Global model runs discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

As we could see the early runs on Cristabol hitting Texas and now out to sea. Early runs are just a guidance of something possibly developing. Track is a crap shoot.

[perk]

based on the GFS it will quickly develop and rapidly bebop north. the advertised NW atlantic ridge isnt going to materialize

delete

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is loaded on long range.

[Hammy]

I'd give a good 50/50 personally on the first wave developing considering it's within the <192 hour period if other models pick up on it, considering the GFS has been relatively well behaved compared to last year+June as far as the short-term phantom storms go.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops just east of Belize and after it moves thru Yucatan turns into a TS and moves into Mexico but is at long range.

[stormlover2013]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

looks like the gom could be busy the next couple of weeks, potential could be there

[BigA]

It's interesting, though complete speculation at this point, that the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all show a similar setup for Western GOM development in the 8-10 day period. What looks to happen is that some vorticty from 97L accelerates westward ahead of the main vorticty of 97L. This disturbance then combines with other vorticity near the Yucatan and moves toward into the Western GOM.

Obviously this is just one model run, and things will likely change substantially in upcoming runs. Nevertheless, it is intriguing that three different models show a similar setup in the fairly long range.

[stormlover2013]

its intriguing that EURO the best model in my book is showing a storm by corpus by next tues and the wave next thurs in entering gulf

[tolakram]

12Z Euro, 216 hours out

[TheStormExpert]

Is that 97L?

[Wx_Warrior]

Now this will be the one to keep an eye on.

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: Is that 97L?

No. It starts out of the SW Caribbean Sea...crosses the Yucatan Peninsula heading generally NW towards the NW Gulf. Still a long way out, but a stout Kelvin wave is progressing across the Central Pacific and the Western Caribbean as well as the Gulf have been untouched all year and we are near that typical tropical 'prime time' for the Western Atlantic Basin.

[BigA]

:uarrow: Is that 97L?

I don't think so. In the image above, 97L is the wave moving through the Florida straights at 216 hours. However, the models suggest that a piece of 97L may move ahead of the main part of 97L and contribute to development in the Western Caribbean/GOM (if I am interpreting them correctly). So it may be related to 97L.

However, looking at the runs closely, I'm not convinced that 97L plays any role in the modeled development.

[wxman57]

From what I can see on the high-res Euro we get, it develops something coming out of the SW Caribbean this coming weekend and moves it into the Texas coast next Wednesday. Something to watch for.

[gatorcane]

Could this WGOM development stem from the area of disturbed weather heading west just west of the Southern Leewards which is what gets into the SW Carib then heads NW?

[tolakram]

Could this WGOM development stem from the area of disturbed weather heading west just west of the Southern Leewards which is what gets into the SW Carib then heads NW?

Yes, according to the Euro this current blowup will drift south and then west.

[N2FSU]

00Z GFS +204

[N2FSU]

+252

[N2FSU]

+288

[tolakram]

I'm going to start posting links to the individual wave threads in here so we can track them in the future.

The GFS develops a wave off of Africa at 96 hours, thread is here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116663&hilit=