EPAC: HILDA - Recon

[Chris_in_Tampa]

E to W pass:

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 972.2 mb
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 76 knots
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 78 knots
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 75 knots

[Chris_in_Tampa]

977mb, surface wind of 13 knots

UZPN13 KNHC 100616
XXAA 60067 99155 71487 05158 99977 27207 15513 00711 ///// /////
92482 24402 16010 85224 21410 17010 70902 17057 06006 88999 77999
31313 09608 80607
61616 AF309 0110E HILDA OB 18
62626 CENTER MBL WND 16011 AEV 07775 DLM WND 16007 976696 WL150 1
6512 084 REL 1553N14874W 060734 SPG 1554N14874W 061206 =
XXBB 60068 99155 71487 05158 00977 27207 11850 21410 22796 19425
33753 20057 44710 18457 55696 16457
21212 00977 15513 11970 17013 22938 15011 33850 17010 44696 06007
31313 09608 80607
61616 AF309 0110E HILDA OB 18
62626 CENTER MBL WND 16011 AEV 07775 DLM WND 16007 976696 WL150 1
6512 084 REL 1553N14874W 060734 SPG 1554N14874W 061206 =
;

I will post a final image when the vortex comes out.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN12 KNHC 100631
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP102015
A. 10/06:07:30Z
B. 15 deg 32 min N
148 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2896 m
D. 75 kt
E. 101 deg 5 nm
F. 195 deg 78 kt
G. 101 deg 8 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 11 C / 3064 m
J. 18 C / 3058 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. E26/4/8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0110E HILDA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 96 KT 087 / 19 NM 03:48:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 155 / 13 KT
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 272 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Mission over.





Next mission:

Code: Select all

    1. HURRICANE HILDA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
       A. 10/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0210E HILDA
       C. 10/1415Z (10:15am EDT, 4:15am HST, scheduled departure)
       D. 16.8N 149.8W
       E. 10/1615Z TO 10/1915Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT

[Kingarabian]

Chris, from that picture it looks like the center fixes are slightly to the south of the official forecast?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

A tiny bit going by a line between the two forecast points. However, since it is supposed to be turning more, the movement between the two points would actually supposed to be a curve, so it's really uncertain if it really is south of where it should be. Perhaps it is not unless it continues its movement in that direction.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's still 85kts?

Highest Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.):

91 kts (104.7 mph)

Highest Max Flt. Wind
(in Remarks):

91 kts
(104.7 mph)

Highest Surface Wind :

85 kts
(97.8 mph)

Lowest Surface Pressure:

971 mb (28.85 inHg

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 110311
AF303 0310E HILDA HDOB 11 20150811
030200 1719N 15123W 6975 03167 0067 +100 +073 038018 019 032 001 00
030230 1717N 15122W 6966 03174 0063 +100 +073 034019 019 031 001 00
030300 1716N 15120W 6972 03166 0062 +100 +078 034020 023 032 001 00
030330 1715N 15119W 6965 03174 0051 +109 +067 027016 019 032 000 00
030400 1714N 15117W 6973 03167 0050 +111 +066 030023 025 034 000 00
030430 1713N 15116W 6961 03180 0041 +117 +063 034025 027 034 001 00
030500 1712N 15114W 6967 03169 0041 +117 +061 036030 032 036 001 00
030530 1711N 15113W 6964 03173 0042 +115 +061 037033 034 037 001 00
030600 1710N 15111W 6972 03162 0036 +119 +065 033033 035 038 001 00
030630 1709N 15110W 6967 03166 0038 +116 +065 031036 038 039 000 00
030700 1707N 15108W 6967 03164 0040 +113 +059 032037 038 039 001 00
030730 1706N 15107W 6969 03160 0032 +117 +057 030036 038 043 003 00
030800 1705N 15105W 6966 03161 0025 +119 +059 024038 039 043 004 00
030830 1704N 15104W 6967 03158 0022 +119 +064 017041 042 043 004 00
030900 1703N 15102W 6969 03150 0027 +111 +071 021042 044 042 005 00
030930 1701N 15101W 6967 03147 0026 +107 +079 022047 047 051 002 00
031000 1700N 15100W 6968 03144 0020 +110 +072 019050 052 052 002 03
031030 1659N 15058W 6972 03134 0011 +113 +068 019052 053 051 003 00
031100 1658N 15056W 6971 03122 9991 +118 +074 019051 053 052 004 00
031130 1657N 15055W 6962 03127 9993 +108 +085 017053 054 055 006 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 110321
AF303 0310E HILDA HDOB 12 20150811
031200 1656N 15053W 6966 03117 9985 +107 +098 023057 061 058 006 00
031230 1655N 15052W 6962 03111 9964 +115 +105 025056 059 059 006 00
031300 1653N 15050W 6968 03094 9951 +117 +114 019056 058 067 013 00
031330 1652N 15049W 6968 03085 9960 +115 +114 010058 062 071 026 00
031400 1651N 15047W 6951 03089 9965 +120 +120 028073 081 074 026 00
031430 1650N 15046W 6987 03031 9921 +119 //// 019055 081 077 016 01
031500 1649N 15044W 6965 03033 9848 +142 +123 005033 053 078 013 03
031530 1649N 15042W 6971 03006 9827 +142 +118 015020 028 079 011 03
031600 1649N 15040W 6948 03023 9801 +157 +110 023026 027 080 010 00
031630 1649N 15039W 6970 02997 9786 +173 +097 024013 025 036 003 00
031700 1648N 15037W 6969 02993 9780 +173 +096 079005 008 026 002 03
031730 1647N 15036W 6967 02994 9776 +176 +090 218006 009 024 000 00
031800 1645N 15034W 6968 02993 9773 +180 +085 237018 021 023 000 00
031830 1644N 15033W 6962 03006 9780 +178 +088 245030 033 019 000 00
031900 1643N 15031W 6970 03003 9783 +182 +083 245036 036 021 001 00
031930 1642N 15030W 6971 03016 9794 +183 +080 245045 048 031 000 00
032000 1640N 15028W 6939 03066 9835 +166 +048 248079 082 027 000 03
032030 1639N 15027W 6976 03039 9868 +155 +047 250080 084 048 003 00
032100 1637N 15026W 6970 03070 9903 +138 +064 246076 080 052 002 00
032130 1636N 15025W 6965 03073 9912 +134 +073 246075 079 058 005 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Images shortly.

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 110333
AF303 0310E HILDA HDOB 13 20150811
032200 1635N 15023W 6984 03070 9965 +110 +104 246071 074 058 007 00
032230 1633N 15022W 6970 03098 9983 +107 //// 247069 073 057 006 01
032300 1632N 15020W 6974 03113 9993 +105 +099 229064 068 057 005 00
032330 1631N 15019W 6960 03129 0003 +102 +087 225062 063 053 003 00
032400 1630N 15018W 6970 03123 0016 +092 +092 224057 059 051 002 01
032430 1628N 15017W 6969 03132 0024 +094 +091 226054 055 047 002 00
032500 1627N 15015W 6963 03141 0031 +092 +083 227054 055 046 001 00
032530 1626N 15014W 6955 03153 0033 +090 +083 221051 054 042 002 01
032600 1625N 15013W 6974 03136 0037 +095 +080 217048 051 040 000 00
032630 1623N 15011W 6959 03157 //// +090 //// 214049 050 039 000 01
032700 1622N 15010W 6967 03151 //// +088 //// 212049 050 038 000 01
032730 1621N 15008W 6968 03152 0046 +094 +089 214044 049 035 001 01
032800 1619N 15007W 6964 03158 0049 +093 +089 212042 044 034 000 01
032830 1618N 15006W 6961 03159 0045 +096 +075 210040 041 033 000 00
032900 1616N 15004W 6967 03151 0040 +099 +075 211041 042 032 000 00
032930 1615N 15002W 6965 03155 0044 +096 +079 210039 040 031 000 00
033000 1613N 15001W 6967 03155 0052 +093 +078 209041 041 029 000 00
033030 1611N 14959W 6967 03156 0060 +087 +072 211043 043 027 000 00
033100 1609N 14957W 6970 03155 0066 +085 +074 215043 043 026 000 00
033130 1608N 14955W 6966 03157 0067 +085 +074 215042 043 021 002 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 3:31:30Z:



With vortex messages from previous missions.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 3:41:30Z:



Yellow track was prior forecast track. With vortex messages from previous missions.

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 110341
AF303 0310E HILDA HDOB 14 20150811
033200 1607N 14952W 6970 03157 0069 +086 +073 210040 042 /// /// 03
033230 1609N 14950W 6966 03164 0070 +085 +075 205038 039 /// /// 03
033300 1612N 14950W 6965 03162 0069 +085 +073 205039 039 022 000 03
033330 1615N 14951W 6963 03163 0065 +085 +074 207040 041 026 001 00
033400 1618N 14951W 6966 03159 0067 +085 +074 207041 042 027 000 00
033430 1620N 14951W 6971 03152 0064 +087 +073 203042 042 029 001 00
033500 1623N 14950W 6973 03153 0059 +092 +070 195042 042 029 000 00
033530 1626N 14950W 6975 03155 0064 +090 +072 193043 045 029 000 00
033600 1629N 14950W 6970 03160 0063 +094 +070 192045 045 029 000 00
033630 1631N 14950W 6970 03163 0063 +094 +071 189044 046 031 000 00
033700 1633N 14950W 6970 03160 0062 +092 +074 184044 045 029 000 00
033730 1636N 14950W 6965 03166 0060 +092 +078 183045 046 031 001 00
033800 1638N 14949W 6970 03158 //// +090 //// 181045 046 031 001 01
033830 1640N 14949W 6980 03150 0059 +095 +082 182045 046 030 001 00
033900 1643N 14949W 6969 03160 0056 +095 +083 177043 044 031 003 00
033930 1645N 14949W 6970 03161 0056 +097 +080 173041 043 033 002 00
034000 1647N 14949W 6966 03166 0053 +098 +084 173041 042 034 004 00
034030 1649N 14949W 6962 03169 0064 +095 //// 170043 044 036 005 01
034100 1651N 14949W 6970 03162 0059 +097 +095 170042 043 037 005 00
034130 1653N 14948W 6965 03169 0077 +098 +098 170046 047 037 015 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN12 KNHC 110333
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP102015
A. 11/03:17:10Z
B. 16 deg 48 min N
150 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2954 m
D. 80 kt
E. 286 deg 3 nm
F. 028 deg 81 kt
G. 287 deg 10 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 12 C / 3050 m
J. 18 C / 3047 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C28
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0310E HILDA OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 84 KT 134 / 12 NM 03:20:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 350 / 5 KT

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NW to SE pass:

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 977.3 mb
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 80 knots (92.1 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 84 knots (~ 96.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 80 knots (92.1 mph)

Actual pressure from sonde: 981mb, with 5 knot surface wind

[Kingarabian]

Potential to find lower pressure is there as intense thunder storms continue to blossom.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 3:51:30Z:

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 110351
AF303 0310E HILDA HDOB 15 20150811
034200 1655N 14948W 6970 03163 0085 +101 +101 167045 046 038 012 00
034230 1658N 14948W 6969 03166 0090 +099 //// 163045 046 038 008 01
034300 1700N 14948W 6957 03172 0087 +099 +099 169045 046 037 010 00
034330 1702N 14948W 6976 03157 0094 +097 +097 163045 047 038 009 00
034400 1704N 14948W 6964 03171 0088 +096 +096 157048 050 036 006 00
034430 1706N 14947W 6973 03164 0094 +092 //// 155043 048 035 006 01
034500 1708N 14947W 6966 03171 //// +084 //// 149042 043 034 004 01
034530 1710N 14947W 6971 03163 //// +087 //// 152038 041 032 003 01
034600 1712N 14947W 6970 03167 0064 +092 +087 153039 040 031 000 01
034630 1714N 14947W 6968 03172 0072 +090 +085 153039 040 031 000 01
034700 1716N 14947W 6967 03172 //// +085 //// 148038 040 032 003 01
034730 1718N 14947W 6967 03172 0073 +090 +087 148036 037 034 003 00
034800 1720N 14946W 6967 03173 0066 +096 +093 148036 038 032 001 00
034830 1722N 14946W 6971 03171 0069 +095 +088 149036 038 034 005 00
034900 1724N 14946W 6961 03182 0070 +096 +081 147035 036 034 000 00
034930 1726N 14946W 6969 03173 0077 +091 +085 149037 039 033 003 00
035000 1728N 14946W 6962 03179 0082 +091 //// 141039 040 036 005 01
035030 1730N 14946W 6965 03176 0077 +099 +099 144037 040 041 013 00
035100 1732N 14945W 6979 03160 0097 +103 +103 122041 044 048 021 00
035130 1734N 14945W 6965 03171 0087 +105 +105 119043 044 047 024 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

With analysed shear from CIMSS:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Their epic Google Earth product: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/k ... TCmain.kml