EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THREE EP032015 06/11/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 50 62 71 77 79 75 71 66 55
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 50 62 71 77 79 75 71 66 55
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 45 53 60 67 72 77 81 84 85
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 15 14 15 14 12 12 8 13 13 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 6 7 11 10 6 5 2 1 1
SHEAR DIR 48 52 58 56 49 60 52 52 52 38 72 88 85
SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 160 159 158 162 162 164 165 164 161 160 160
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 8 10 8 10 9 11 8 8
700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 73 73 75 73 74 72 67 63 60 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 17 18 20 19 17 14 12 5
850 MB ENV VOR 57 55 40 34 41 42 64 53 68 44 64 55 37
200 MB DIV 80 82 96 112 126 107 76 70 104 60 38 47 58
700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 3 1 3 0 0 -1 0
LAND (KM) 406 397 389 366 343 260 211 156 96 80 112 113 145
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6
LONG(DEG W) 99.4 99.8 100.2 100.2 100.3 99.8 99.6 99.5 99.5 100.3 101.8 103.3 104.6
STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 8 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 41 42 42 43 44 51 54 56 58 42 27 17 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 9. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 32. 41. 47. 49. 45. 41. 36. 25.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

18z HWRF still stuck on an NNE track into central Oaxaca due to a trough over the SE US and a break between two ridges.

[weathernerdguy]

Why does this storm look like Hurricane Marie from last year?

[Yellow Evan]

Why does this storm look like Hurricane Marie from last year?

Both have excellent outflow channels.

Not saying it will happen, but if shear is as low as I think it could be, we could have a Cat 4/5 assuming if and only if the core of this hurricane can stay offshore. For those of you who can remember, about 10 years ago, John 06 was able to blow up into a Cat 4 despite being very very close to the coast, so pretty much the core has to stay offshore for it to bomb out.

However, this is a very complex forecast, so a lot can go wrong. A distinct possibility though.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks a bit elongated to me. I'd retain at 30 actually.

[Yellow Evan]

2015JUN11 021500 2.5 1006.8 35.0 2.5 2.7 4.0 0.2T/hour OFF OFF -41.86 -45.12 CRVBND N/A N/A 12.74 99.08 FCST GOES13 31.6

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

The convective pattern associated with Tropical Depression
Three-E is gradually becoming better organized. However, recent
microwave imagery and data from the Rapidscat scatterometer on the
International Space Station suggest that the low-level circulation
is somewhat disorganized, being elongated from west-northwest to
east-southeast and possibly having multiple vorticity centers.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 30 kt
respectively. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on these
estimates and a lack of reliable tropical-storm wind reports from
the scatterometer.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9. The depression
is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico. This
feature is forecast to weaken during the next 72 hours as a large
mid to upper-level trough forms over the Gulf of Mexico. This
should cause the cyclone to turn toward the north and north-
northeast. While the track guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there are some important differences in the models. The
Canadian, NAVGEM, and UKMET models show a fast enough forward motion
that the cyclone makes landfall in southern Mexico. The latest GFS
run also takes the system close to the coast, but keeps it offshore
at 72 hours. The ECMWF keeps the system farther offshore during
this time. After 72 hours, the ridge over Mexico is forecast to
build, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn west-
northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico if it is still
offshore. The new forecast track is west of the previous track
based on the initial position and motion, and as a result it is
farther from the coast of Mexico. However, there is low confidence
in how close the center will actually get to the coast.

The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface
temperatures and light vertical wind shear during the next 48 hours,
which favors steady intensification. The intensity forecast calls
for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less and a
hurricane in about 48 hours. After that, a combination of northerly
shear and possible land interaction suggests that a slower rate of
intensification is likely. The new intensity forecast is similar to
the intensity consensus during the first 48 hours and in best
agreement with the LGEM model after that time. An alternative
forecast scenario is that the cyclone makes landfall in southern
Mexico, which would lead to rapid dissipation over the mountains of
that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 12.9N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 13.2N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 13.7N 100.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 14.7N 99.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 15.5N 99.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Analog wise, this is quite interesting. As I've said on here, multi-year El Ninos can sometimes have landfalls in July and early August, against climo, especially in Michoacán.

And no surprise that this is reflected in my analogs

.

[Yellow Evan]

Center fix looks right

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2015 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 12:50:27 N Lon : 99:37:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1008.8mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0

Center Temp : -37.4C Cloud Region Temp : -51.7C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.68 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 13:26:23 N Lon: 100:01:47 W

[Yellow Evan]

http://i60.tinypic.com/23j6agk.png

18z HWRF still stuck on an NNE track into central Oaxaca due to a trough over the SE US and a break between two ridges.

http://imageshack.com/a/img537/8707/pTQRT9.png
EC looks like there's a weakness in the ridging between both highs @ the 500mb level its not a trough induced weakness its a dip in the ridging in between them. The system (may) track N.to..NNE @that weakness and onto the SCM.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS product

Models have trended W, as they show a little weaker of a ridge. The break in between the two ridges is a trough, which doesn't look particularly well defined.

[zeehag]

whose idea was it to make it go over my sleepinghead.... not coool..please push it much more away from my land space. thankyou.

Where are you?

isla navidad, colima, mx. lat 19.1 north long 104.5 west......in a boat in a marina.....

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS big shift west and stronger.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2015 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 12:55:03 N Lon : 99:43:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.4mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 2.9

Center Temp : -36.2C Cloud Region Temp : -47.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

[Yellow Evan]

00z end of the run @54hrs

The run is out till seven days.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pac_30.png

[Yellow Evan]

Oh, you're looking at the CMC. That explains why I was confused.

Sorry.

The link I posted is the same system though. Near Baja.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2015 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 13:00:19 N Lon : 99:50:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1008.0mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.4 2.4

Center Temp : -25.0C Cloud Region Temp : -34.5C

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 110604
TCSENP

A. 03E (NONAME)

B. 11/0545Z

C. 13.0N

D. 100.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...Dt=2.5 BASED ON .4 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm

Interesting.


EP, 03, 2015061106, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1000W, 30, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,

Here's why:

EP, 03, 201506110330, 31, ASCT, CI, , 1270N, 9960W, , 3, 27, 3, , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , 3, , , , NHC, JPC, , , , , , , , , ASCT,

[Yellow Evan]

That RapidScat pass just seems messed up, as it shows a very odd structure. NHC isn't factoring it in. The ASCAT pass had only 27 knt winds, so 30 knts seems like a good estimate.

[Yellow Evan]

Not trying to sound rude, but this is why this is not a TS.

EP, 03, 201506110330, 31, ASCT, CI, , 1270N, 9960W, , 3, 27, 3, , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , 3, , , , NHC, JPC, , , , , , , , , ASCT, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 3,

EP, 03, 201506110415, 31, ASCT, CI, , 1290N, 9970W, , 3, 28, 3, , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , 3, , , , NHC, JPC, , , , , , , , , ASCT, ,

Basically that says if I'm reading it right, there are 27-28 knt winds in an ASCAT pass.