WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

07W SEVEN 150508 1200 4.1N 162.5E WPAC 35 996

7th TS of the season!

2015 is now ahead of every year on record breaking the record set in May 19, 1971...

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 081221

A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SE OF POHNPEI)

B. 08/1132Z

C. 3.93N

D. 162.56E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 2.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/0826Z 4.07N 162.22E SSMS


LEMBKE

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 MAY 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 4:11:05 N Lon : 162:17:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.6mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.1 3.1

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.8 degrees

[cycloneye]

JTWC 15:00 UTC upgrades Tropical Depression 07W to Tropical Storm at 35kts but without the name Dolphin because JMA has not done the upgrade yet.



WDPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED IN AN ATYPICAL EASTWARD
DIRECTION BY ENHANCED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL, NEAR-EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
FLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 071132Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX
AND A 081016Z ASCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 07W
LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER, ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPCOMING TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED
TRACK SPEEDS. THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH A GROUPING OF MODELS THAT INCLUDES A MAJORITY OF
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND NOTED
MODEL SPREAD, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD, IN
TERMS OF TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED, REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NO APPARENT PRIMARY GROUPING. THE CURRENT
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPQ82 PGUM 081707
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM 07W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST SAT MAY 9 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 07W DRIFTING EAST...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON KOSRAE...AND ON PINGELAP...MOKIL...SAPWUAFIK
(NGATIK)...PAKIN AND POHNPEI IN POHNPEI STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP AND MOKIL IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO
73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.1N 162.5E

ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 765 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST...090 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

TROPICAL STORM 07W IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD PINGELAP
AND MOKIL. BY EVENING...TROPICAL STORM 07W IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
POHNPEI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS THE FUTURE
TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL STORM 07W SO THAT WINDS...SEAS
AND OTHER STORM EFFECTS FOR EACH ISLAND ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN.

...KOSRAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AND PLENTY OF GASOLINE FOR
VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. FIND A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES.
DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AFTER
TROPICAL STORM 07W MOVES AWAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM 07W WILL LIKELY BRING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF KOSRAE LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND PEAK LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH AS 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEED...TIMING AND
DIRECTION MAY VARY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STORM MOTION.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 14 FEET. INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 FOOT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

...PINGELAP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. FIND A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM
SHORELINES. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...

AS TROPICAL STORM 07W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEED...TIMING AND DIRECTION MAY VARY DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY HOW TROPICAL STORM 07W MOVES.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FEET OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS
MAY PEAK AT 15 FEET OR MORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRODUCING DANGEROUS
SURF UP TO 18 FEET.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

...MOKIL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. FIND A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM
SHORELINES. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...

AS TROPICAL STORM 07W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE TO 40 TO 50
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 50 TO 60 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASE FURTHER TO 25 TO
35 MPH BY EVENING. WIND SPEED...TIMING AND DIRECTION MAY VARY
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW TROPICAL STORM 07W MOVES.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FEET OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SEAS MAY PEAK
AT 15 FEET OR MORE SUNDAY MORNING......PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF UP
TO 18 FEET.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

...POHNPEI AND PAKIN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD
AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AND PLENTY OF GASOLINE FOR VEHICLES AND
GENERATORS. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. WIND SPEED...TIMING AND DIRECTION MAY
VARY DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW TROPICAL STORM 07W MOVES.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS TROPICAL STORM 07W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD LAST INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF THE TRACK DROPS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FEET OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS MAY PEAK AT 15 FEET OR MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 18 FEET.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

...SAPWUAFIK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TROPICAL STORM 07W PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...ANY SUDDEN CHANGE IN THE PATH TO THE SOUTH COULD PUT
SAPWUAFIK INTO THE EFFECTS OF A TROPICAL STORM. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
A SOUTHERLY DRIFT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM 07W
COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT...WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY ON WEST AND
NORTH FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 FOOT IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 081900
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 07W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
500 AM CHST SAT MAY 9 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 07W STILL DRIFTING EAST...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP AND MOKIL IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO
73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF FANANU IN CHUUK STATE...AND THE MARIANAS SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM 07W.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.0N 162.7E

ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 780 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST...090 DEGREES AT 4 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 07W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.7 EAST. 07W IS
DRIFTING EAST AT 4 MPH AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING AND NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON TOWARD PINGELAP AND MOKIL...AND
INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. BY EVENING...TROPICAL STORM 07W IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 07W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND WITHIN ABOUT 40 MILES OF THE
CENTER...MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

Good morning to our newest TS...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 MAY 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 4:09:29 N Lon : 162:38:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 992.1mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.2 degrees

[cycloneye]

PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081714Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 07W IS BEING STEERED IN AN ATYPICAL EASTWARD
DIRECTION BY ENHANCED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF DECREASING VWS, INCREASING WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPCOMING TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ASSOCIATED TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS
CONSISTENT WITH A GROUPING OF MODELS THAT INCLUDES A MAJORITY OF
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND NOTED
MODEL SPREAD, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL
SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD, IN TERMS OF
TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED, REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH NO APPARENT PRIMARY GROUPING. FOR THIS REASON, THE
EXTENDED JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

This is a very good discussion from the Guam NWS made on Saturday morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
735 AM CHST SAT MAY 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER THE MARIANAS.
SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 FEET AT THE IPAN BUOY. MEANWHILE...TS O7W
IS STILL NEARLY STATIONARY 75 MILES SSW OF KOSRAE...TRYING TO
BREAK FREE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAD TO DO A MAJOR REVAMP OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE
PROLONGED DELAY IN GETTING TS 07W TO MOVE. THE TS-RELATED WEATHER
WE HAD BEEN FORECASTING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK 48 TO 60 HOURS...SO
THAT INSTEAD OF APPROACHING THE MARIANAS AROUND TUESDAY...TS 07W
IS NOW FORECAST TO DO THAT THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD NOW LAST THROUGH TUESDAY...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO START WED NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. REFRESHED WINDS FROM THE 12Z GFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND USED ECMWF WINDS BEYOND THAT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING TS 07W...CANNOT FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OF
COURSE IF 07W DRAWS A BEAD ON GUAM AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS...
CONDITIONS COULD BE A LOT WORSE THU-FRI THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED ALL WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DELAY NOTED
ABOVE IN BREAKING TS 07W OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SO
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 5-7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RISE SLOWLY
TUE-WED AS TS 07W APPROACHES 150E. SEAS OF 12 FEET OR HIGHER ARE
NOT EXPECTED NOW UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TS 07W IS STILL MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND THE LONG-ANTICIPATED
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST HAS YET TO SHOW ITSELF. IN
ADDITION THE STORM IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION
FIRING UP NEAR THE CENTER AT INTERVALS ONLY TO BE SHEARED OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST BY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
THIS PROBLEM AS LONG AS ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION KEEPS TRYING TO
GO AGAINST THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW. ONCE THE TURN TAKES PLACE
AND 07W STARTS MOVING WNW WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS...ALLOWING TS 07W TO BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED AND BEGIN STEADY INTENSIFICATION.

AS FAR AS THE MARIANAS ARE CONCERNED...THERE IS STILL A LARGE
RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES WITH RESPECT TO 07W...RANGING FROM
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THU-FRI TO A DIRECT HIT
FROM A TYPHOON. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR WATCHES TO BE ISSUED
FOR THE MARIANAS...BUT IT IS NOT TOO EARLY TO MAKE SURE WE WILL
BE PREPARED FOR WHATEVER HAPPENS LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM 07W IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
NEAR 4N163E THIS MORNING. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH 07W ARE MAINLY WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. POCKETS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN
FLARING UP NEAR THE CENTER SINCE MIDNIGHT. LATEST IR SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST CONVECTION MIGHT BE WEAKENING. UNTIL 07W HAS
ESTABLISHED A BETTER VERTICAL STRUCTURE...ITS MOVEMENT IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
THEREFORE 07W MIGHT NOT TURN NORTHWARD AS PREDICTED TODAY. A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DRIFT OF 07W WILL PUT KOSRAE UNDER STRONGER
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPORADIC
CONVECTION WILL ALSO PERSIST NEAR POHNPEI THRU TONIGHT AS FRESH
TRADES CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
07W. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LINKED UP WITH 07W BY A
MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR BUTARITARI ATOLL AT 3N174E. TRADE-
WIND CONVERGENCE NORTH OF ITS CENTER IS TRIGGERING SHOWERY WEATHER
NEAR MAJURO AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THRU TONIGHT.

ASSUMING 07W WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND BEGIN TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM KOSRAE. EXPECT THESE ELEMENTS TO
APPROACH POHNPEI ON SUNDAY WHICH MIGHT PRODUCE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...
BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SHOULD BE UNDER THE MONSOONAL WINDS SOUTH OF
07W. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF 07W BY THEN...IT CAN CREATE A
MONSOONAL SURGE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS AND SUSTAIN SHOWERY WEATHER
AND GUSTY WINDS UNTIL MIDWEEK. AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF MAJURO ALSO LIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WEAKER WINDS NEAR THE DISTURBANCE CENTER MIGHT
ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR MAJURO.
HOWEVER... MORE WETNESS IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK AS A TRADE
CONVERGENCE ZONE PROGRESSES WESTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE TOWARD
THE MARSHALLS.

HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SURF GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM 07W WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT KOSRAE THRU AT LEAST THIS EVENING. BUILDING TRADE-WIND
SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL ALSO SUSTAIN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WINDS FOR
SMALL CRAFT NEAR POHNPEI THRU TONIGHT. SEAS AND SURF WILL BUILD EVEN
HIGHER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS 07W APPROACHES POHNPEI FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. SEAS AND SURF SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON BOTH PLACES
AFTER MONDAY AS 07W MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRIER MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE GOING TO PROMOTE RELATIVELY
FAIR WEATHER NEAR CHUUK THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE ON CHUUK SUNDAY NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM 07W
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR POHNPEI. THE LATEST TRACK OF 07W TAKES
IT NORTH OF CHUUK AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN AND WINDS CHUUK WILL EXPERIENCE AT THIS
POINT. AFTERWARD...A POSSIBLE MONSOON SURGE IN THE WAKE OF 07W COULD
PROLONG BAD WEATHER THRU MIDWEEK. RESIDENTS IN CHUUK STATE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STATUS OF 07W AND PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
INCLEMENT WEATHER...HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SURF IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH CONNECTS TYPHOON NOUL OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
AT 13N128E WITH TROPICAL STORM 07W SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE. A NEUTRAL
AREA ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS NEAR KOROR
AND YAP THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PORTION OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM 07W WILL START TO DOMINATE
WESTERN MICRONESIA. IN RESPONSE...MODERATE NORTHEAST TO NORTH TRADE
WINDS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THRU AT LEAST MIDWEEK. A TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR 158E
COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS NEAR YAP ON MONDAY. 07W IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER OF EITHER LOCALE UNTIL
AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 082321Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE
BANDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 07W HAS TURNED POLEWARD AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF DECREASING
VWS, INCREASING WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY
WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL
SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT INDICATES SIGNIFICANT SPREAD,
IN TERMS OF TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAY 2015 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 4:54:17 N Lon : 162:05:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 993.0mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -84.0C Cloud Region Temp : -87.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.8 degrees

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression 07W is organizing slowly but surely. It has the look like is going to be one for the record books intensitywise but hopefully it peaks in open waters and not near the Mariana islands.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS ELONGATED CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090254Z MHS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS BROKEN AND ELONGATED BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE
BULK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
SUPPORTED BY A PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 07W HAS
CONTINUED TO TURN SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AS A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS TAKING OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
BUILDING STR ASSUMES STEERING. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS CAUSING MODEST
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH
DECREASING VWS AND AN INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL LEAD
TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
THE STEERING STR TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TS 07W TO TURN SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BEYOND TAU 24 IN THE SPECIFIC TRAJECTORY. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
BUT DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DIVERGENCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 090850
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 07W ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 PM CHST SAT MAY 9 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 07W NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR KOSRAE...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 6 HOURS OR ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP AND MOKIL IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO
73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF FANANU IN CHUUK STATE...AND THE MARIANAS SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM 07W.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...5.0N 162.0E

ABOUT 70 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 07W WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.0 EAST. 07W IS
NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...TOWARD PINGELAP AND MOKIL.
SOME ERRATIC MOVEMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT TROPICAL STORM 07W IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ON A NORTHWEST TRACK AT AN INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED BY LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WOULD
TAKE IT ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT 07W IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. TROPICAL STORM
07W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND WITHIN ABOUT 60 MILES OF THE
CENTER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

Up to 3.0

TPPN11 PGTW 090913

A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SE OF POHNPEI)

B. 09/0832Z

C. 4.85N

D. 162.28E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 WRAP + WHITE YIELDS A DT OF
3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/0815Z 4.85N 162.30E SSMS


LONG

[euro6208]

Mind Boggling.



07W SEVEN 150509 0000 4.5N 162.5E WPAC 35 996

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


01L ANA 150509 0000 31.9N 77.3W ATL 50 1000

Can't believe this too...

If Ana was over here it would be a 35 knots TS based on 2.5 dvorak and highest ADT is only 2.3 so far and before it was upgraded there was nothing. Goes to show that looks doesn't matter no matter how weak it looks if you have recon.

I wonder how much stronger our typhoons over here were that peaked at 6.5 and higher...

[euro6208]

Kosrae getting 25 mph gusting to 30 mph

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm Dolphin.

TS 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 9 May 2015
<Analyses at 09/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N4°50'(4.8°)
E162°20'(162.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°50'(6.8°)
E160°05'(160.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°50'(8.8°)
E157°55'(157.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 12/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°55'(9.9°)
E155°25'(155.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[euro6208]

Up to 40 knots!

07W SEVEN 150509 1200 5.3N 162.3E WPAC 40 993

[cycloneye]

euro,you have to start to prepare there as it looks like Guam may get a decent Typhoon moving over or close.



WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091051Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BULK OF CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT UNDER EASTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE. TS 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN TO ASSUME STEERING.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
BUILDING STR ASSUMES STEERING. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS CAUSING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH
DECREASING VWS (10-15 KNOTS) AND AN INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 120.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE STEERING STR TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TS 07W TO TURN
SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND THE TIMING
OF THE NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION; HOWEVER, SLIGHT MODEL DIVERGENCE
AT TAU 24 RESULTS IN A 200-NM SPREAD BY TAU 120 LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN