EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 130538
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...DOLORES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.5 West. Dolores is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Dolores should begin to move away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is
expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
tonight through Monday.

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Dolores are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the southwestern
coast of Mexico from the state of Oaxaca to Nayarit, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to affect the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico during the next few
days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 2015071306, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1045W, 55, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 50, 30, 100, 1010, 120, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOLORES, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
400 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

Dolores' convective cloud pattern has continued to improve overnight
with a distinct CDO now evident along with a large curved band
in the eastern semicircle. In addition, a warm spot has recently
appeared near the center of the CDO, a possible precursor to the
development of an eye. The ship Asia Excellence, call sign C6AX5,
traversed the northeastern quadrant during the past several hours
and reported winds of 55 kt. Based on that report and a UW-CIMSS ADT
intensity estimate of T3.7/59 kt, the intensity of Dolores has been
increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt, and is based on continuity
with the previous forecast and limited microwave fix data. The NHC
model guidance is in decent agreement on Dolores maintaining a
west-northwestward motion along with a decrease in forward speed
through the forecast period as a strong ridge to its north holds
steady. Some spread in the models occurs after 48 hours due to
differences in how they handle the large trough along the U.S. west
coast and how much it erodes the western portion of the ridge over
the U.S. desert southwest and northwestern Mexico. The reliable
ECMWF and GFS global models, and the regional HWRF model, keep the
ridge intact across Baja California, and the official track
forecast follows this scenario by keeping Dolores well to the south
and southwest of Baja California. The latest NHC forecast lies
close to a blend of those three model tracks.

Dolores is expected to remain over SSTs greater than 28C for the
next 48 hours or so, during which time the deep-layer vertical
shear is expected to gradually weaken, especially after 24 hours
when the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt. This
combination, along with a moist mid-level environment, should allow
for Dolores to continue to strengthen into a significant hurricane.
Around 96-120 hours, Dolores is forecast to move over SSTs less
than 26C, which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the trend
of the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which essentially brings Dolores
to major hurricane status by 48-72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.6N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 16.9N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 17.1N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 17.4N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 17.9N 109.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.2N 111.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 21.8N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Has about 72-84 hours, but still has to get through the worst of the shear. So far the shear is not affecting it much.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DOLORES EP052015 07/13/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 68 75 89 91 95 99 94 91 84 79
V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 68 75 89 91 95 99 94 91 84 79
V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 60 63 66 74 83 90 93 90 84 76 67
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 12 9 4 7 6 6 6 9 8 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 268 280 306 310 339 53 7 50 87 138 77 99 63
SST (C) 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.4 27.6 26.9 26.1 25.5 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 171 168 165 164 163 159 153 147 139 132 123 117 108
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 80 77 76 74 75 73 70 69 67 61 60 58 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 24 26 30 30 32 37 37 38 36 35
850 MB ENV VOR 2 10 12 9 11 33 40 58 70 87 88 102 97
200 MB DIV 77 88 92 71 83 71 43 70 50 53 2 7 -4
700-850 TADV 7 8 3 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 -3
LAND (KM) 275 297 330 356 386 431 479 450 396 416 483 518 598
LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.3
LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.3 107.0 107.5 107.9 108.8 109.7 110.7 111.7 113.0 114.6 116.0 117.5
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 38 38 37 35 32 23 18 13 7 1 8 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 16. 19. 26. 27. 29. 25. 24.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 20. 34. 36. 40. 44. 39. 36. 29. 24.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2015 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 17:01:18 N Lon : 105:50:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.5 4.5

Center Temp : -76.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

I'd go 60 since tAFB/SAB are T3.5.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2015

Dolores is gradually intensifying. The cyclone is maintaining a
symmetric and very cold-topped central dense overcast, with the
center fully underneath the deepest convection. Very recently the
cyclone has also shed its outer bands while the inner core has
increased in organization. The outflow remains somewhat restricted
to the west, however, and there still is some evidence of west-
northwesterly shear as a result of an upper-level trough to the
northwest. Dvorak classifications were T3.5/55 kt from both TAFB and
SAB at 1200 UTC. Since that time, there has been some further
increase in organization, and thus the initial intensity is set to
60 kt.

The initial motion estimate continues to be a steady 295/11. Dolores
should continue to be steered west-northwestward by a subtropical
ridge over the south-central United States during the next couple of
days. As the cyclone approaches the western periphery of this ridge,
the forward motion should decrease and the heading should become
west-northwestward to northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that
time, the ridge should rebuild somewhat to the northeast, which
should result in a slightly faster forward speed late in the
forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF model solutions diverge
considerably after 72 hours, owing to the strength of the
subtropical ridge. The official forecast is a little right of the
previous one through 36 hours and very close to the multi-model
consensus after that time since the strength of the subtropical
ridge is still uncertain late in the forecast period.

Although environmental thermodynamics are quite conducive for
intensification, global models continue to show a persistent west-
northwesterly shear over Dolores during the next 24 hours. The
shear, however, has not been enough to impede strengthening, with
the cyclone developing at about the standard T-number/day
climatological average. SHIPS model output indicates a decrease in
shear in about 36 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a major
hurricane not long after that time. With decreasing SSTs and a
drier and more stable atmosphere along Dolores' path after 96
hours, the cyclone is forecast to gradually spin down. Ultimately,
the rate of decay will depend on how quickly Dolores gains latitude
late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is
generally above the multi-model consensus and closest to SHIPS model
output.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 17.1N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 18.1N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.4N 109.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 19.7N 112.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 21.2N 115.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.7N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

FYI, NHC is doing a very good job with this storm.

Anyhow,

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2015 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 17:08:19 N Lon : 106:05:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.6 4.6

Center Temp : -76.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Yellow Evan]

13/1745 UTC 17.1N 106.3W T4.0/4.0 DOLORES -- East Pacific

65 knots? Hard not to.

[Yellow Evan]

An eye is trying to form on VIS, and it may be nearing 70 knots, even though the storm has become a little less organized. Honestly, this looks much better than I thought it would today and that is the fact the shear was lower than it is suppose to be today has allowed for continued deepening, though shear right now is preventing ti from bombing out. The next step form here on out is for it to build a good inner core with a closed eyewall. I will say that this is poised to become a beautiful hurricane, since it currently has very cold cloud tops and a very very good moisture envelope and ok but not great outflow channels. Wind shear could reach near 0 knots in a few days, which screams for intensification. I'd be incline to think it would EI in that situation, but SST's are only going to be near 27C and since it is somewhat close to the EPAC SST gradient (Which is more north and not as prominent and sharp as normal due to the record SST's and +PDO), it'd be hard for thick convection to persist, hence I will not forecast Cat 5 (and if it wants to do so, probs needs to do so over 27-28C SST's, but with 0 knots of shear, who knows?), but Cat 3/4 looks like a really good bet and Cat 2 is child's play for it.

ATCF has this a hurricane:

EP, 05, 2015071318, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1063W, 65, 991, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 150, 20, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, DOLORES, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

[Yellow Evan]

Surprised at little posts.

But,

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2015 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 17:12:57 N Lon : 106:22:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 980.6mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.7 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -39.4C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015

Dolores is strengthening. Visible satellite imagery shows the
inner core of the cyclone becoming better organized, and a ragged
eye has become evident during the past few hours. There is also
a long curved band wrapping entirely around the circulation. The
upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the west, likely
the result of a persistent west-northwesterly flow associated with
a trough to the northwest. A Dvorak classification of T4.0 from
SAB and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.5 are used to raise the initial
intensity to 65 kt.

Recent fixes suggest that Dolores' forward speed has decreased
considerably since this morning, and the initial motion estimate is
295/08. Dolores is about to reach the western edge of a subtropical
ridge over the south-central United States, which should result in
continued west-northwestward motion but at an even slower forward
speed. The subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild some in 48 to
72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFS are still at odds on exactly how
much. These models and the remaining model suite have track
solutions that are significantly divergent late in the period,
and the official track forecast has been adjusted close to the
multi-model consensus, which is nearly midway between the ECWMF and
GFS. The track forecast has also been slowed down throughout the
forecast period, following the trends of the latest guidance.

Nearly optimal thermodynamic parameters such as sea surface
temperatures of 29-30 deg C and high tropospheric moisture in the
near-storm environment should promote further strengthening. Only
some west-northwesterly shear could slow the rate of intensification
during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Dolores seems
poised to reach major hurricane strength and could potentially
intensify more than forecast as a result of the very conducive
environmental factors. A gradual spin-down of the vortex is
forecast after 72 hours once the cyclone reaches cooler waters
and a drier and more stable atmosphere. The statistical guidance
has responded to the current intensification and shows Dolores
reaching a peak intensity of around 105 kt in 48-72 hours, and the
official forecast follows suit. The official forecast continues to
be above the multi-model intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.5N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 18.1N 108.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.8N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 22.2N 118.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Siker]

18z GFS back to the California route.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 2015071400, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1067W, 65, 991, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOLORES, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015

After the strengthening episode noted earlier today, the intensity
trend has, at least temporarily, leveled off. The cloud pattern
has not become significantly better organized, and Dvorak T-numbers
have not increased, over the past several hours. Thus the current
intensity estimate is held at 65 kt. The dynamical guidance calls
for decreasing shear and the cyclone should continue to traverse a
very warm ocean during the next 48 hours. So, although Dolores has
not been strengthening in the short term, there remains a high
likelihood for a significant increase in intensity over the next
couple of days. The official wind speed forecast, like the
previous one, calls for the system to become a major hurricane
by Wednesday. This is similar to the latest LGEM model prediction.

Dolores has slowed down some more, and is moving a little to the
left of its earlier heading. Satellite fixes yield a motion
estimate of 285/05 kt. The slow forward speed should continue as
Dolores moves near the periphery of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge
to its north. Little change has been made to the previous track
forecast, and this official forecast is near the southern side of
the dynamical track guidance suite. This is closest to the
latest ECMWF prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 17.2N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 17.5N 107.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.9N 108.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.4N 109.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 110.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 20.2N 112.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[CaliforniaResident]

18z GFS back to the California route.

Any chance she could make it to the San Diego area as a minimal TS?

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS back to the California route.

Any chance she could make it to the San Diego area as a minimal TS?

No.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks terrible. Flat out terrible.

[Kingarabian]

Looks terrible. Flat out terrible.

Took a look at it in the morning and convection looked to shallow for it to be something special.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks terrible. Flat out terrible.

Took a look at it in the morning and convection looked to shallow for it to be something special.

Agreed there's been quite a bit of improvement since then. Probs 65-70 knots. It has that look and yes I still agree it will become something potent and so far has overpreformed. The CDO right now has sub- -80C cloud tops.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 2015071406, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1072W, 70, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOLORES, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

70 knt is good for now. NHC is being a little more bullish wit this than normal, which is fine.