP, 05, 2015071212, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1013W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 50, 90, 1009, 160, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOLORES, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

Why are they revising down?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

There has been no appreciable change to the organization of
Dolores' cloud pattern during the past several hours. Satellite
data show the cyclone maintaining a large mass of cold-topped
convection, primarily in a band over the northeastern semicircle of
the circulation. Microwave data and visible satellite imagery
suggest that the low-level center is located near a new convective
burst, perhaps the beginning of a central dense overcast. Dvorak
classifications were T2.5 and T3.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively,
at 1200 UTC. A blend of these satellite intensity estimates is used
to keep the intensity at 40 kt.

The initial motion is between west-northwest and northwest or
305/09. A mid-level anticyclone over the south-central United
States should steer Dolores on a generally west-northwestward
heading for the next 5 days, with some deceleration in forward speed
by 48 hours. Global models are in excellent agreement on this
scenario, and the spread of the model guidance is generally low
through 72 hours, except for the GFDL model that takes Dolores
toward the Baja California peninsula. After 72 hours, the model
solutions diverge somewhat, with the GFS taking Dolores farther
north due to a weaker subtropical ridge and the ECMWF showing the
cyclone farther west due to a stronger ridge and a weaker trough off
of the U.S. West coast. The NHC forecast track is along or just to
the left of the previous forecast, closely following the multi-model
consensus minus the GFDL solution.

Dolores seems poised to strengthen. Atmospheric and oceanic
thermodynamic variables are quite conducive for intensification
through about 96 hours. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 70
percent chance of a 25-kt increase by this time tomorrow. However,
the SHIPS model does indicate some light westerly or northwesterly
shear in 24-48 hours, but it would appear that the shear is not
enough to impede intensification. Beyond 96 hours, water
temperatures are expected to be marginally warm and Dolores should
have already begun to ingest somewhat drier and more stable air,
which should promote weakening. The intensity at the end of the
forecast period is very much dependent on how much latitude Dolores
gains by that time. Like previous forecasts, the current one is
near or above the multi-model consensus similar to SHIPS
model guidance.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the southwestern coast of Mexico due to the cyclone's expected
intensification and associated increase in the size of the wind
field.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.1N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.8N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 17.8N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.8N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.7N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 20.3N 113.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

I don't know why CMISS wasn't considered, which is at T3.5/55 knts.

[Yellow Evan]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES
Sunday 12jul15 Time: 1234 UTC
Latitude: 15.96 Longitude: -101.26
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 9 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 995 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 50 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 00.89
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.37
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 00.41
RMW: 30 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1009 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 12 Time (UTC): 1200

Probs 50ish now.

Expect NHC to go with 45.

TXPZ21 KNES 121818
TCSENP

A. 05E (DOLORES)

B. 12/1745Z

C. 15.5N

D. 102.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING OF 6/10 YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.5 AND
PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[lilybeth]

I haven't followed as many EPAC storms on here so please forgive me my dumb questions - will they do recon on this at some point? Do they do recon on EPAC disturbances as often as they do on ATL disturbances? Thank you to anyone who has a chance to answer.

[Yellow Evan]

I haven't followed as many EPAC storms on here so please forgive me my dumb questions - will they do recon on this at some point? Do they do recon on EPAC disturbances as often as they do on ATL disturbances? Thank you to anyone who has a chance to answer.

They sometimes do it if there is a hurricane near Mexico or a system affects Hawaii. But not nearly as often, though there's been a lot of recon the past 2 years.

Won't be shocked if they send a plane trough this though.