JTWC:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 113.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. THIS AREA IS NOT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (JANGMI), WHICH CLEARLY DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN
BORNEO, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED
AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012119Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO
THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE
INDICATES A DISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST REVEAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS, PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF THE ADJACENT NORTHEAST SURGE
EVENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
