Global model runs discussion

[WPBWeather]

Now the 12z GFS shows a TC forming in the far Eastern Atlantic in the real long range.

I think it's time to officially ignore the GFS until it properly gets an upgrade that'll fix it, or until it can finally predict something and be right about it.

At this point I'm calling this season ALMOST officially dead! Time to start looking forward to what could be a interesting winter with the oncoming El Niño (especially for us here in the Southeast).

What El Nino is that?

Seriously? The El Niño that I'm talking about is the one forecasted to develop in the next several months. It's been advertised to develop at some point in 2014 since late last Fall. Even before then we were kind of overdue for another El Niño episode sooner or later. Even back in 2012 they originally forecasted for a below average hurricane season due to forecasters expecting an El Niño to form at some point during the 2012 season and we all know how big that busted.

Seriously, the El Nino you mentioned is nowhere to be seen. The forecasts for its developing for months now have been, to say the least, lacking. Therefore could not effect on this season's activity level. The Pro Mets need something else to hypothesize about this season's activity--or lack thereof.

[LarryWx]

Seriously, the El Nino you mentioned is nowhere to be seen. The forecasts for its developing for months now have been, to say the least, lacking. Therefore could not effect on this season's activity level. The Pro Mets need something else to hypothesize about this season's activity--or lack thereof.

Well, the SOI was down to solid El Nino levels for the eight week period surrounding and including the climo most active period. So, even though the ocean wasn't up at Nino levels, the atmosphere was Ninoish in a sense. There is a correlation between SOI and MDR activity a few weeks later.

[blp]

Guess who is back....

You gotta love the GFS which is now known as the new crazy uncle. Sorry CMC you lost your title.

[TheStormExpert]

Go home GFS your drunk! (Of course it's on my birthday October 16th).

[blp]

Holy cow I think I might take back what I said on the previous post about the GFS. Take a look at the CMC. You are still the champ CMC....

[floridasun78]

:uarrow: Go home GFS your drunk! (Of course it's on my birthday October 16th).

my on oct 15 so hope it wrong remember wilma was my birthday too

[weatherfanatic]

I am by no means a expert and agree the GFS has been less than helpful but we all (including me) thought the GFS was done with the caribbean storm yet to bring it back a day later. To me thats a sign it MAY need to be watched. This was exactly where Sandy formed and is a hotspot on October.

BTW where did the mname Ucellini come from to denote the GFS??

[weatherfanatic]

Also to note ignoring the 3 central atlantic stystems at 240 hrs there is a 1008mb low just moved into southern caribbean in the 12z CMC in the same spot as 12z GFS 1008mb that eventually develops. I will only take any of this seriously if and when at least more than one model shows it and of course when it actually starts to form which won't be known for quite some time at this point (except for guessing its totally wrong).

[Hurricaneman]

The thing I've noticed with the GFS the last several runs is that the runs that don't develop it are sending this into Central America but the runs that develop it are east of central america so if this area does become disturbed it will depend on track whether or not this will become a hurricane or fizzle over Central America or develop in the EPAC

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[weatherfanatic]

That makes sense, so I must have missed it this is actually a wave coming from the east to the west into that area? That would def explain why it can't choose between a development or not, IMO something is going to come in October. I dunno why but I just feel like October has been the excitement month except for last year (Up here anyways, 2011 Irene and Halloween snow, 2012 Sandy and Nov 7th snowstorm.

[blp]

12z Euro is showing lowering pressures in the SW Carribean starting at 144hr and then 240hr keeps some of the energy on the Atlantic side with a portion into the Pacific. So not too far off from the GFS. We will need to see if stays consistent but the trend today is for the energy to stay more on the Atlantic side versus the Pacific.

[Hammy]

Holy cow I think I might take back what I said on the previous post about the GFS. Take a look at the CMC. You are still the champ CMC....

CMC will always be the winner when it comes to phantom storms--nothing so far has topped sending a hurricane into S Florida on Christmas as it did last year.

Concerning the Euro, I'm not sure what everyone is seeing with regards to the Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

I am by no means a expert and agree the GFS has been less than helpful but we all (including me) thought the GFS was done with the caribbean storm yet to bring it back a day later. To me thats a sign it MAY need to be watched. This was exactly where Sandy formed and is a hotspot on October.

BTW where did the mname Ucellini come from to denote the GFS??

Fwiw (mainly entertainment for now) "Model Ucellini", as it has been called recently by another poster , does have the W. Caribbean development again ~10/10 along with an approach to SE FL on 10/16. M.U. has, of course, been horrible with numerous Gulf and W. Caribbean false alarms this season. Also, even the development ~10/10 on this run is still pretty far out in time. Furthermore, it has it hitting FL on 10/16. This is delayed from the Sunday runs that had it hit/near S FL on 10/13-4 and another reason to take this with a humongous grain of salt. In addition, it had next to nothing on the prior six runs. Finally, I still see no clearcut Euro support for an organized surface low forming down in the SW Caribbean around the end of its run (10/10).

Edit: 18Z M.U.: back to nada.

[WPBWeather]

Seriously, the El Nino you mentioned is nowhere to be seen. The forecasts for its developing for months now have been, to say the least, lacking. Therefore could not effect on this season's activity level. The Pro Mets need something else to hypothesize about this season's activity--or lack thereof.

Well, the SOI was down to solid El Nino levels for the eight week period surrounding and including the climo most active period. So, even though the ocean wasn't up at Nino levels, the atmosphere was Ninoish in a sense. There is a correlation between SOI and MDR activity a few weeks later.

Ninoish-sounds like being a little pregnant...

[blp]

FWIW the FIM is showing a weak low in the area now. Navgem is showing lowering pressures around 180hr. I think the GFS will jump back on during the 00z run. It is struggling on were to develop this either the Pacific or Atlantic side. The 18z develops on Pacific side. There is a strong case for favoring the Pacific side given how favorable it has been there.

[Hurricaneman]

with the GFS back on board what do the other models show in terms of possible development in the Caribbean as do they show lowering pressures or even some form of low pressure

The 12zGEM shows what seems to be low pressure near Panama
The 12zNAVGEM shows lowering pressures in the area in the Western Caribbean north of Houndoras
The 0zEuro show nada

[Blown Away]

It's back on 12z... Still fantasy land... Moves NW from this position...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[LarryWx]

I am by no means a expert and agree the GFS has been less than helpful but we all (including me) thought the GFS was done with the caribbean storm yet to bring it back a day later. To me thats a sign it MAY need to be watched. This was exactly where Sandy formed and is a hotspot on October.

BTW where did the mname Ucellini come from to denote the GFS??

Fwiw (mainly entertainment for now) "Model Ucellini", as it has been called recently by another poster , does have the W. Caribbean development again ~10/10 along with an approach to SE FL on 10/16. M.U. has, of course, been horrible with numerous Gulf and W. Caribbean false alarms this season. Also, even the development ~10/10 on this run is still pretty far out in time. Furthermore, it has it hitting FL on 10/16. This is delayed from the Sunday runs that had it hit/near S FL on 10/13-4 and another reason to take this with a humongous grain of salt. In addition, it had next to nothing on the prior six runs. Finally, I still see no clearcut Euro support for an organized surface low forming down in the SW Caribbean around the end of its run (10/10).

Edit: 18Z M.U.: back to nada.

For the record and entertainment:

1) The 0Z GFS had nada just like yesterday's 18Z.

2) The 6Z GFS had a weak low form in the SW Caribbean 10/10 and then a piece of that energy quickly moved to FL 10/14 (weak low) while leaving the other piece in the NW Caribbean for the rest of the run (another weak low).

3) The 12Z GFS has a low form ~10/11 in the SW Caribbean that becomes a hurricane ~10/14 and only moves very slowly NW to just south of western Cuba 10/17 (end of run). So, compared to the Sunday GFS runs that showed something, the TC on this run is a good 4-6 days behind on movement (not genesis) based on it still being in the NW Caribbean on 10/17. This among other things is a reason to give very low credibility to this run.

Bottom line: I continue to take these GFS runs with a gigantic grain of salt for obvious reasons including no Euro support and timing delays in the modeled movement. If some runs still show something, say, about 4-5 days from now, I'd take then a little more seriously, especially if the Euro changes and gives some support. However, the smart money is still very likely on these being more phantom storm runs.

[wxman57]

I'm sure that the GFS is right about the hurricane in the Caribbean at 384 hrs THIS time!

[floridasun78]

I am by no means a expert and agree the GFS has been less than helpful but we all (including me) thought the GFS was done with the caribbean storm yet to bring it back a day later. To me thats a sign it MAY need to be watched. This was exactly where Sandy formed and is a hotspot on October.

BTW where did the mname Ucellini come from to denote the GFS??

Fwiw (mainly entertainment for now) "Model Ucellini", as it has been called recently by another poster , does have the W. Caribbean development again ~10/10 along with an approach to SE FL on 10/16. M.U. has, of course, been horrible with numerous Gulf and W. Caribbean false alarms this season. Also, even the development ~10/10 on this run is still pretty far out in time. Furthermore, it has it hitting FL on 10/16. This is delayed from the Sunday runs that had it hit/near S FL on 10/13-4 and another reason to take this with a humongous grain of salt. In addition, it had next to nothing on the prior six runs. Finally, I still see no clearcut Euro support for an organized surface low forming down in the SW Caribbean around the end of its run (10/10).

Edit: 18Z M.U.: back to nada.

For the record and entertainment:

1) The 0Z GFS had nada just like yesterday's 18Z.

2) The 6Z GFS had a weak low form in the SW Caribbean 10/10 and then a piece of that energy quickly moved to FL 10/14 (weak low) while leaving the other piece in the NW Caribbean for the rest of the run (another weak low).

3) The 12Z GFS has a low form ~10/11 in the SW Caribbean that becomes a hurricane ~10/14 and only moves very slowly NW to just south of western Cuba 10/17 (end of run). So, compared to the Sunday GFS runs that showed something, the TC on this run is a good 4-6 days behind on movement (not genesis) based on it still being in the NW Caribbean on 10/17. This among other things is a reason to give very low credibility to this run.

Bottom line: I continue to take these GFS runs with a gigantic grain of salt for obvious reasons including no Euro support and timing delays in the modeled movement. If some runs still show something, say, about 4-5 days from now, I'd take then a little more seriously, especially if the Euro changes and gives some support. However, the smart money is still very likely on these being more phantom storm runs.

go you think gfs maybe upgrade doing off season so be better in 2015???