EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
400 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

There has been no significant change in Dolores' organization
during the past several hours. Satellite imagery continues to
show most of the cyclone's deep convection remaining in a band over
the northeastern semicircle of the circulation. This convective
asymmetry is likely related to some west-northwesterly shear as
diagnosed by UW-CIMSS and SHIPS shear analyses. An ASCAT-B pass
showed the center barely underneath the convective mass, with peak
uncontaminated winds around 45 kt. Based on the ASCAT data, the
initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

The ASCAT pass showed the center of Dolores to be a bit farther
south than previous estimates, and the heading is estimated to be
more westerly or 295/09. A subtropical ridge over the south-central
United States should guide Dolores generally west-northwestward
with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. The
cyclone's heading should become more northwesterly by 72 hours, when
Dolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. Later in the
forecast period, Dolores' track should bend back toward the west-
northwest as the subtropical ridge reasserts itself. The
official track forecast is similar to but a little to the left of
the previous one through 48 hours and slightly to the right after
that. The track forecast after 48 hours is near a multi-model
consensus that excludes the GFDL solution which unrealistically
takes Dolores toward the Baja California peninsula.

Thermodynamic variables in the near-storm environment are quite
conducive for intensification, with sea surface temperatures of
29-30 deg C and plenty of deep-layer moisture. Some west-
northwesterly shear is forecast to persist and perhaps even
increase over the next day or so before decreasing from 72 hours
through the remainder of the forecast period. However, the shear
is not expected to be strong enough to impede steady
intensification. With a sharp gradient in SSTs along 20N, the
intensity late in the period is very much dependent on how much
latitude Dolores gains by that time. The NHC intensity forecast is
about the same as the previous one and is very similar to the
multi-model consensus (ICON) through 48 hours but above ICON
after that, closest to the SHIPS model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 15.6N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.2N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.8N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.2N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 18.9N 109.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 20.9N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

Best chance is 36 hours and beyond looking at this

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DOLORES EP052015 07/12/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 58 64 69 83 86 91 88 93 92 89
V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 58 64 69 83 86 91 88 93 92 89
V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 56 61 65 70 72 73 73 71 69
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 9 14 11 13 12 7 11 8 4 2 7 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -5 -7 -7 -2 -5 -3 -5 1 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 230 275 290 280 294 308 322 350 334 351 356 54 62
SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.4 28.9 28.4 27.8 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 165 163 157 151 146 140 134 132 130 129
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 81 78 74 74 73 74 71 71 66 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 22 23 23 30 32 37 37 40 41 41
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -12 -6 2 15 18 33 51 59 76 104 108 109
200 MB DIV 76 107 73 63 82 44 87 60 62 35 67 34 26
700-850 TADV 5 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1
LAND (KM) 264 247 243 266 294 321 371 408 445 404 396 440 527
LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2
LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.4 104.3 105.1 105.9 107.1 108.1 108.9 109.6 110.6 111.7 112.9 114.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 40 41 39 40 40 33 24 19 14 9 3 1 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 9. 10. 21. 25. 32. 31. 37. 38. 36.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 38. 41. 46. 43. 48. 47. 45.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS



12z GFs



I will not that the GFS is overdoing this somewhat, evidence by how fast they deepen this. The reason has to do with the prescience of a Gulf of Tuahneptec gap event, causing too much divergence aloft to be predicted into the model.





It's not 994 mbars right now.

12z ECMWF. More conservative, but by the looks of it, a possible Cat 2/3

[cycloneye]

It will be interesting to watch the observations at Socorro Island as Dolores moves close or over that island.Does anyone has a link to the observations?

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

It appears that the GFS/GFDL are too bullish with the intensity forecast. GFS in fact brings it to Category 5 status and while GFDL isn't too much bullish due to its easterly track long-term, both models show way too much depending overnight (like 30 mbar's of deepening!). They likely overdoing the effects of a GOT gap event. HWRF/ECMWF looks more reasonable. Also worth noting the peak intensity shown by the NHC may be too late shown, as most of the guidance brings it over cooler waters in a tad over 72 hours, though could be a bit later if it goes more SW than forecast. So far, the storm is a little more S than expected, but N of some GFS runs and the GFDL.

Shear is likely to drop off in 36 hours, but it could increase in the short term (you can tell it's stronger than yestersday, even if it is slowly becoming more organized). Just to keep it safe, I wouldn't expect too much over the next 36 hours, maybe no deepening at all. Good news is it's on to a decent start building an core, and it will need to build one within 48 hours, since it's gonna have around 36-48 hours of favorable conditions max if the track holds true. A lot more can happen in that time than people think, so therefore, I still think this is a good bet to peak as a Category 2, 3, or 4 hurricane, but if the storm does not build a core fast enough, it could be weaker.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2015 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 15:39:04 N Lon : 103:07:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 998.3mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 4.2

Center Temp : -76.0C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 103.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ21 KNES 130009
TCSENP

A. 05E (DOLORES)

B. 12/2345Z

C. 15.9N

D. 103.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.0 IS BASED ON 0.6 BANDING. MET IS 2.5 AND PT IS
3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2234Z 15.9N 103.3W SSMIS

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 2015071300, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1034W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 40, 0, 100, 1010, 120, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOLORES, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

Still 45 despite some improvement.

[Alyono]

well defined upper low northwest of this

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...DOLORES A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 103.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

The cloud pattern of Dolores has become a little better organized
this evening, with slightly more defined convective banding features
over the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current intensity is
increased to 50 kt, which is just a bit above the latest Dvorak
estimates. The tropical cyclone will be traversing very warm waters
with abundant mid-level moisture over the next day or so, and the
only obvious impediment to strengthening should be moderate vertical
shear. The shear is not expected to be a strong inhibitor for
intensification, however. The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is very similar to
the previous NHC forecast and shows Dolores strengthening close to
major hurricane status. Weakening should commence later in the
forecast period, when the cyclone nears 20N latitude and the sea
surface temperatures begin to cool significantly.

The initial motion, 300/10 kt, is about the same as in the previous
advisory. Most of the track guidance shows a continued
west-northwestward motion, albeit almost northwest at times,
throughout the forecast period. A mid-tropospheric ridge to the
north and northeast of Dolores is forecast by the global models to
weaken over the next few days. This should cause a decrease in the
forward speed of the tropical cyclone. Near the end of the forecast
period, Dolores is expected to accelerate a bit as the ridge to the
north builds back in. The official track forecast lies roughly in
the middle of the guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.2N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.1N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 17.4N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 17.8N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 20.4N 112.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Hurricane Jed]

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

The cloud pattern of Dolores has become a little better organized
this evening, with slightly more defined convective banding features
over the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current intensity is
increased to 50 kt, which is just a bit above the latest Dvorak
estimates. The tropical cyclone will be traversing very warm waters
with abundant mid-level moisture over the next day or so, and the
only obvious impediment to strengthening should be moderate vertical
shear. The shear is not expected to be a strong inhibitor for
intensification, however. The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is very similar to
the previous NHC forecast and shows Dolores strengthening close to
major hurricane status. Weakening should commence later in the
forecast period, when the cyclone nears 20N latitude and the sea
surface temperatures begin to cool significantly.

The initial motion, 300/10 kt, is about the same as in the previous
advisory. Most of the track guidance shows a continued
west-northwestward motion, albeit almost northwest at times,
throughout the forecast period. A mid-tropospheric ridge to the
north and northeast of Dolores is forecast by the global models to
weaken over the next few days. This should cause a decrease in the
forward speed of the tropical cyclone. Near the end of the forecast
period, Dolores is expected to accelerate a bit as the ridge to the
north builds back in. The official track forecast lies roughly in
the middle of the guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.2N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.1N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 17.4N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 17.8N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 20.4N 112.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Hurricane Jed]

Dang cycloneye beat me to it

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Looks for now like one of these storms that intensify even though shear is coming. At least 15 knot of shear, maybe 30-35 knts of shear though will become an issue soon. In the meantime, hopefully, this will try to build an inner core and hopefully will bomb out later on. While it's looking very very nice, and if the shear is stronger than expected, rapid weakening is a possibility.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2015 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 16:07:05 N Lon : 103:35:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 993.9mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.8

Center Temp : -61.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Kingarabian]

CIMSS actually has 30kts of shear to the NW.

[Yellow Evan]

CIMSS actually has 30kts of shear to the NW.

Hence why I think tomorrow will be very difficult for the storm.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2015 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 16:14:52 N Lon : 103:55:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 993.9mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.7 4.0

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -74.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION