EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Probably a hurricane already:



Warm spot evident.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Jimena looks like it's about to do some serious RI. Excellent outflow, banding and structure.

[Kingarabian]

Jimena looks like it's about to do some serious RI. Excellent outflow, banding and structure.

Excuse my excitement but IT'S PROBABLY RI'ING RIGHT NOW!

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2015 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 12:25:00 N Lon : 119:07:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 992.7mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.0 4.1

Center Temp : -75.1C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

[Yellow Evan]

Probs 65-70 knots now.

[Yellow Evan]

That is more than 9/10ths banding.

TXPZ21 KNES 280014
TCSENP

A. 13E (JIMENA)

B. 28/0000Z

C. 12.3N

D. 119.3W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...9/10 VISIBLE BANDING FOR DT=3.5. MET=3.0 WITH PT=3.5.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/2209Z 12.4N 119.1W SSMI


...SALEMI

[Yellow Evan]

201508280000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1240N, 11920W, , 2, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, JA, VI, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, Pattern is a 4.0

[Yellow Evan]

Wow.

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  JIMENA      EP132015  08/28/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    60    68    76    84    92   106   115   121   119   119   117   112   111
V (KT) LAND       60    68    76    84    92   106   115   121   119   119   117   112   111
V (KT) LGE mod    60    71    83    94   105   126   138   140   131   122   113   100    89
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     5     6     6     7     6     8     6     6     8     6     7     9
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -3    -2    -1    -3    -4    -2     0    -2     0     1     6     8
SHEAR DIR        305   333   353    32    58    40    26    27   352   354   359    38    19
SST (C)         29.7  29.6  29.5  29.4  29.3  29.3  29.3  29.2  28.9  28.5  28.1  27.8  27.5
POT. INT. (KT)   162   161   160   159   158   157   157   157   154   150   145   141   137
200 MB T (C)   -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -51.1 -50.5
TH_E DEV (C)       9     9     8     8     8     8     9     8     8     8     8     8     8
700-500 MB RH     72    70    72    70    69    65    61    61    62    61    64    66    65
MODEL VTX (KT)    18    20    21    23    25    29    32    34    36    39    39    39    42
850 MB ENV VOR    -3     3     8    15    28    58    69    74    78    68    69    62    65
200 MB DIV        98    96    71    71   106   109   124   107   102    61    35    31    62
700-850 TADV       0    -1    -2    -1    -1    -1     0    -3    -5    -4     1     4     5
LAND (KM)       1535  1612  1690  1756  1827  1941  2035  2145  2221  2324  2084  1884  1742
LAT (DEG N)     12.3  12.4  12.4  12.4  12.4  12.6  13.1  13.7  14.6  15.4  16.2  16.7  17.0
LONG(DEG W)    119.3 120.5 121.6 122.7 123.7 125.5 127.2 129.1 131.1 133.3 135.4 137.2 138.5
STM SPEED (KT)    11    11    11    10     9     9     9    10    11    11    10     8     6
HEAT CONTENT      31    34    36    32    30    33    36    40    21    18    16    36    27

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  40            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  543  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   6.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   5.   8.   9.  11.  12.  11.  10.   9.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   7.   8.   9.   9.  10.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.   0.   1.   3.   4.   6.   5.   5.   4.   4.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            4.   7.   8.   8.   7.   7.   5.   4.   3.   3.   2.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   2.   4.   8.  15.  20.  24.  26.  30.  32.  31.  35.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           8.  16.  24.  32.  46.  55.  61.  59.  59.  57.  52.  51.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA     08/28/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  20.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.3 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 100.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   6.7 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  32.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  88.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.6 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    77% is   5.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    77% is   8.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    71% is  11.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    71% is  16.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[dexterlabio]

Jimena looks like a hurricane much more than Ignacio. Are the folks in Hawaii keeping an eye on this storm as well or is it just Ignacio posing a threat to the islands?

[SouthDadeFish]

Doesn't get much prettier than this. Amazing structure.

[Yellow Evan]

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Jimena is rapidly intensifying based on satellite images. When I see a tropical storm becoming more circular, that usually is a sign of rapid intensification.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280255
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
800 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

Jimena has continued to rapidly intensify. Several convective bands
are tightly coiled and wrapping into the center where a small
central dense overcast feature has developed during the past couple
of hours. Upper-level outflow is nearly symmetrical and continues
to expand. The initial intensity of 60 kt is based on a blend of
consensus Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from
TAFB and SAB, and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T3.9/63 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The NHC model
guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, and
Jimena is expected to move westward along the southern periphery of
a strong subtropical ridge for the next 36-48 hours. After that
time, a turn toward the west-northwest accompanied by a decrease in
forward speed is expected as a mid-latitude trough digs southward
along 130-135W longitude, weakening the ridge and the steering
currents. The new forecast track is essentially just an extension of
the previous advisory track.

Jimena has been rapidly intensifying for the past 24 hours, so the
question now is how long will Jimena continue this develop trend.
The surrounding atmospheric and oceanic environments are quite
conducive for additional strengthening. Recent SSMI and SSMI/S
microwave satellite images indicate that a nearly closed eye of
15-20 nmi diameter has formed in the low- and mid-levels, which
favors continued rapid strengthening. Those same images also
indicated that dry mid-level air had wrapped into the northern
semicircle and had penetrated the inner-core convective region,
which could hinder development. However, this hindering factor
should be short lived given the very robust circulation noted in
conventional satellite imagery, which should quickly mix out any
dry. air intrusions. Therefore, since the vertical wind shear is
forecast to remain less than 10 kt, rapid intensification is
forecast to continue for another 36 hours or so. After that time,
the expected intense circulation of Jimena should begin to create
cold upwelling since the cyclone will be moving over significantly
lower upper ocean heat content values, which should cap the
intensification process and induce slow weakening by days 4 and 5.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and lies between the forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which
have performed quite well thus far with Jimena.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 12.3N 119.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 12.3N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 12.4N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 12.6N 125.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 17.5N 139.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[mrbagyo]

HURRICANE JIMENA
13E JIMENA 150828 0600 12.2N 120.5W EPAC 70 990

Jimena looks like a hurricane much more than Ignacio. Are the folks in Hawaii keeping an eye on this storm as well or is it just Ignacio posing a threat to the islands?

I think some surfers would even welcome the arrival of these two storms in Hawaii for the swells that they might produce.

[Extratropical94]

HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...JIMENA BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 121.0W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Satellite images indicate that Jimena is continuing to rapidly
intensify. The overall cold cloud canopy has expanded, with well-
defined banding features around the central dense overcast, which
has occasionally showed hints of an eye. The initial intensity is
raised to 70 kt, a blend of the 65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates
and a 77 kt objective value from the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/12 kt. Jimena is expected
to move westward along the southern periphery of the subtropical
ridge for the next 24-36 hours. After that time a turn toward the
west-northwest is expected, with some decrease in forward speed
likely late in the forecast due to a mid-latitude trough weakening
the ridge. The track guidance continues to be in remarkable
agreement on the forecast for the next several days, with the NHC
model guidance tightly packed near the 0300 UTC forecast track, so
the new forecast is very close to the previous one.

Environmental conditions are quite favorable for further
strengthening, with very warm water, high mid-level moisture and
low shear forecast for at least the next 48 hours. In response to
these conditions, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is
forecasting a 61 percent chance of a 30 kt increase during the next
24 hours. Thus, the official NHC prediction will continue to
explicitly indicate rapid intensification for the first day of the
forecast. Most of the guidance shows the peak intensity around 48
hours, so the NHC forecast will as well, although it remains below
some of the guidance. Beyond that time, slightly cooler SSTs are
expected, along with lower upper-ocean heat content values.
Therefore, slow weakening is indicated from days 3 to 5. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
after adjusting for the initial strength, and lies between the
forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which continue to perform
quite well with Jimena.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 12.1N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 12.2N 122.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 12.3N 124.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 13.6N 128.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 15.4N 133.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 16.9N 137.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 17.8N 140.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

[Yellow Evan]

28/1200 UTC 12.3N 121.5W T4.5/4.5 JIMENA -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2015 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 12:20:42 N Lon : 121:32:03 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 978.1mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 4.3

Center Temp : -64.7C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

[mrbagyo]

13E JIMENA 150828 1200 12.3N 121.5W EPAC 80 979