Global model runs discussion

#8001 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:10 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/index.html

caneman · #8002 Postby **caneman** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:41 pm

I think you have to say score one for GFS and other models if this bears out. Nothing on the Euro. YOu can almost see a system trying to form now.

caneman · #8003 Postby **caneman** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:43 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: I'll believe it when the Euro shows it which will probably never happen.

Euro is not the be all end all. It looks as if the others models may be right on the this one. Seems to be something trying to form now.

#8004 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:52 pm

#8005 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:25 pm

caneman wrote:It looks as if the others models may be right on the this one. Seems to be something trying to form now.

Where? the NHC hasn't even mentioned anything?

#8006 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:52 pm

Some of the GFS ensembles show pretty potent tc down in sw Caribbean. With favorable mjo here it bears some watching.

#8007 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 5:41 pm

18Z GFS has the NW Caribbean storm again. Two runs in a row so far

#8008 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS has the NW Caribbean storm again. Two runs in a row so far

Maybe we'll get to nov 30 with consecutive runs this time.

#8009 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:34 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS has the NW Caribbean storm again. Two runs in a row so far

Maybe we'll get to nov 30 with consecutive runs this time.

#8010 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:55 pm

Another 2 dozen runs to go... :na:

caneman · #8011 Postby **caneman** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 2:38 am

Eventually even a blind squirrel gets a nut right?

#8012 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:04 am

caneman wrote:Eventually even a blind squirrel gets a nut right?

one of these times gfs will be right but it wont be because its so good, it will be because its lucky

#8013 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:08 am

4 runs in a row. 06Z GFS below. Also include 00Z ECMWF shows lower MSLP anomalies in the NW Caribbean (second image) and NAVGEM (bottom image):

06Z NAVGEM showing development sooner:

boca · #8014 Postby **boca** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:31 am

Theirs nothing down there to look at the GFS is out to lunch

HURRICANELONNY · #8015 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:53 am

I finally figured out the GFS. Give Florida Something! :roll:

boca · #8016 Postby **boca** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:47 am

Now that's funny

Miami Storm Tracker · #8017 Postby **Miami Storm Tracker** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:02 am

I agree there is not really anything so to speak that you would say ok maybe. But if you watch a couple of the model runs, there seems to be a piece of energy lifting north from the Pacific. If that energy makes it over then maybe there is a chance.

#8018 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 1:08 pm

12Z GFS pushes out the development timeframe and is now developing in the SW Caribbean. Looks like an "MU special."

Hammy · #8019 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:00 pm

Latest Euro run is showing something fairly tight in the NE Atlantic in about eight days, possibly a subtropical system or hinting that 91L may develop later.

CourierPR · #8020 Postby **CourierPR** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:06 pm

boca wrote:Theirs nothing down there to look at the GFS is out to lunch

Their is some disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean.

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