Global model runs discussion

[blp]

with the GFS back on board what do the other models show in terms of possible development in the Caribbean as do they show lowering pressures or even some form of low pressure

The 12zGEM shows what seems to be low pressure near Panama
The 12zNAVGEM shows lowering pressures in the area in the Western Caribbean north of Houndoras
The 0zEuro show nada

The FIM is still onboard with weak development as of the 06z. 12z not in yet.

[blp]

What is going on here with this graphic. Is it broken? I have not seen it climb above climo during the peak months in years.

[LarryWx]

go you think gfs maybe upgrade doing off season so be better in 2015???

floridasun78,
I have no idea if they're planning to address these phantom TC's that soon. As I recall, major modifications to fix things can take several years, unfortunately. I do still distinctly remember the major modification that was made operational on 5/15/01 (back when the GFS was the MRF/AVN). Prior to that the number of phantom TC's was laughable and a good bit worse than today's GFS based on my recollection, believe it or not. The reason for this was then deemed to have something to do with the model having a warm bias (more warmth meant too many TC's). The 5/15/01 mod. cooled the model considerably. The result was a successfully large reduction in the number of false TC's. However, the moderate warm bias turned into a strong cold bias. The following winter (01-02) is infamous for the MRF/AVN having many runs showing extreme cold in much of the E US. Several runs had near all-time record cold for the SE US. I even remember JB falling for this cold bias on a number of occasions. It turned out that that winter was pretty mild in most of the E US!

[AJC3]

The graphic isn't broken. The MDR, on the other hand, is.

[lovingseason2013]

Just had to chime in...MILD??!?!?! Im in Pensacola and we had 2 inches of ice and snow, there was day it only reached 27º here, that is a record low and I know my friends in Baltimore and Cincinnati would also laugh at that statement. I think the models were fairly accurate on temps.

[SeGaBob]

Seriously, the El Nino you mentioned is nowhere to be seen. The forecasts for its developing for months now have been, to say the least, lacking. Therefore could not effect on this season's activity level. The Pro Mets need something else to hypothesize about this season's activity--or lack thereof.

Well, the SOI was down to solid El Nino levels for the eight week period surrounding and including the climo most active period. So, even though the ocean wasn't up at Nino levels, the atmosphere was Ninoish in a sense. There is a correlation between SOI and MDR activity a few weeks later.

Ninoish-sounds like being a little pregnant...

I think WPBWeather will be eating his words in a couple of months... plenty of evidence to support at least a weak El Nino. Some of the models showed a temporary lull in development and then picking back up also...

[WPBWeather]

Ninoish-sounds like being a little pregnant...

I think WPBWeather will be eating his words in a couple of months... plenty of evidence to support at least a weak El Nino. Some of the models showed a temporary lull in development and then picking back up also...

I have my salt and pepper ready! But the 2014 el nino is a bust. Pro Mets and others need to go back to the drawing board to figure out what is really happening with our weather.

[Yellow Evan]

But the 2014 el nino is a bust.

Why are you so sure? The MEI rankings beg to differ.

[Dean4Storms]

Interesting 00z run of the ECM EPS Control run at 500mb Anom. 216hr.
Lowering pressure over the Carib Sea and Florida Straits, retreating Ridge over the East and developing Trough dropping into central US from Canada. Reminds me of Sandy setup.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it possible to show a graphic? Thanks!

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: Is it possible to show a graphic? Thanks!

Wish I could, saw this on model graphics at Weatherbell.com

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: Is it possible to show a graphic? Thanks!

This isn't as graphic but shows the lower pressure over Florida extending down into the Carib. Sea....

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014100200&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=240

[blp]

Despite the GFS dropping the idea of development the last two runs. I still think there will be a window of opportunity and I believe that first big front that the models are forecasting to sweap through the southeast will help kick things in motion by providing enhanced outflow in the region. The FIM is much more agressive and the NAVGEM shows a little more activity. The big issue is going to be land interaction and if the Pacific steals the energy which is very possible.

[Alyono]

Model Uccelleni indicates another EPAC storm

[weatherfanatic]

Dean, I agree the second half of October is eerily the same as Sandy in 2012. If this storm does come to fruitation and moves north on east coast it could spell trouble. Although I cannot post from weatherbell.com (well I could but copyrights forbid me) some of the ensembles have been showing a major hurricane for the East coast, but not enough to convince me and they are all over the place in terms of times. We will just have to wait and see where this possible development happens and if the models can figure out if it will be in deep caribbean or pacific as discussed by others. Even though the model lost it today, the area still has lowering pressures and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes back at 12z which is shortly. What is suspect to me of this possibly being a phantom storm is now it is about 8 days away from when it was originally supposed to start and the time keeps getting pushed back, which is what happened in May and June.

[jlauderdal]

Model Uccelleni indicates another EPAC storm

a powerful Atlantic system cant be far behind with MU

[WPBWeather]

But the 2014 el nino is a bust.

Why are you so sure? The MEI rankings beg to differ.

Not really. They (MEI) seem to be all over the place. Its hard to understand why we have not had and still, today, do not have an el nino, but we should face the facts that the forecasts for one in 2014 have been VERY wrong.

[TheStormExpert]

But the 2014 el nino is a bust.

Why are you so sure? The MEI rankings beg to differ.

Not really. They (MEI) seem to be all over the place. Its hard to understand why we have not had and still, today, do not have an el nino, but we should face the facts that the forecasts for one in 2014 have been VERY wrong.

If they were wrong than we should've seen more storms at this point on in the season. So obviously they are not that wrong.

[WPBWeather]

If they were wrong than we should've seen more storms at this point on in the season. So obviously they are not that wrong.[/quote]

That's not the point. There has been no el nino--can't blame it for storms or no storms up until now.

[Hurricaneman]

there were only 4 named systems in 1983 and no el nino so sometimes El Nino isn't the only factor in a hurricane season