SIO: DIAMONDRA - Post-Tropical

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97S INVEST 150123 0600 15.5S 79.3E SHEM 15 1010


GFS in about 5 days time.

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97S INVEST 150124 0600 10.4S 87.8E SHEM 20 1007


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Saturday 24 January 2015
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 27 January 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low lies near 12S 89E, close to the boundary of the Western Region. This
system is expected to move south westwards further away from the Western Region
over the weekend. There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and
none are expected to develop over the next three days.

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97S INVEST 150124 1200 11.2S 87.4E SHEM 20 1007

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ZCZC 909
WTIO30 FMEE 260658
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7
2.A POSITION 2015/01/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 79.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/26 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/01/27 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/01/27 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/28 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/28 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/01/29 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/30 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=1.5
METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN OBVIOUS IMPROVING CLOUD
PATTERN WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE 25/0930Z.
0434Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS AT 20KT ALL AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND WINDS UP TO 25KT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
SECTORS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCTIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPERIENCING AN EFFICIENT LOW LEVELS INFLOWS ON
THE BOTH SIDES, A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD
DIVERGENCE EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TO
TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL BELT.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE GRADUAL WESTERLY VWS INCREASE SHOULD LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT.
LAST ECMWF ENSEMBLE COMPUTES 90 PER CENT PROBABILITY TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STAGE FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD DEEPEN MORE WESTERN WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT DAYS AND HIGH LEVELS RESPECTIVE INFLUENCES ONE TO THE
OTHER ONE (INDUCED VWS) REMAIN DIFFICULT TO QUALIFY BY THAT TIME.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=
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97S INVEST 150126 0600 16.2S 79.9E SHEM 25 1004

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08S EIGHT 150127 0600 18.1S 77.9E SHEM 45 989

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08S EIGHT 150127 1200 18.4S 77.5E SHEM 45 989

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08S DIAMONDRA 150128 0000 19.0S 77.8E SHEM 45 989

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ZCZC 132
WTIO30 FMEE 280107
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DIAMONDRA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 77.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 440 SE: 460 SW: 350 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 290 SE: 290 SW: 220 NW: 310
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/28 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/29 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/29 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/30 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/30 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/31 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/01 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/02/02 00 UTC: 31.7 S / 91.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=3.0
EXPERIENCING TWO COMPETING MID-LEVELS STEERING FLOWS, ONE GENERATED
BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE OTHER BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
DIAMONDRA IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
CURRENT POSITION IS HOWEVER DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE AND IS
MAINLY BASED ON 1942Z (GCOM) AND 1402Z (TRMM) MICRO-WAVES FIXES.
THIS ESTIMATED LOCATION IS HOWEVER CONSISTENT WITH THE 2321Z GPM
SWATH THAT HAS BEEN AVAILABLE TOO LATE TO BE USED.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON EXPERIENCING NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
DIAMONDRA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A
TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH.
AS DIAMONDRA TRACKS SOUTH-EASTWARDS IN THE SAME DIRECTION THAN THE
WINDSHEAR, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IT IS NOT
EXCLUDED THAT A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FROM SATURDAY, DIAMONDRA SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION,
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE MID-LATITUDES GENERAL
CIRCULATION.=
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08S DIAMONDRA 150128 0600 19.2S 79.3E SHEM 45 989

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Subtropical cyclone with 40 knots winds...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 80.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2S 82.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 1085 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND IS ASSESSED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG (40 TO 60
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. A 301244Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC WITH AN AREA
OF LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
301537Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 TO 120 NM, INDICATIVE
OF THE BROADENING WIND FIELD AND SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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08S DIAMONDRA 150131 1200 27.2S 85.2E SHEM 40 993