WPAC: MEKKHALA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

The curse of Haiyan continues with Mekkhala for tacloban as it shortens the trip of the Pope...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I really doubt JMA's latest position. The microwave shows an eye-like feature several miles away from the actual center, which is inching the town of Hernani, Eastern Samar.

[euro6208]

Very organized with excellent outflow although it's convection has weakened...

ADT holding steady at 4.7 = 82.2 knots...

Looks like landfall within the next 3 hours...

[euro6208]

Latest radar!

Eyewall over Borongan City and Samar Island!

[ManilaTC]

I really doubt JMA's latest position. The microwave shows an eye-like feature several miles away from the actual center, which is inching the town of Hernani, Eastern Samar.

Check the radar. Its almost at the coast near Borongan. The center is north of that dot

[euro6208]

Interesting case

Comparing Typhoon Mekkhala to *Tropical Storm Jangmi* which was never upgraded and it does look better than Mekkhala...

Jangmi, December 2014




Mekkhala so far

[ejeraldmc]

Eye?

[ManilaTC]

Eye?

Hell Yeah!

[euro6208]

Eye?

Hell Yeah!

Huge hot tower just off the samar coast...

Hot towers indicate a strengthening system or even explosive strengthening. Everything is there, sst, outflow and low shear but good thing this is about to make landfall or else, it would likely be way stronger...

[euro6208]

Mekkhala battering Samar.

[euro6208]

Remains a category 1 70 knots. Center fix is 12.0 125.7 just off the coast of Samar.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION JUST EAST OF SAMAR IS BASED ON THE MSI
LOOP AND A 170523Z N-19 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS MAINTAINED DUE TO DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN-PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM MOTION AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MEKKHALA WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR. AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, EXPECT THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN
PHILIPPINES TO CAUSE TY 01W TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT THIS DECAY
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE BICOL REGION AND THEN
SOUTH OF CALABARZON, WITH THE SYSTEM LESS THAN STORM FORCE STRENGTH
BY THE TIME IT REACHES MANILA. TY MEKKHALA WILL BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 72. THERE
REMAINS TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH LEADS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The center is 11.8N 125.4E, and has made landfall over Sulat-San Julian Area over Eastern Samar.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

May have made landfall farther south

[dexterlabio]

The center is 11.8N 125.4E, and has made landfall over Sulat-San Julian Area over Eastern Samar.

what agency is reporting that coordinates?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The center is 11.8N 125.4E, and has made landfall over Sulat-San Julian Area over Eastern Samar.

what agency is reporting that coordinates?

Just analysis done by myself.. Based on the "eye" feature

[xtyphooncyclonex]

STS 1501 (MEKKHALA)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 17 January 2015

<Analyses at 17/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°10'(12.2°)
E125°40'(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 17/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 18/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50'(13.8°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°55'(14.9°)
E120°35'(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

[euro6208]

Tropical storm force winds in pink circles...

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 170919

A. TYPHOON 01W (MEKKHALA)

B. 17/0901Z

C. 12.42N

D. 125.23E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0523Z 12.07N 125.70E MMHS


LONG

TXPQ22 KNES 170923
TCSWNP

A. 01W (MEKKHALA)

B. 17/0832Z

C. 12.1N

D. 125.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. OVERLAND

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE COAST OF SAMAR, WHICH
IS CONFIRMED BY A TIMELY 0833Z SSMIS PASS. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
ONLY A SMALL ISOLATED AREA OF COLD TOPS CENTERED 80 KM SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND
THE FORECAST TREK OVER LAND, THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS THE
SYSTEM REDEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[dexterlabio]

All agencies are reporting the center northeast of Samar island. Water vapor, microwave plus the most recent visible satellite imagery show to me at least that the center is indeed near that area.